Wheat futures in Chicago start Monday’s session on a firmer footing after last week’s pullback, with December 2025 SRW implied around $5.32 1/2 per bushel, reflecting Friday’s close at $5.27 1/4 plus overnight gains of 5 1/4 cents. The complex is trading against a clearly heavier fundamental backdrop: USDA has lifted 2025/26 US ending stocks by another 57 million bushels to 901 million, driven by an upward revision in production to 1.985 billion bushels, while world ending stocks have been raised by 7.37 million tons to 271.43 million on the back of bigger crops in Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia and the US. Yet, futures are also digesting supportive demand signals, from fresh US export sales of white wheat to Bangladesh to FranceAgriMer data showing 89% of French soft wheat already planted and 98% of the crop rated good to excellent, underpinning EU export potential even as global competition intensifies.
Corn opens the Chicago session with December 2025 futures implied near $4.32 1/4 per bushel, combining Friday’s $4.30 1/4 close with a 2-cent overnight advance, after a week that still left the contract modestly higher despite a sharp Friday setback. USDA’s long-delayed Crop Production update trimmed the national yield only slightly, to 186 bushels per acre, cutting output by 62 million bushels to 16.752 billion. Even so, the latest WASDE lifted 2024/25 carryout to 1.532 billion bushels and total 2025/26 supply to 18.309 billion, with stronger export demand (+100 million bushels) limiting the increase in projected ending stocks to 2.154 billion. World corn stocks have been nudged marginally lower to 281.34 million tons, mainly due to a 3.16-million-ton cut for China, while US markets also have to digest 4.9 million tons of “flash” corn sales booked during the recent government shutdown, a sizable demand pulse that helps offset the heavy supply narrative.
Soybean futures begin Monday with a more constructive tone after a weak Friday close, with the nearby November 2025 contract implied around $11.22 1/4 per bushel, incorporating Friday’s $11.12 3/4 settlement and an overnight gain of 9 1/2 cents. The market is balancing slightly tighter US fundamentals against a powerful Brazilian supply story. Domestically, updated Crop Production data put the US yield at 53 bushels per acre, 0.5 below the September figure, trimming production by 48 million bushels to 4.253 billion and pulling 2025/26 ending stocks down to 290 million. On the demand side, traders are positioning for another very strong October crush, with expectations around 209–210 million bushels and oil stocks near 1.25 billion pounds, while USDA has confirmed 1.3 million tons of soybean “flash” sales during the shutdown period, including 332,000 tons to China. At the same time, Conab projects Brazil’s soybean crop at a record 177.6 million tons with exports potentially reaching 112.11 million, while robust domestic demand for soybean meal continues to support Brazilian cash prices and reinforces the global competitive pressure on US beans.
Today’s trading session is framed by a powerful demand signal from the US export complex. USDA’s release of delayed daily “flash” export sales shows a total of 6.6 million tons booked during the shutdown window, including 4.9 million tons of corn and 1.3 million tons of soybeans, with over a million tons of corn going to Mexico and substantial soybean volumes to China and “unknown” destinations. These sales confirm that international buyers used the recent dip in prices to secure forward coverage, underpinning US export programs just as futures were confronting heavier supply projections. They come on top of Friday’s backlog of large corn sales totalling 4.915 million tons and sizable soybean meal business to the Philippines, reinforcing the idea that, despite record or near-record crops, demand is still very much alive in both the feed and crush chains.
On the wheat side, today’s headlines highlight a shifting global trade map anchored by policy decisions in key importing and producing countries. Egypt, long one of the world’s largest wheat importers, is now targeting procurement of 5 million tons of local wheat next season as it seeks to move toward self-sufficiency and reduce its reliance on the international market. The state’s share of imports has already dropped sharply to about 1.6 million tons in the first half of this year after purchasing responsibilities shifted from GASC to the military-linked Future of Egypt entity, which has abandoned formal tenders in favor of direct negotiations—fuelling trade tensions and a notable fall in imports. At the same time, India is considering resuming exports of wheat products such as flour and semolina after three years of restrictions, backed by ample domestic supplies and expectations of a bumper crop following the best monsoon in five years, with an initial export quota of around 1 million tons under discussion. Together, Egypt’s inward pivot and India’s potential return as an exporter could meaningfully alter wheat trade flows into Asia, Africa and the Middle East over the coming months.
Brazil and Argentina remain central to today’s soybean and corn narrative, with South American supply prospects interacting tightly with domestic demand and currency dynamics. In Brazil, CEPEA reports that firm demand for soybean meal continues to support soybean prices in the domestic market, even as spot trade moves sluggishly due to a wide bid–ask gap between buyers and sellers. The CEPEA/ESALQ indices for soybeans rose 0.5% in both Paranaguá and Paraná over the past week, while average wholesale prices edged 0.1% higher and farmgate values held steady. Conab’s latest update confirms that soybean area is projected at about 49.06 million hectares, with 58.4% already planted by November 8, and total production forecast at a record 177.6 million tons—3.6% above last season. Exports are projected to reach a new high of 112.11 million tons, while soymeal and soyoil output are also seen at or near record levels. These figures reinforce Brazil’s role as the primary origin in global oilseed trade, exerting strong competitive pressure on US exports and shaping crush margins worldwide.
