Wheat

In early Monday trade on 8 December, the December 2025 CBOT wheat contract is hovering around $5.41 per bushel, about 3 cents above Friday’s close at $5.37½ after a week that left Chicago SRW slightly higher, HRW firmer and HRS broadly steady. Futures remain under broader pressure from abundant global supply, with nearby SRW prices still down around 2% year-to-date and HRW off more than 6%, underlining how difficult it is for the market to sustain rallies despite occasional short-covering and weather scares. Managed money has sharply reduced but still maintains a substantial net short, while commercials are cautiously positioned ahead of this week’s USDA WASDE update and delayed export sales data.

Corn

Corn is starting Monday’s session with a slightly firmer tone, with the December 2025 CBOT corn contract trading near $4.37 per bushel, just above Friday’s close at $4.36¾ after a week that saw small losses and modest pressure on cash basis levels. Nearby Chicago corn futures are down close to 5% year-to-date, reflecting heavy old-crop stocks and a comfortable global balance sheet, yet managed money has significantly trimmed its net short, hinting at some reluctance to press prices lower ahead of fresh US export sales and WASDE numbers. The national US cash corn index is sitting just under $4.00 per bushel, and open interest has risen, pointing to fresh positioning rather than outright liquidation as traders calibrate to renewed South American weather risk and evolving export competition.

Soybeans

Soybeans are opening the week slightly firmer after a sharp setback on Friday, with the January 2026 CBOT soybean contract trading just above $11.05 per bushel in early Monday dealings, having closed at $11.05¼ and now edging about a quarter of a cent higher. Futures are still under pressure after losing nearly 30 cents last week and close to 40 cents so far in December, even as soybeans remain roughly 10% higher year-to-date and soy oil more than 28% higher amid broader strength in vegetable oil markets. Managed money has built a large net long in soybeans, while commercials hold their largest net short since May 2022, underscoring a market crowded with speculative length into a period of heightened South American weather uncertainty and heavy Chinese import activity.

Key Global Drivers for Today’s Session

For today’s trading session, one of the most important cross-market themes is the tug-of-war between ample supply from the Southern Hemisphere and improving but still uneven crop prospects elsewhere. Argentina’s record 25.5-million-ton wheat crop is flooding the Rosario hub with deliveries and pushing FOB offers down to roughly $206 per ton for January shipment, undercutting many competing origins. At the same time, Australia has upgraded its own wheat harvest outlook, while Egypt is planning to grow more domestic wheat in 2026 and Ukraine is on track for a larger crop in 2026 than in 2025. Collectively, these developments cement the perception of comfortable wheat supplies into the next marketing year and cap rally attempts, even if quality issues in Argentina create niche demand for higher-protein Russian and other origins.

The Black Sea remains a focal point for both supply and risk. SovEcon’s first projection for Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest at around 24.6 million tons — about 7% above the prior season and the largest since 2022 — reflects a significant increase in winter wheat area and improved crop conditions after ample precipitation. Analysts also see Ukraine’s broader 2025 grain harvest rising to about 60.6 million tons on stronger wheat and corn output, confirming its role as a key export origin in the medium term. Yet dryness and drought remain a concern in parts of the Black Sea region this winter, with some areas still too warm for full dormancy and only light showers expected, meaning that yield risks have not disappeared even as near-term crop assessments improve.

On the demand side, China’s soybean import surge and the evolving US-China trade relationship are central to today’s sentiment in oilseeds and, by extension, the broader grains complex. Chinese customs data confirm November imports at their highest since 2021, while cumulative arrivals so far this year have already topped 103 million tons and are on track for a record near or above 112 million tons for 2025. This strength is driven by aggressive buying from Brazil and a resumption of US purchases under the so-called Busan arrangement, under which the US has agreed to trim some tariffs in exchange for renewed Chinese buying and cooperation on other issues such as fentanyl and rare earths. A recent “in-depth and constructive” call between China’s vice premier and senior US officials suggests the trade truce is holding, reducing the tail-risk of a renewed tariff shock for soybean flows even if political noise remains.

