Wheat

Chicago wheat faded into the close as winter contracts slipped while spring held steadier. December ’25 CBOT settled at $5.27¾/bu, down 7¾¢ on the day, with KC HRW also softer and Minneapolis near unchanged. Traders kept one eye on persistent dryness across key SRW and Southern Plains zones and another on fresh demand signals after a South Korean mill booked 50,000 t of U.S. wheat. French fieldwork continued to catch up, with soft wheat 79% planted, and Argentina’s harvest advanced to 11.6%, framing a mixed global backdrop.

Corn

Corn eased modestly as futures lost 1–2¢, with December ’25 closing at $4.27¼/bu. The national cash corn gauge hovered near $3.88, while Brazil’s domestic tone stayed firm into early November. With the federal shutdown delaying weekly export-sales prints, attention shifted to next Friday’s Crop Production and WASDE updates. In Argentina, planting progress reached 36%, and early stands were rated 79% good to excellent, helping cap rallies despite U.S. river-level concerns.

Soybeans

Soybeans firmed to finish the session, with November ’25 up 10¢ at $11.01¾/bu. Product markets leaned supportive as soymeal bounced into the close and soyoil added 30–44 points. Deliveries continued to trickle, bringing the month-to-date total to 1,506. China reinstated eligibility for three U.S. soybean exporters, even as October Chinese imports slowed to 9.48 MMT from September’s pace, a seasonal step-down that still keeps year-to-date intake elevated.

Global drivers and key headlines

China reset the corn landscape by raising its 2025/26 production forecast to 300 MMT, the highest since records began in 1949. The increase reflected better yields despite northern weather hiccups and came alongside a slight trim to soy output to 20.9 MMT. Bigger Chinese corn supplies reinforce a well-stocked global balance sheet and dampen upside risk for international feed grains.

Biofuels policy turned heads after the U.S. EPA approved 14 small-refinery exemptions—two full and twelve partial—clearing most of the waiver backlog. The move drew pushback from biofuel groups worried about demand erosion, even as record U.S. ethanol production has recently provided a notable tailwind to corn. Markets will parse how exemptions intersect with blending compliance and rack pricing into late November.

Brazil’s soybean meal exports hit a record for Jan–Oct at 19.6 MMT, with notable gains to Spain, Denmark, and Bangladesh. October alone saw 2.17 MMT, up 5% m/m, while soyoil exports in October rose 42.5% m/m to 82.5k t. The product strength underscores Brazil’s widening footprint across non-traditional buyers and helps explain the resilient bid in the soy complex despite headline volatility.

Corn in Brazil stayed bid as sellers prioritized contracts and eyed higher prices, even while buyers claimed comfortable stocks. The ESALQ/B3 corn index gained 0.9% from Oct 30 to Nov 6 to BRL 66.85/60-kg, a nominal high since late June. October corn exports reached 6.5 MMT (−14% m/m, +1.5% y/y), for 29.82 MMT year-to-date, with early-November port quotes edging above October levels.

Vegetable oil markets digested a supply jolt as Malaysia’s palm oil output jumped 11% m/m to 2.04 MMT, swelling stockpiles to 2.464 MMT, the highest since April 2019. Exports also surprised to the upside at 1.69 MMT, tempering the inventory build. The data keep palm a crucial swing factor for soyoil pricing across Asia, with recent price dips having stimulated demand.

Weather remained a central thread. Central and northern Brazil stayed showery—good for soybean germination—while southern Brazil may trend drier after a very wet start. Argentina holds strong soil moisture, though a drier, warmer turn later in November could accelerate plantings and reduce wheat disease pressure. In the U.S., a warm rebound follows early-week cold, while the Mississippi River remains low, keeping barge drafts and basis risk in play.

Europe and the Black Sea presented a split picture. France continued making solid planting progress and maintained high crop-condition ratings, while the Black Sea east still faces moisture deficits and delayed dormancy that keep establishment risks elevated. A South Korean purchase of U.S. wheat added a fresh demand note just as winter wheat dryness lingers across parts of the U.S.

Development finance intersected with ag resilience as the Gates Foundation pledged $1.4 billion over four years to help farmers in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia adapt to extreme weather, backing tools like biofertilizers and soil-health mapping. While not immediately price-active, initiatives that improve yield stability and agronomic decision-making can influence long-run supply curves and import needs.