Global Market Overview and Key Policy Trends

The week opened with China raising its 2025/26 corn production forecast to an all-time high of 300 million tons, driven by improved yields despite weather interruptions earlier in the season. This strengthened expectations of decreasing Chinese import needs for corn while simultaneously reducing export prospects for competing suppliers. China’s soybean output was slightly trimmed due to weather-related disruptions, but overall yield performance in the northeast remained strong.

Mexico introduced one of the most dramatic policy interventions of the year, applying a 156% tariff on all sugar imports and a 210% tariff on refined liquid sugar. The decision was designed to protect domestic producers from low global prices and prevent oversupply during the 2025/26 sugar cycle. While not grain-related directly, the move contributed to broader discussions around agricultural protectionism in North America.

In Canada, agricultural diplomacy took center stage as the Canadian agriculture minister announced progress in thawing relations with China, particularly around the currently constrained canola trade. No concrete timeline was established, but the shift in tone influenced oilseed sector sentiment globally, particularly within rapeseed and canola import corridors linked to feed markets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency cleared 14 pending small refinery waivers for biofuel blending obligations. This decision generated strong pushback from the biofuel industry, raising concerns over reduced demand for ethanol and biofuel feedstocks, including corn and soybean oil, at a time when U.S. harvest volumes are exceptionally high. The Renewable Fuels Association warned that the exemptions inject uncertainty into markets already pressured by record U.S. output.

In Brazil, the week brought a new series of major announcements. COFCO, China’s state trading giant, signed nearly 20 million tons of Brazilian soybean, soy oil, palm oil and other agricultural contracts worth over $10 billion, underscoring China’s continuing prioritization of Brazil for its feedstock needs. In parallel, China’s soybean glut continued to capture attention; port stocks have surged to around 10 million tons, the highest on record, limiting appetite for new U.S. soybean purchases despite the ongoing trade thaw.

Brazil also reported new export authorizations to China for sorghum and distillers grains, marking another expansion of its footprint in China’s feed ingredient market. This is especially significant given China’s ongoing diversification away from U.S. suppliers for animal feed and its heavy reliance on sorghum imports, of which it consumes more than 80% of global traded volumes.

Finally, palm oil markets remained volatile and deeply influenced by policy. Indonesia and Malaysia, representing nearly 90% of global output, are confronting slower future production growth due to aging plantations, fertilizer cost inflation, and in Indonesia’s case, expansive government land seizures. Coupled with Indonesia’s planned B50 biodiesel rollout in H2 2026, global vegetable oil markets face increasingly tight supply expectations for 2026.

Weather Developments Shaping Global Grains

Weather remained a defining force across all major exporting regions. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center confirmed that La Niña remains in place and is expected to continue through winter before shifting toward ENSO-neutral conditions early next year. While weak, this La Niña pattern is shaping growing season expectations in South America, where conditions are already diverging starkly between Brazil and Argentina.

Northern Brazil continued to receive widespread rainfall, helping maintain soil moisture levels favorable for early soybean and corn development. Meanwhile, southern Brazil experienced intermittent dryness as a stalled front restricted rainfall, a notable shift after an extremely wet start to the season that previously delayed fieldwork and raised flooding concerns. Forecasts suggest a return to drier-than-normal conditions in southern Brazil, with central Brazil remaining consistently wet.

Argentina, in contrast, remained structurally well-supplied with soil moisture following abundant rainfall earlier in the season. A drying trend is now expected through late November and into December, which could mark a turning point in crop development. With models indicating fewer rainfall events and slightly higher temperatures ahead, Argentine conditions could shift from ideal to stress-building if precipitation remains limited. Still, the winter wheat crop continues to benefit from strong moisture reserves despite increasing disease pressure caused by prior rainfall surpluses.

Across the U.S., temperatures rebounded strongly after early cold snaps, supporting winter wheat establishment and minimizing crop stress. However, water levels along the Mississippi River remained critically low, restricting transportation and raising inland freight costs. This factor became increasingly relevant as export volumes rose into mid-November.

The European continent remained generally favorable for winter wheat establishment with scattered rainfall and moderating temperatures. Yet the Black Sea region continued to struggle with moisture shortages, especially in eastern areas of Russia, where winter wheat is emerging under drought stress. Soil moisture deficits and above-normal temperatures are delaying dormancy; ironically, earlier dormancy would help prevent additional stress given the current dryness.

Australia remained split between regions: while some eastern areas received showers that could slow wheat and canola harvest progress, most of the country remained too dry for those late-season rains to be beneficial. Harvest is well underway, and conditions are not expected to materially improve. Cotton and sorghum plantings, however, heavily depend on moisture improvements that remain uncertain.

