Wheat

Chicago wheat eked out a fractional gain into Tuesday’s close as spring led and winter contracts lagged. December ’25 CBOT settled at $5.36/bu, up ¼¢, with KC HRW steady to 4¢ lower and Minneapolis up 5–6¢. Flow remained two-sided as traders weighed modest U.S. inspection totals at 291k t alongside steady tender interest and a firmer Black Sea FOB backdrop.

Corn

Corn firmed, helped by resilient export flow and positioning ahead of Friday’s Crop Production/WASDE. December ’25 finished at $4.32/bu, up 2¼¢, while the U.S. cmdtyView national cash average ticked to $3.92¾. Inspections printed 1.425m t and a Reuters poll pointed to a leaner U.S. yield and output versus September; Bloomberg’s survey had harvest near 92% complete through Nov 9.

Soybeans

Soybeans eased despite a firmer product tone in vegoils, with November ’25 closing at $11.13¼/bu, down 2¾¢. Deliveries rose by another 125 overnight to 1,707 for the month, inspections reached 1.089m t led by Pakistan, while meal softened $2.00–$3.10 and soyoil climbed 41–54 points into the bell.

Trade normalization signals: Canada–China canola

Ottawa signaled an improving outlook for canola trade with Beijing following a ministerial visit—no firm timeline, but clearly warmer dialogue. For oilseed flows, any easing of restrictions into 2026 would add flexibility to crush/meal/vegoil balances and diversify Asian sourcing beyond the current heavy reliance on South American origins.

U.S. export pulse and harvest cadence

USDA inspections underscored steady demand despite recent volatility: corn 1.425m t, soybeans 1.089m t, wheat 291k t. Analysts see U.S. corn harvest ~92% and soybeans ~96% done through Nov 9, a profile that typically steadies basis and funnels logistics toward shipment programs into late November.

China widens feed inputs from Brazil

Beijing cleared Brazilian plants to export sorghum (10 facilities) and corn-based DDG/DDGS (5 facilities), creating a regularized channel for alternative feed inputs. The approvals align with Brazil’s rising corn-ethanol output and should improve contract predictability for Chinese buyers while reshaping regional feed spreads over time.

Brazil’s crop pulse: bigger corn, rapid planting

Private updates lifted Brazil 2025/26 corn to 143.6 MMT on slightly higher area and stronger yield ideas. Soybean planting hit 61% of area by Nov 6, up sharply week-on-week, while Center-South summer corn reached 72%—a pace that keeps South American supply prospects constructive barring weather setbacks.

Black Sea watch: prices, quotas, next crop

Russian 12.5% FOB wheat edged to $232–233/t for mid-December amid seasonal storage costs. SovEcon’s first look pegs Russia’s 2026 wheat near 83.8 MMT (below 2025) on lower plantings, while a proposed 20 MMT export quota for Feb 15–Jun 30, 2026 is seen broadly neutral versus expected flows. Weekly shipment pace remains firm.

Brazilian wheat differentials and policy levers

Brazil’s harvest pressure eased values in Rio Grande do Sul while Paraná/São Paulo held steadier. With farm prices below government minimums in parts of the South, Brasília released BRL 67m to move 250k t via Pepro/Pep auctions—aimed at drawing supply from surplus regions and stabilizing spot markets.

Thailand opens a larger feed-corn window

Bangkok approved a 1 MMT feed-corn quota at 0% tariff for 2026 (Feb 1–Jun 30), replacing this year’s small, taxed allowance and tying imports to domestic purchase obligations. The structure should pull additional optional-origin corn into Southeast Asia and reshape regional spreads during that window.

Weather and market internals

North America warms through late November, favoring fieldwork; Argentina’s Pampas trend drier for 10–15 days, aiding corn/soy plantings; central/northern Brazil stay showery for soybean establishment; East Asia remains mostly dry for China’s winter-wheat seeding window. Malaysian palm oil futures rose 25 ringgit to 4,137 as output and inventories climbed but exports surprised to the upside, while U.S. OI shifts showed SRW/HRW reductions and fresh length in soy—consistent with a choppy but demand-supported tape.