Chicago Futures – Wheat, Corn, Soybeans

Wheat closed Tuesday mixed but slightly firmer in Chicago, with December 2025 CBOT wheat settling at $5.36¼ per bushel, up ¼ cent on the day as traders digested a largely steady WASDE and stronger global production signals. US ending stocks were left unchanged at 901 million bushels, though class balances shifted, with hard red spring stocks up and white wheat down, while world wheat stocks were lifted by 3.44 MMT on higher output in Canada, Australia, Argentina, the EU and Russia. Managed money trimmed its net short in Chicago wheat to about 70,600 contracts, and fresh EU data showed soft wheat exports only marginally behind last year, even as Coceral cut its 2026 EU+UK crop estimate and Argentina announced a cut in wheat export tax to 7.5%.

Corn led the upside among grains, with December 2025 CBOT corn closing at $4.40¾ per bushel, up 4½ cents after a bullish WASDE cut US ending stocks by 125 million bushels to 2.029 billion, entirely via higher export projections. World 2025/26 corn stocks were trimmed to 279.15 MMT, despite a larger Argentine carryover, as lower US and Ukrainian output more than offset the increase. Speculators reduced their net short by nearly 18,000 contracts to around 71,500, while the national US cash corn index climbed to $4.03½ and export inspections remained robust at 1.453 million tons for the week, even as weekly sales data showed a seasonal low.

Soybeans extended recent losses, with January 2026 CBOT soybeans settling at $10.87¼ per bushel, down 6½ cents, pressured by soft export demand and cautious WASDE signals. USDA left the US balance sheet unchanged, keeping ending stocks at 290 million bushels, while world soybean stocks edged only slightly higher to 122.37 MMT and South American production estimates were held steady. A delayed CFTC report highlighted how crowded the long side has become, with managed money adding over 60,000 contracts to reach a net long of 178,683 as of early November, the biggest two-week bullish build on record, even as the US cash bean index slipped to $10.18¼ and soymeal and soyoil futures also closed lower.

Global Drivers and Key Headlines

Across the grain complex, the combination of a market-moving WASDE and fresh US policy signals set the tone on Tuesday. USDA’s update delivered a clearly supportive surprise for corn, trimming US ending stocks by 125 million bushels on stronger exports, while leaving soybean and wheat balances largely unchanged and nudging global corn stocks lower. At the same time, world wheat stocks were lifted on bigger crops in Canada, Australia, Argentina, the EU and Russia, reinforcing the idea of comfortable wheat supply even as corn tightened slightly at the margin.

US farm policy was also in the spotlight after President Donald Trump formally unveiled a 12-billion-dollar aid package for farmers squeezed by the trade war and high input costs. About 11 billion dollars will go directly to row-crop producers such as corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat by 28 February, with another 1 billion set aside for fruits, vegetables and other crops, framed as a “liquidity bridge” until tariff revenues and new trade deals catch up. The announcement underpinned confidence in farm cash flow and 2026 planting plans, even as critics argued that scaling back tariffs would provide a more durable solution.

Trade frictions remained a risk factor in their own right as Trump signalled he could impose new tariffs on Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice, arguing that cheap imports are undercutting US producers. Any such move would come on top of recent price increases in potash and phosphate and would land just as fertilizers have been added to the US critical-minerals list, raising the prospect of higher input costs for the 2026 season. At the same time in Asia, China’s latest CASDE report raised cotton consumption and output forecasts and slightly increased edible vegetable-oil production via higher cottonseed-oil yields, underlining a broadly well-supplied but still growing oilseed and veg-oil balance that feeds back into soybean and palm-oil pricing.

Export flows and inspections data helped anchor the demand side of the story. For the week ending 4 December, the US inspected 1.453 million tons of corn, 1.018 million tons of soybeans and 393,000 tons of wheat for export, with Mexico leading receipts for both corn and wheat and also featuring prominently in soybean loadings. Back-dated USDA Export Sales for the week to 6 November confirmed China as the top soybean buyer with 232,000 tons and Japan as the largest corn buyer with 358,000 tons, while pork and beef sales to Asian markets, led by South Korea, highlighted resilient downstream protein demand that indirectly supports feed use.

South American weather and production prospects stayed central to near-term price risk. In Brazil, persistent rains across most crop areas are expected to ease drought concerns in the south and create a broadly favourable outlook, even as localized flooding risks emerge. Consultancy AgRural now pegs Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean planting at 94% complete as of 4 December, only one point behind last year thanks to improved conditions in Mato Grosso and the MATOPIBA frontier, while warning that low humidity in Rio Grande do Sul remains a concern. On corn, AgRural’s first estimate points to a 4.1% drop in Brazil’s total output to 135.3 million tons compared with last season’s record, with first-crop planting in the Center-South practically finished and yields in the south increasingly dependent on how long the hotter, drier pattern persists.

More broadly, global weather patterns looked supportive but not risk-free for grains and oilseeds. The Argentine Pampas remains cool with below-normal rainfall, raising questions over corn and soybean yield potential despite a broader cooling trend, while Paraguay faces a cool, wet spell that should favour row crops. In North America, a train of clipper systems is bringing frequent snow to the Northern Plains and Midwest ahead of another short arctic blast later this week, potentially disrupting logistics in the short term but gradually recharging the Mississippi River system after earlier low-water constraints. Europe heads into roughly 15 days of above-normal temperatures and generally below-normal precipitation outside the UK, southern Spain and Scandinavia, conditions that keep winter wheat mostly comfortable but could leave parts of the Balkans and Italy more exposed if dryness drags on, while much of Asia sees near-normal to cooler temperatures and above-normal rainfall across Southeast Asia, south China, South Korea and Japan.

Black Sea and Atlantic export channels added another important layer to the supply picture. Argus now expects Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat harvest to reach 23.9 million tons, up 4% from 2025/26 and a five-year high, on slightly larger area and better soil moisture, reinforcing the country’s role as a key medium-term exporter despite ongoing logistical and geopolitical risks. In Russia, the Novorossiysk Grain Plant terminal shipped 734,950 tons of grain in November, up 20% year-on-year even though January–November exports are down 41% because of quotas, while in Brazil the end of harvest has flipped wheat trade flows: exports in November jumped to 121,160 tons, the highest since March, at an average FOB price near 225 dollars per ton, and imports fell to their lowest level in almost two years, underlining Brazil’s growing seasonal presence on the export side.

In the broader oilseed and veg-oil complex, signals were mixed but remained closely watched by grain traders. China’s state stockpiler Sinograin has scheduled an auction of 512,500 tons of imported soybeans on 11 December, its first such sale in three months, which many in the market see as a move to free storage for additional US purchases after the recent trade truce. Malaysian palm oil futures rose 13 ringgit to 4,106 even as Chinese veg-oil futures softened, while deadly floods and landslides in Sumatra have so far had only limited impact on palm-oil output, with just one producer briefly shutting down for tank repairs. In Afghanistan, the opening of a new private oilseeds processing plant in Nangarhar, capable of crushing 200 tons of grain per day using mainly local crops, points to incremental regional demand for oilseeds and a gradual shift from exports of raw material to higher-value processed products. All of this plays out against a backdrop where any further tariff moves on fertilizers or other key inputs could still reshape cost structures and cap the downside for futures, even as near-term global balances for grains and oilseeds remain relatively comfortable.