Chicago wheat futures closed Monday sharply higher, with December 2025 CBOT SRW settling at $5.44 1/4 per bushel, up 17 cents on the day. The rally was supported by broad strength across US wheat contracts and solid export activity, as weekly inspections reached 246,533 tons and remained about 19% ahead of last year’s pace for the marketing year, even though USDA did not publish a new Crop Progress report due to the recent shutdown.

Corn futures extended their recent strength, with December 2025 corn closing at $4.34 3/4 per bushel, up 4 1/2 cents. Export inspections were the strongest since April 2021 at 2.054 million tons, more than double last year’s volume for the same week, pushing marketing-year shipments 73% above a year ago and reinforcing the view that export demand is absorbing part of the heavy US supply.

Soybeans led the complex higher, with January 2026 futures finishing at $11.57 1/4 per bushel, up 32 3/4 cents, while the US national cash soybean price climbed more than 30 cents. The market reacted to record NOPA October crush of 227.65 million bushels and firm soymeal and soyoil futures, confirming that processing demand is exceptionally strong even as competition from Brazil intensifies.

One of the most important drivers behind Monday’s tone was confirmation of substantial US export demand built up during the government shutdown. USDA’s release of delayed daily “flash” sales showed 6.6 million tons sold in that period, including 4.9 million tons of corn and 1.3 million tons of soybeans, with large volumes to Mexico and meaningful tonnage to China. Combined with the very strong weekly export inspections for corn and respectable soybean shipments, this reinforced the message that international buyers used lower prices to secure forward coverage.

In South America, Brazil and Argentina remained central to market expectations. CEPEA reported that firm demand for soybean meal continues to sustain Brazilian soybean prices, even as spot trading stays slow due to a wide bid–ask gap. Conab projects Brazil’s soybean crop at a record 177.6 million tons on 49.06 million hectares, with exports seen at a new high of 112.11 million tons and soymeal and soyoil output also at or near record levels, while AgRural estimates soybean planting at 71% complete, slightly behind last year.

Brazilian corn fundamentals added to the global picture. Liquidity on the spot market is low, especially in the Central-West, but prices are firm to rising, with the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa corn index at 67.46 reals per 60-kg bag and up 2% so far in November. Exports may reach 4.33 million tons this month if the current pace holds, only just below last year, while Conab estimates 2026 total corn production at 138.4 million tons and domestic availability at a record 154.7 million tons when stocks and imports are included, confirming Brazil as a long-term price anchor.

On the wheat side, structural trade shifts were back in focus. Egypt, historically one of the world’s largest wheat importers, is targeting procurement of 5 million tons of local wheat next season as it pushes toward greater self-sufficiency, after state imports dropped sharply to about 1.6 million tons in the first half of the year under the new Future of Egypt purchasing system. At the same time, India is considering resuming exports of wheat products such as flour and semolina after more than three years of restrictions, supported by strong domestic stocks and expectations of a bumper crop following the best monsoon in five years, with an initial export quota of around 1 million tons under discussion.

Sweetener and vegetable oil markets also generated signals with implications for grains and oilseeds. India authorized exports of 1.5 million tons of sugar for the new season and removed its 50% duty on molasses exports, increasing the likelihood of additional sugar on world markets at a time when benchmark prices are already near five-year lows. In Malaysia, crude palm oil traded near 4,140 ringgit, and authorities confirmed the export tax will remain at the maximum 10% in December, helping to support palm values and shaping the competitive balance versus soyoil and other vegetable oils.

Trade policy developments in the US added another layer to the global demand outlook. President Donald Trump announced a rollback of tariffs on a wide range of food products, including beef, tomatoes and bananas, and unveiled framework trade deals with several Latin American countries aimed at eliminating tariffs on selected imports, against a backdrop of voter frustration over high grocery prices. In parallel, Washington is in talks with India to ease trade tensions and expand agricultural market access, while Trump has publicly stated that China is on track to buy US soybeans and other farm products before spring, reinforcing the prospect of continued Chinese engagement in US markets.

Energy and logistics risks remained in the background of grain trade. Russia’s Novorossiysk port, its largest Black Sea crude export hub, resumed oil loadings after a two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian missile and drone attack that temporarily halted exports equal to about 2% of global supply and pushed oil prices higher. The incident highlighted the vulnerability of Black Sea infrastructure that is also critical for grain exports, while in the US, an $85 billion proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern drew antitrust concerns from nine Republican state attorneys general, who warned of potential higher shipping costs and risks to agricultural producers.

Downstream demand signals from the meat sector added nuance to feedgrain and oilseed prospects. JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, indicated that US beef margins will likely remain under pressure through at least 2026 due to tight cattle supplies, with only gradual improvement expected in 2027. Persistently high beef prices, combined with political focus on food affordability and the still-strong demand for soybean meal in both the US and Brazil, underline how consumer purchasing power, animal protein demand and feed costs are increasingly interlinked.

Weather across key producing regions continued to influence forward-looking supply expectations. In North America, unseasonably warm conditions and several systems bringing moderate to heavy rainfall are set to improve soil moisture for winter wheat in the Midwest and Central Plains, though low Mississippi River levels still constrain barge transport. Argentina’s Pampas region remains cool with below-normal rainfall after a very wet front, with the risk that upcoming systems deliver only patchy showers and gradually erode otherwise favorable conditions, while Brazil sees a strong front moving from south to north and then stalling over central and northern regions, leaving southern corn and soybean areas at risk of moisture deficits as December approaches. Europe is experiencing scattered showers, falling temperatures and increasing snowfall as winter wheat heads into dormancy, the Black Sea region continues to struggle with dryness in southwestern Russia, Australia remains mixed with showers favoring the west as harvest accelerates, and China maintains mostly favorable conditions in the northeast and central regions but faces persistent dryness in the south that could weigh on sugarcane, rice and specialty crops.