Wheat

Chicago wheat is starting Tuesday on a steady note, with the December 2025 CBOT contract trading around $5.36 per bushel, unchanged from Monday’s close after slipping 1½ cents in the previous session. Overnight trade has SRW up 2½ cents, HRW up 3½ and spring wheat flat, as the market digests mixed US fundamentals: Kansas winter wheat ratings have improved to 70% good/excellent, open interest in SRW rose by 2,131 contracts, and weekly export inspections reached 393,341 tons, now putting 2025/26 exports 20.9% ahead of last year. Attention is firmly on today’s WASDE, where analysts look for US ending stocks near 894 million bushels, while Argentina’s move to cut wheat export taxes by two points to 7.5% adds another layer of competitiveness from the Southern Hemisphere alongside expectations that Ukraine’s 2026–27 wheat crop will rise to about 23.9 million tons.

Corn

Corn futures are firmer into Tuesday’s session, with December 2025 CBOT corn trading near $4.37 per bushel, about three-quarters of a cent above Monday’s close at $4.36¼ after prices finished the day fractionally to 2 cents lower. Overnight moves have corn up 3½ cents, while the US national cash index sits just under $4.00 at $3.98¼, and open interest fell by 2,257 contracts as traders squared positions ahead of WASDE. Export inspections showed 1.453 million tons shipped in the week to 4 December, down 10.9% on the week but 36% above a year earlier, with Mexico, Japan and Taiwan leading destinations, even as catch-up Export Sales for the week to 6 November came in at a marketing-year low of 979,525 tons. Markets are bracing for USDA to project US ending stocks around 2.145 billion bushels, a modest trim from November, against a backdrop of strong year-on-year shipment growth and a South Korean tender for 132,000 tons of corn whose origin is still open.

Soybeans

Soybeans are softer at the start of Tuesday trade, with January 2026 CBOT soybeans hovering around $10.87¾ per bushel, about 6 cents below Monday’s settlement at $10.93¾ after the market shed 8–11½ cents across most contracts in the prior session. Overnight, front-month beans are down 5–6 cents, soymeal is weaker and soyoil has slipped despite a still-bullish year-to-date gain of about 28% in the oil leg. US export inspections for the week to 4 December reached 1.018 million tons, 10.6% above the previous week but 41.4% below a year earlier, while catch-up Export Sales data for early November showed just 510,554 tons of new bookings, a marketing-year low even though China accounted for 232,000 tons. With US soybean ending stocks expected to be revised up to roughly 306 million bushels today and Argentina announcing a 2-point cut in soybean export tax to 24% (and products to 22.5%), the market is leaning lower despite underlying support from Chinese demand and advanced but still weather-sensitive Brazilian planting.

Key Global Drivers for Today’s Session

Across the broader complex, macro policy and farm support are in sharp focus after President Donald Trump unveiled a $12 billion aid package aimed at farmers hurt by the trade war and high input costs. Some $11 billion will go directly to row-crop producers such as corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat by 28 February, with the remaining $1 billion reserved for fruits, vegetables and other crops, funded via the Commodity Credit Corporation and justified as a “liquidity bridge” until trade deals and tariff revenues catch up. Farm groups and Republican lawmakers see the package as critical to covering seed, fertilizer and other costs for the next growing season, while critics argue that ending tariff conflicts would offer more lasting certainty; nevertheless, the program underpins near-term planting decisions and credit conditions across the US grain belt.

Trade policy rhetoric is also rippling through input and competing-crop markets. Trump signaled he could impose new tariffs on Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice, arguing that cheap imports are undercutting US farmers and promising to “take care” of alleged dumping from India, Vietnam and Thailand. With Canada the largest supplier of potash to the US and phosphate already subject to trade frictions, any additional levies could push fertilizer prices higher just as farmers grapple with tight margins. At the same time, China’s latest CASDE report lifted cotton consumption and output forecasts and nudged edible vegetable-oil production higher via better cottonseed-oil yields, reinforcing a broadly well-supplied but still growing oilseed and veg-oil balance that interacts with soybean and palm-oil pricing.

Export flows and inspections data continue to shape demand sentiment. For the week ending 4 December, US inspectors cleared 1.453 million tons of corn, 1.018 million tons of soybeans and 393,000 tons of wheat for export, with Mexico topping the list for both corn and wheat and also featuring prominently in soybean receipts. Back-dated USDA Export Sales for the week to 6 November confirmed China as the largest soybean buyer at 232,000 tons and Japan leading corn purchases at 358,000 tons, while pork and beef sales to key Asian buyers, notably South Korea, underline steady downstream feed demand. Although soybean sales lag last year’s pace sharply and corn bookings hit a seasonal low, the shipment pace for corn and wheat remains ahead of 2024, tempering outright bearishness on US export competitiveness.

