Chicago wheat futures eased into the close on Monday, with the December 2025 CBOT wheat contract settling at $5.36 per bushel, down 1½ cents as a mixed US wheat complex digested export data and crop ratings. Kansas City HRW finished 2–5 cents lower and Minneapolis spring wheat was steady to 2 cents down, even as Kansas winter wheat ratings improved to 70% good/excellent and export inspections reached 393,341 tons for the week to 4 December, now putting 2025/26 exports 20.9% ahead of last year. Traders are squaring positions ahead of today’s WASDE, where analysts look for a modest cut in US ending stocks to 894 million bushels and are watching Argus’ 23.9-million-ton estimate for Ukraine’s 2026/27 crop as another sign of ample future supply.

Corn futures also slipped, with December 2025 CBOT corn closing at $4.36¼ per bushel, down ½ cent, as the market balanced solid export flows with softer weekly sales. US corn export inspections reached 1.453 million tons last week, 36% above the same week in 2024, but catch-up Export Sales showed just 979,525 tons booked in the week to 6 November, a marketing-year low and below trade expectations. The national US cash corn index eased to $3.98¼, while open interest jumped by 8,511 contracts, underscoring active re-positioning ahead of WASDE, where consensus sees US ending stocks trimmed to 2.145 billion bushels. Brazilian fundamentals also framed sentiment, with AgRural pegging the 2025/26 corn crop at 135.3 million tons, down 5.8 million on the year and slightly above USDA’s current 131-million-ton figure.

Soybeans led the downside, with January 2026 CBOT soybeans settling at $10.93¾ per bushel, down 11½ cents, pressured by soft export metrics and strong South American competition. The US national cash soybean index fell 11½ cents to $10.23, while soymeal and soyoil also closed lower. Weekly US export inspections reached 1.018 million tons but remained 41.4% below year-ago levels, and catch-up Export Sales for the week to 6 November came in at just 510,554 tons, a marketing-year low. Traders are braced for WASDE to show US soybean ending stocks rising to about 306 million bushels, even as China continues to absorb large volumes and Brazil races toward a near-complete planting campaign under uneven rainfall.

Global wheat markets spent Monday digesting the implications of Argentina’s record 25.5-million-ton wheat crop, which is driving a logistics frenzy into the Rosario export hub and pushing farmer prices to eight-year lows. November truck deliveries to Rosario hit almost 2 million tons, double recent averages, while January FOB values near $206 per ton undercut US, Australian, Russian and French offers and help keep world prices anchored near multi-year lows. The glut is being amplified by quality problems, as much of the Argentine crop shows protein levels around 9–10% versus the country’s 11.5% export standard, widening discounts and opening space for higher-protein Russian wheat despite rising supplies from the Southern Hemisphere.

The Black Sea outlook turned more comfortable but not risk-free, adding to the bearish tone. SovEcon now sees Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest at 24.6 million tons, about 7% above the 2025 crop and the largest since 2022, thanks to a bigger winter wheat area of 5.2 million hectares and improved conditions after ample precipitation. APK-Inform also lifted its 2025 Ukraine grain forecast to 60.6 million tons, including 23.2 million tons of wheat and 30.5 million tons of corn, while Argus projects the 2026/27 wheat crop at 23.9 million tons. At the same time, Russian quality data show a higher share of milling wheat, and experts note that Russian grain may gain market share on quality even as Southern Hemisphere supply grows. With Russia’s export duty on wheat, barley and corn moving to zero from 10 December under the grain damper mechanism, Black Sea exporters are poised to remain ultra-competitive into early 2026.

Weather remains a central driver for both hemispheres. In South America, heavy rains across central and northern Brazil over the past week have been “sorely needed” for developing and reproductive soybeans, with another strong system early this week expected to bring widespread showers and keep conditions broadly favorable or improving. Farther south, however, the Pampas are staying cool and noticeably drier than normal: a system that moved through Sunday–Monday produced only patchy rainfall, and the below-normal pace of new showers is raising concerns that parts of Argentina could turn too dry for developing corn and soybeans if the pattern persists. In the Central-West of Brazil, Cepea notes that soybean producers are increasingly worried about irregular rainfall and low soil moisture, making the official 177-million-ton Conab crop projection look optimistic as sowing, at 86% nationwide by 29 November, lags last year’s pace.