Corn fundamentals in Brazil are equally pivotal for today’s market psychology. CEPEA notes that while liquidity remains low, especially in the Central-West where sellers are largely absent from the spot market, domestic prices are firm to slightly higher in many regions. On average, corn prices were stable in the wholesale market and rose 0.7% in the over-the-counter market between November 6 and 13, with the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa index closing at 67.46 reals per 60-kilogram bag and up 2% so far in November, the highest level of the semester. Brazil exported 1.14 million tons of corn in the first five working days of November and could reach 4.33 million tons for the month if the current pace holds, only slightly below last year’s volume. Conab projects first-crop corn area up 7.1% to 4.04 million hectares but with yields 3.1% lower, resulting in 25.9 million tons of production, while second- and third-crop volumes are expected to bring total 2026 output to 138.4 million tons, down 1.6% from 2025. Even so, record domestic availability of 154.7 million tons, thanks to high initial stocks and imports, underscores the medium-term potential for Brazil to remain an aggressive exporter and a key price anchor for the world market.
Weather is another dominant driver for today’s sentiment, with forecasts across the Americas, Europe, Australia and Asia shaping expectations for both current crop conditions and future supply. In North America, the US pattern remains unseasonably warm over the next 10 days, with moderate to heavy wet spells in the central US expected to improve soil moisture for winter wheat across the Midwest and Central Plains, even as low water levels on the Mississippi River continue to constrain barge traffic and raise transportation costs. In South America, Argentina’s Pampas region stays cool with below-normal rainfall after a front delivered widespread and mostly heavy precipitation over the weekend, keeping soil moisture high for now but raising concerns that subsequent fronts may bring only patchy showers, allowing conditions to slowly deteriorate into December. Brazil faces a contrasting pattern, with a front delivering heavy rain across the south and moving north, then stalling in central and northern areas later in the week; fronts rising from Argentina are increasingly unlikely to carry significant moisture into southern Brazil, which may be on the brink of worsening conditions for corn and soybeans right as the heart of the growing season approaches in December.
Beyond the Americas, weather developments across Europe, the Black Sea, Australia and Asia are also in focus for today’s trade. Much of Europe saw scattered showers over the weekend, with further waves of precipitation and falling temperatures expected this week; some of that moisture will fall as snow, and winter wheat is beginning to enter dormancy, particularly in northern regions. The Black Sea outlook remains more concerning: a couple of systems will pass through this week but are forecast to produce only limited showers, mostly in Ukraine and northwestern Russia, leaving southwestern Russia’s winter wheat belt under persistent dryness and in need of a much more active winter to secure good 2026 yield prospects. In Australia, scattered showers across the northeast contrasted with dry conditions in the southeast, while this week’s rainfall will favor western areas and leave the east drier, a pattern that is less beneficial now that wheat and canola are maturing and harvest is ramping up. China, for its part, maintains largely favorable conditions for completion of the corn and soybean harvest in the northeast and for winter wheat and canola establishment in central regions, though dryness in the south continues to threaten sugarcane, rice and specialty crops and is likely to persist through the end of November.
Vegetable oil markets are digesting a mix of policy and price signals that feed back into oilseed valuations. In Malaysia, crude palm oil is trading higher overnight around 4,140 ringgit, and authorities have confirmed that the export tax for December will remain at the maximum rate of 10%, based on a gazetted reference price of 4,206.38 ringgit per ton. The tax structure, which escalates from 3% when FOB prices are in the 2,250–2,400 ringgit range up to 10% above 4,050 ringgit, is keeping a floor under palm values even as demand in key importers such as India has recently favored cheaper soyoil. At the same time, India has approved sugar exports of 1.5 million tons for the new season as reduced diversion of sugar into ethanol leaves a larger domestic surplus, and it has removed its 50% duty on molasses exports. While these moves are specific to sugar, they add to the broader narrative of India re-engaging selectively with global food commodity markets after a period of tight export restrictions, with potential knock-on effects for trade flows and cross-commodity arbitrage in energy-linked agricultural products.
Energy and logistics developments are also relevant for today’s grain trade, as they influence freight costs and geopolitical risk premia. Russia’s Novorossiysk port, its largest Black Sea crude export hub, has resumed oil loadings after a two-day suspension following a Ukrainian missile and drone attack that had temporarily halted exports equivalent to around 2% of global supply and pushed oil prices up more than 2%. The attack damaged two oil berths and followed months of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, depots and pipelines, highlighting the persistent vulnerability of Black Sea infrastructure that is also critical for grain exports from the broader region. In the US, the proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern by Union Pacific, which would create the first coast-to-coast freight rail operator, has drawn antitrust concerns from nine Republican state attorneys general, who warn that the deal could weaken competition, raise shipping costs and harm agricultural producers and manufacturers. Their intervention introduces additional uncertainty into the long-term outlook for US rail logistics, even as current freight rail operations continue under pressure from volatile volumes, higher labor and fuel costs and intense scrutiny from shippers.
Finally, downstream demand and consumer affordability form an important backdrop for grain and oilseed markets as traders look beyond the farm gate. JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, has flagged that tight US cattle supplies will likely keep beef margins under pressure through at least 2026, with only gradual relief expected in 2027, implying continued high feed and meat costs in the medium term. In parallel, President Donald Trump has rolled back tariffs on a wide range of food products, including beef, tomatoes and bananas, following mounting concern over grocery price inflation and a series of political setbacks in key states where affordability has become a central issue. The administration has announced framework trade deals with several Latin American countries to eliminate tariffs on selected food imports, while maintaining its broader 10% base tariff on all imports. Economists and political opponents argue that earlier tariff policies contributed to higher consumer prices, and although the rollback could ease some inflationary pressure at the margin, it underscores the extent to which trade policy, food prices and voter sentiment are now tightly interwoven—an environment in which grain and oilseed markets will remain highly sensitive to any further shifts in tariffs, trade agreements or consumer demand indicators over the weeks ahead.