South American weather and production prospects are another central driver today. Persistent rains across most Brazilian crop areas over the next couple of weeks are expected to alleviate drought worries in the south and create a broadly favorable outlook, even as localized flooding becomes a risk. AgRural reports Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean planting at 94% complete as of 4 December, one point behind last year but helped by recent rains in Mato Grosso and the MATOPIBA frontier states, while warning that low humidity in Rio Grande do Sul remains a concern. On corn, the same consultancy sees Brazil’s total 2025/26 output slipping 4.1% from last season’s record to 135.3 million tons, with first-crop planting in the Center-South nearly finished and attention now turning to hotter, drier conditions in the south that could trim yields if they persist.

More broadly, global weather patterns are supportive but not entirely benign. In South America, the Pampas stays cool with below-normal rainfall, raising flags for Argentine corn and soybeans despite an overall cooling trend, while Paraguay looks set for cool, wet conditions that favor its row-crop outlook. North America faces a series of clipper systems bringing almost daily snow to the Northern Plains and Midwest, followed by another short arctic blast late this week; that combination can temporarily disrupt logistics but will gradually recharge the Mississippi River system after earlier low-water constraints. Europe is heading into 15 days of warmer-than-average temperatures with generally below-normal precipitation outside the UK, southern Spain and Scandinavia, a pattern that keeps winter wheat mostly comfortable but leaves parts of the Balkans and Italy vulnerable if dryness stretches on, while much of Asia sees near-normal to cooler temperatures and above-normal rainfall across Southeast Asia, south China, South Korea and Japan.

Black Sea and Atlantic export channels are also in the spotlight. Argus now expects Ukraine’s 2026–27 wheat harvest to reach 23.9 million tons, up 4% from 2025–26 and a five-year high on the back of a small increase in area to 5.2 million hectares and better soil moisture, reinforcing the country’s role as a key supplier despite ongoing logistical and geopolitical risks. In Russia, Novorossiysk Grain Plant exported 734,950 tons of grain in November, up 20% year-on-year, even though January–November shipments are down 41% after this year’s export quota; the terminal still handled about 15% of Russia’s wheat exports in 2024, highlighting the capacity waiting to be tapped if policy constraints ease. Meanwhile, Brazil’s wheat trade has flipped gears after harvest: November exports jumped to 121,160 tons, the highest since March, at an average FOB price of $225 per ton, while imports dropped to 414,560 tons, the lowest in nearly two years, underscoring the country’s growing seasonal presence on the export side.

Chinese demand and stock management remain powerful swing factors for oilseeds and veg-oils. State stockpiler Sinograin will auction 512,500 tons of imported soybeans on 11 December, its first such sale in three months following the recent US–China trade truce, and market participants are watching closely for signs that the auction is making space for additional US purchases. At the same time, China’s agriculture ministry kept its 2025–26 corn and soybean balance largely unchanged but highlighted heavy early-December rain and snow in the northeast, warning that continued adverse conditions could hamper logistics. On the futures side, January Chinese agricultural contracts for soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and corn are trading mostly lower, reflecting comfortable nearby supplies and high inventories even as underlying import programs remain robust.

In the oilseed and veg-oil complex, signals are mixed but important for grains. Malaysian palm oil futures were up 13 ringgit overnight to 4,106, even as Chinese veg-oil futures softened, while deadly floods and landslides in Sumatra have so far had limited impact on palm-oil output, with only one producer briefly halting operations for tank repairs. In Afghanistan, the inauguration of a new private oilseeds processing plant in Nangarhar, with capacity to crush 200 tons of grain per day and relying mainly on local crops, points to incremental regional demand for oilseeds and potential shifts in exports of raw versus processed products. Combined with Brazil’s slow farmer selling of soybeans due to comfortable cash positions and the expectation of lower prices from crushers and exporters, these developments keep veg-oil markets highly sensitive to any fresh supply or policy shock.

Finally, structural and policy shifts continue to influence input, logistics and price risks around the world. The US export inspections and sales data for pork and beef, with South Korea as a leading buyer, confirm steady protein demand and indirectly support feed use for corn and soymeal. In the US Delta, the clipper-driven pattern is keeping conditions mostly dry, allowing Mississippi water levels to fall slowly and leaving barge freight costs and navigation as lingering concerns. And with fertilizers recently added to the US critical-minerals list, any move to impose tariffs on Canadian potash or other key inputs could materially alter cost structures for grain producers heading into the 2026 planting cycle, capping the downside for futures even in an environment of broadly comfortable global grain and oilseed supplies.