Wheat opened Tuesday on a defensive note. Early in Chicago, Mar ’26 CBOT SRW wheat was indicated around $5.15 1/2/bu (based on Monday’s $5.20 3/4 close and early Tuesday weakness), as traders weighed solid export inspections against softer export sales and persistent fund pressure. Weekly inspections were 488,025 MT, but the backlogged export sales update for Nov. 20 was 361,715 MT, and specs added to net shorts; France’s 2026 soft wheat area estimate also nudged higher to 4.56 mln ha, reinforcing supply-side focus.

Corn started Tuesday slightly lower as the market digested firm export flow alongside shifting positioning. Mar ’26 CBOT corn was indicated around $4.38 1/2/bu (vs. Monday’s $4.39 3/4 close), with attention still on strong inspections (1.589 MMT for the week ending Dec. 11), a backlogged export-sales catch-up of 1.84 MMT (week ending Nov. 20), and managed money flipping back to a net short (-10,872)—a setup that can amplify day-to-day volatility.

Soybeans opened Tuesday fractionally firmer after Monday’s dip, but the tone stayed choppy as policy and China headlines collided. Jan ’26 CBOT beans were indicated around $10.72 1/2/bu (vs. Monday’s $10.71 3/4 close), with traders parsing weakish inspections (795,661 MT, sharply lower y/y), big backlogged export sales (2.232 MMT for Nov. 20, including 2.14 MMT to China), and a Reuters-reported delay suggesting EPA’s 2026 biofuel (RVO) finalization is unlikely until next year.

Macro policy risk is back in the driver’s seat for the oilseed complex, with the market explicitly flagging uncertainty around the timing of U.S. 2026 biofuel targets—an issue that feeds directly into expectations for veg-oil demand and crush economics, and by extension sentiment across grains via feedstock linkages.

South America remains the weather fulcrum: central Brazil is trending wet enough to raise “excess moisture/local flooding” concerns later in December, even as that rainfall supports near-term development for soybeans and early corn; at the same time, dryness risk is still being monitored for parts of southern Brazil and the Argentine Pampas.

The U.S. export “pulse” was mixed but still market-moving. Inspections for the week ending Dec. 11 showed corn 1.583m tons, soybeans 796k tons, and wheat 488k tons, with Mexico leading corn destinations and the Philippines leading wheat—numbers that keep demand in the conversation even when futures are weather- and policy-led.

Backlogged U.S. export sales data reinforced the divergence by crop: soybeans 2.321m tons (vs 696k prior week), corn 1.843m tons, and wheat 369k tons—with China the top soybean buyer (2.14m tons) and Japan the top corn buyer (686k tons), a demand map that keeps the market hyper-sensitive to any trade-policy shifts.

Processing signals kept oilseeds tightly tethered to renewable-fuels math. NOPA reported a November crush of 216.041 million bushels (down from October’s record but still a record for November), while soyoil stocks rose to a seven-month high of 1.513 billion pounds—a combination that matters more when biofuel policy timing is unclear.

China-side soy headlines stayed active as Sinograin sold about 323,000 MT (roughly 62.9% of offered volume) in its second December auction, and the same source pack notes another auction is scheduled—signals of stock rotation and near-term flow management that can tug on import demand pacing.

Europe added a fresh supply datapoint: France projected 2026 winter soft wheat area at 4.56 million hectares (+2.3% y/y) and winter rapeseed at 1.34 million hectares (+6.4%), with commentary pointing to better crop conditions than a year ago—an update that can influence Euronext tone and cross-market spreads.

Finally, non-grain headlines still matter at the margins for risk and flow: a Russian grain trader (Pallada) filed a lawsuit against Syria’s state grain company, underscoring payment/counterparty fragility in parts of the import complex, while China announced anti-dumping duties of up to 19.8% on certain EU pork products from Dec. 17, a reminder that trade measures can spill into broader ag sentiment (feed and protein demand expectations included).