Wheat

Chicago wheat finished mixed-to-firmer overall as spring led and winter contracts lagged. December ’25 CBOT closed at $5.36/bu, unchanged on the day, with KC HRW up 1–2½¢ and Minneapolis fractionally higher. Traders balanced steady tender interest—Algeria and South Korea booked cargoes—against a firmer Black Sea FOB backdrop and pre-WASDE positioning into Friday.

Corn

Corn firmed into the bell as export flow held up and positioning stayed defensive ahead of Friday’s Crop Production/WASDE. December ’25 settled at $4.35¼/bu, up 3¼¢, while the U.S. national cash gauge ticked to ~$3.97. Surveys pointed to a leaner U.S. yield and output versus September, with weekly EIA data delayed by the federal holiday.

Soybeans

Soybeans shook off early weakness to finish higher, with November ’25 at $11.20½/bu, up 7¼¢. Meal gained $5.10–$5.30 while soyoil slipped 51–53 points. Deliveries rose to 1,736 for the month. The market continues to watch export signals as China has yet to confirm large U.S. purchases touted by Washington.

COFCO’s Brazil spree and China’s soy overhang

China’s state trader COFCO signed deals worth over $10B for nearly 20 MMT of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other ag products at the Shanghai import expo—without mentioning U.S. supplies. At the same time, record LatAm arrivals have China’s port stocks near 10 MMT and crush margins weak, muting appetite for sizable new U.S. bean buys despite tariff-relief headlines.

EU trade pulse and France’s crop tweaks

EU soft-wheat exports since July 1 reached ~8.4 MMT, ~4% under last year, while corn imports fell 25% y/y to 5.6 MMT. France nudged soft-wheat output to 33.3 MMT, trimmed corn to 13.2 MMT (−9.7% y/y), and held rapeseed steady—signals that keep EU price risk contained near-term.

Black Sea supply and Russian FOBs

Russia has harvested over 140 MMT of grain (bunker weight), and mid-December 12.5% FOB offers edged to ~$232–233/t as seasonal storage and carry costs firm the floor. Early 2026 crop ideas trend lower on reduced plantings, but current differentials remain pivotal into winter flows.

Thailand’s zero-tariff corn window

Bangkok will lift its feed-corn import quota to 1 MMT at a 0% tariff for 2026 (Feb 1–Jun 30) and link entries to domestic purchase obligations. The shift favors optional-origin (including U.S.) corn into Southeast Asia during that window and could reshape regional spreads.

Policy cross-currents: EU deforestation law and Mexico sugar

EU members are pushing a one-year delay to the deforestation regulation on soy, coffee, cocoa, and palm—potentially easing near-term compliance pressure and precautionary buying. Separately, Mexico imposed a 156% ad-valorem tariff on sugar (and 210.44% on refined liquid sugar), a move with indirect read-throughs to biofuels and edible-oil demand narratives.

Brazil export cadence and Argentina’s biofuels prices

ANEC lifted November projections to 4.26 MMT soybeans, 2.47 MMT soymeal, and 6.04 MMT corn—each above last week—reinforcing Brazil’s role as year-end supply workhorse. Argentina raised regulated prices for bioethanol (corn/sugarcane) and biodiesel blends effective Nov 10, a tweak that can ripple through crush and export economics.

Palm oil and cross-market signals

Malaysian palm oil slipped modestly even as inventories climbed; stronger-than-expected exports tempered the build. Palm’s relative value continues to steer soyoil spreads across Asia and feed back into soy crush margins and board tone.

Weather map into late November

The U.S. turns much warmer with limited moisture—supportive for finishing fieldwork and winter-wheat seeding—while the Mississippi remains low. Central/northern Brazil stays showery and cooler under successive fronts; Argentina trends drier near-term before late-month rains. Europe is mild to wetter; the eastern Black Sea stays moisture-short with delayed dormancy, keeping establishment risks elevated.