South American weather continues to be a key driver of intraday volatility across wheat, corn and soybeans. In Brazil, heavy rains across central and northern regions over the past week have replenished soil moisture for developing and reproductive soybeans, while southern areas still have generally favorable profiles despite a slower pace of showers. A stronger system expected early this week should bring widespread rainfall, supporting near-term yield prospects. In Argentina, however, rainfall has become more sporadic; while a system brought patchy rain over the weekend and into Monday, the broader pattern has turned drier than normal and is raising concerns that parts of the Pampas could become too dry for developing corn and soybeans if the trend persists — a risk that could eventually provide a floor under prices if yields are cut.

Broader weather patterns across key Northern Hemisphere regions are also influencing market expectations around winter crops and logistics. North America faces a sequence of clipper systems bringing snow, variable precipitation and another arctic blast late this week, conditions that can temporarily disrupt transport but also help build snow cover and replenish water systems such as the Mississippi, which is still dealing with low river levels and slow falls in water depth. Europe is entering a spell of above-normal temperatures with active Atlantic systems delivering regular rainfall to the UK, France, Germany and parts of Spain, which is supportive for dormant winter wheat, while Italy and the Balkans turn warmer and drier, though soil moisture there remains adequate for now. Australia, by contrast, is seeing mostly dry weather with only limited showers, a mixed backdrop as wheat and canola harvests progress and cotton and sorghum move through early growth stages.

Market structure and positioning are adding another layer to today’s price action. Across Chicago wheat, corn and soybeans, recent CFTC data show funds aggressively cutting net shorts in wheat and corn while increasing net length in soybeans, leaving the complex more vulnerable to both profit-taking and headline-driven swings. Open interest has climbed in wheat and corn and fallen in soybeans, with the latter driven largely by long liquidation in the front-month January contract. The upcoming USDA WASDE report and the release of delayed export sales data are important catalysts this week; trade expectations point to slightly lower US ending stocks for wheat and corn and modestly higher stocks for soybeans, a configuration that could reinforce the current relative value pattern of softer grains and still-supported oilseeds if confirmed.

Domestic markets and policy shifts in key exporting countries are also shaping the global price landscape for today’s session. Brazil’s corn market is seeing firmer spot prices as buyers rebuild inventories and farmers hold back sales amid climate uncertainties and tight on-farm cash needs, while the soybean market is hamstrung by low liquidity and a wide bid-ask spread as producers wait for clearer yield signals before committing to additional forward sales. In Russia, the government’s decision to set export duties on wheat, barley and corn at zero as of 10 December, under the grain damper mechanism, is making Black Sea grain even more competitive on world markets and could pressure rival exporters’ prices. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s government continues its push to seize millions of hectares of land illegally used for mining, palm oil and forestry and to enforce sizable fines on non-compliant companies, a campaign that, together with recent deadly floods in Sumatra that have so far had limited impact on palm oil output, is being watched closely by vegetable oil traders looking for any sign of supply disruption.

Finally, downstream demand indicators and alternative oilseed markets round out the backdrop for grains in today’s trade. In the US, poultry slaughter in October rose modestly year-on-year, with higher live chicken weights and fewer post-mortem condemnations, pointing to steady feed demand for corn and soymeal even as producers remain cost-sensitive. In Asia, Chinese agricultural futures — including soybeans, soymeal and corn — are trading lower, reflecting comfortable nearby supplies and the impact of high inventories, while Malaysian palm oil futures have slipped more than 1% overnight amid expectations of stable Indonesian output despite flood damage and ongoing land-use enforcement. Taken together, these signals suggest that while the fundamental balance for grains and oilseeds remains relatively well supplied in the near term, today’s market is highly reactive to incremental news on South American weather, Chinese buying and Black Sea export flows — a recipe for continued bursts of volatility even within a broadly subdued price range.