In North America and Europe, weather and logistics continue to shape crop and transport risk. A train of clipper systems is bringing almost daily snow and precipitation to the US Northern Plains and Midwest this week, followed by another arctic blast late in the week that will briefly turn temperatures extremely cold before moderating. While such conditions can disrupt logistics, the accumulated snowpack will slowly feed into the Mississippi River system over winter, helping address low water levels that remain a concern for barge traffic. Across Europe, an active Atlantic pattern is delivering regular rainfall to the UK, France and Germany, maintaining good soil moisture for dormant winter wheat, with some showers in Spain as well. Warmer, drier conditions in Italy and the Balkans are less ideal, but soil moisture there is still generally adequate and dryness worries remain limited for now, even as Black Sea wheat faces another week of light showers, continued above-normal temperatures and lingering drought risk.

On the demand side and macro trade front, China stayed at the center of the story. November soybean imports reached 8.11 million tons, up 13.4% year-on-year and the highest November since 2021, pushing arrivals for the first 11 months to 103.79 million tons, 6.9% above last year. Analysts now expect 2025 imports to hit a record, potentially around 112 million tons, driven by strong commercial buying from Brazil and renewed US purchases under the so-called Busan arrangement. State buyer COFCO has booked about 2.7 million tons of US soybeans since late October, while state stockpiler Sinograin will auction 512,500 tons of imported beans on 11 December, its first sale in three months. A “deep and constructive” call between Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US officials Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer underscored that implementation of the trade truce is progressing, reducing the tail-risk of fresh tariff shocks for grain and oilseed flows.

Oilseed and vegetable oil markets drew support and resistance from overlapping factors. In Brazil, Cepea reports that soybean and by-product trading is slow as a wide gap between buyers’ and sellers’ prices curbs liquidity: crushers and exporters are well supplied and expect lower prices, while many farmers have solid cash positions and prefer to hold back spot sales. In Indonesia, deadly floods and landslides in Sumatra have so far had only limited impact on palm oil output, with industry group Gapki reporting just one company temporarily halting production for tank repairs, even as access roads to ports are being fixed. Malaysian palm oil futures nonetheless fell 59 ringgit, or 1.42%, to 4,093, while Chinese January agricultural futures for soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and corn also traded lower, reflecting comfortable nearby supplies and high inventories across the oilseed complex.

Policy and regulatory moves in key producers added another layer to the backdrop. Indonesia’s government aims to seize 4 million hectares of land used illegally for mining, palm and forestry by year-end and has already taken control of 3.77 million hectares, while ordering dozens of palm and mining companies to pay hefty fines, with only a fraction paid so far. Egypt signaled stronger medium-term wheat demand and food security ambitions by planning to expand its wheat area to 3.5 million feddans in 2026 from 3.2 million in 2025. Meanwhile, robust US poultry slaughter, up 0.7% year-on-year in October with higher live chicken weights and fewer post-mortem condemnations, points to steady feed demand for corn and soymeal, even as producers remain cost-sensitive in a world where nearby SRW wheat futures are still down 2% year-to-date, corn 4.7%, soymeal 1.2%, while soybeans and soyoil are up 10% and 28.4% respectively.

In Brazil’s corn belt, domestic dynamics remained notably firm and are increasingly relevant for global feed markets. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa corn index climbed back to BRL 69.97 per 60-kg bag on 4 December, a level not seen since May 2025 and about 2% higher than late November, as buyers moved to replenish stocks for late 2025 and early 2026 while farmers, preoccupied with planting and crop development, limited spot offers and hoped for higher prices. Cepea reports that some buyers are already stepping back from the spot market, betting that the approaching summer harvest, large domestic surpluses and slower-than-expected exports will eventually force more selling as producers free up storage or generate cash. In Mato Grosso, 81.11% of the crop had been marketed by mid-November, slightly behind last season and below the five-year average, suggesting there is still substantial grain to be priced into the market.