Across Africa, South Africa faced flooding risks from heavy rainfall, posing potential challenges for early maize plantings. In Asia, both India and China enjoyed favorable planting windows for wheat, though China continues to contend with regional moisture imbalances affecting specialty crops.

Futures Market Dynamics and Weekly Pricing Trends

Chicago futures markets demonstrated a clear pattern of support across soybeans and corn, while wheat showed greater volatility. Soybeans climbed steadily throughout the week, supported by anticipation of a record U.S. crush and strong export flows from Brazil that set global benchmarks. Soymeal and soyoil diverged at times as product-specific trends, including fast-rising Brazilian meal exports, shaped product spreads.

Corn futures strengthened alongside soybeans, reflecting improved demand sentiment, firming export expectations and tightening global freight conditions. Heavy open interest gains in corn and soybean futures mid-week underscored the influx of managed money and hedge flows into the markets.

Wheat futures saw modest increases early in the week before softening mid-week as global supply forecasts—particularly from Argentina and Russia—continued to improve. Argentine wheat, in particular, became a key story. Both the Rosario and Buenos Aires grain exchanges raised their wheat production forecasts to record levels of 24–24.5 million tons, setting a new national record even above the 2021/22 “super-campaign.” This added new weight to global wheat supply projections entering the second half of the marketing year.

Soybean prices opened weaker early in the week before pushing higher, supported by strong demand for soybean meal and emerging concerns around product availability as global biodiesel policies evolve. Soyoil markets were strongly influenced by Indonesia’s biodiesel progress, expectations for increased biofuel obligations, and tightening global vegetable oil supply projections.

Palm oil futures in Malaysia traded largely sideways around 4,125 ringgit but were caught between opposing pressures: on one hand, expectations of weaker future output due to La Niña, aging trees and Indonesian land seizures; on the other hand, slowing buying interest from India due to price premiums that favored soyoil imports.

China’s domestic futures saw increases in soybeans, soymeal and soyoil throughout the week, reflecting underlying domestic tightness in product markets despite the high level of imported soybean stocks.

Crop-by-Crop Outlook

Wheat

Wheat markets were overshadowed by massive Argentine upward revisions. With yields exceeding expectations across major growing regions, global wheat availability looks increasingly comfortable. However, the Black Sea drought remains a counterweight, as Russian winter wheat faces ongoing establishment challenges. Europe remains well-positioned heading into dormancy, and U.S. winter wheat benefited from moderate temperatures and improving soil conditions.

Corn

Corn was supported by strong U.S. export inspection data early in the week and firm planting progress in Brazil, where planting of the first corn crop reached nearly 48% nationwide. Brazil’s total 2025/26 corn output is now estimated between 138.8–143.6 million tons depending on the source, with very strong second-crop production expected. China’s record 300 million-ton corn estimate added a bearish backdrop but did not materially suppress U.S. or Brazilian price sentiment.

Soybeans

Soybeans ended the week strongly, supported by expectations of a record NOPA crush at more than 209 million bushels for October. Brazil’s soybean outlook also remained at record levels—177.6 million tons—but demand for Brazilian product has been equally robust, with exports in November expected to reach 4.26 million tons. China continued to dominate Brazil’s export flows despite its record domestic stock build. Soymeal exports from Brazil remain at historic highs, surpassing 19.6 million tons in the year to date.

Global Trade Flows and Export Trends

The global flow of grain and oilseed products continued to shift decisively toward Brazil throughout the week. Strong competitiveness, favorable freight terms, and deep Chinese purchasing programs cemented Brazil’s position as the dominant origin across soy products, meal, corn and now sorghum and distillers grains.

U.S. grain inspections reflected steady corn and soybean demand, with soybeans particularly supported by record crush expectations and competitive pricing relative to Brazil for some origins. Wheat inspections, however, remained soft compared with previous years.

The EU continued to experience softer wheat export volumes, down 4% year-on-year, while barley exports rose significantly due to shifts in livestock feed demand. Corn imports into the EU remained down 25% year-on-year, reflecting improved local availability and reduced reliance on Ukrainian and South American supply.

Russia announced it had harvested more than 140 million tons of grain in bunker weight, reinforcing expectations of strong export potential even as some regions continue to struggle with dry weather affecting winter wheat establishment.

India’s dramatic shift in vegetable oil imports also emerged this week. Palm oil imports fell by almost 16%, their lowest level in five years, while soyoil imports surged by nearly 60% to a record high. This shift reflects the widening price premium of palm oil relative to soybean oil, heavily influencing global vegetable oil balances.