Wheat

Chicago wheat ended Thursday on a softer note after intraday strength faded, with the complex mixed by class. December ’25 CBOT wheat closed at $5.35¾/bu, down ¼ cent on the day, while KC HRW contracts finished 1–2 cents higher and Minneapolis spring wheat was steady to 2 cents lower. The pullback came as traders digested delayed U.S. export sales data showing 315,875 t of weekly wheat bookings—a three-week low at the time—against a backdrop of improving global crop prospects and a more active weather pattern forecast for the U.S. Southern Plains and SRW belt next week.

Corn

Corn futures pushed higher into the close, extending the week’s recovery. December ’25 corn settled at $4.41½/bu, up 6¼ cents, while the U.S. cmdtyView national average cash corn price climbed another 6½ cents to $4.02½. Fresh EIA data showed U.S. ethanol production easing from last week’s record to 1.075 million barrels per day, with stocks drawing to 22.219 million barrels—a combination that still signals solid biofuel demand. Weekly export sales came in at 1.394 MMT, reinforcing a constructive demand tone alongside Brazil’s slightly larger corn crop estimate from CONAB.

Soybeans

Soybeans led the grain gains on Thursday, posting double-digit advances in nearby contracts. November ’25 soybeans closed at $11.32/bu, up 11½ cents, with the national average cash bean price up 12¾ cents to $10.73. Soymeal futures rose $2.50 to $7.40 higher in the nearby months, while soyoil futures slipped 30–37 points, reflecting a modest correction after recent strength. Weekly U.S. export sales showed 870,533 t of soybeans sold, 623,515 t of soymeal for 2025/26 (offset by 216,215 t in old-crop cancellations), and 13,598 t of soyoil—numbers that kept the soy complex underpinned as the market awaits USDA’s release of the backlog of large daily sales and the November WASDE.

Global drivers and key headlines

The immediate macro focus remains firmly on Friday’s delayed USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. After September’s grain-stocks revisions, traders are broadly positioned for slightly higher U.S. wheat and corn ending stocks and soybean carryout near prior expectations, with strong cash indications and healthy export sales helping to cushion any modestly bearish adjustments. The expectation that USDA will also begin publishing the backlog of large daily export sales, with weekly reports temporarily accelerated, adds another layer of event risk for corn, soybeans and wheat into year-end.

Argentina again took center stage on the supply side, with the Rosario Grain Exchange boosting its 2025/26 wheat forecast to a record 24.5 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from last month and above the previous 23 MMT high. About 15% of area has been harvested, and record yields are being reported in the country’s three key producing provinces. Above-average rainfall during critical development stages, combined with heavy investment in improved seeds and disease control, has underpinned this “mega-campaign.” At the same time, the exchange held its corn and soybean estimates at 61 MMT and 47 MMT respectively, with roughly 40% of corn and 10% of soybeans planted so far, supported by still-favorable soil moisture.

Brazil’s crop story also tilted bearish for prices. CONAB nudged its 2025/26 total corn estimate up to 138.84 MMT, about 0.56 MMT above October, driven by a slightly larger first-crop area and generally good soil moisture. As of 8 November, 47.7% of first-crop corn was planted nationwide—near last year’s pace—with planting nearly complete in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná, but slower in Southeast states like Minas Gerais and São Paulo after heavy rains. Forecasts point to average rainfall for much of the South and a brief drier window in the Southeast that should accelerate planting, although a weak La Niña into December–February could bring drier-than-normal conditions later to Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, warranting close yield monitoring.

Weather remained a central driver across both hemispheres. In North America, a much warmer pattern with limited precipitation stretches across the Midwest and Plains, supporting final fieldwork and winter wheat seeding but leaving the Mississippi River at persistently low levels, prolonging barge-draft and freight constraints. Model guidance suggests storm frequency could pick up next week, though it may not be enough to materially lift river levels in November. In South America, Argentina is expected to trend drier through the second half of the month, a shift that supports corn and soybean planting after a wet start while also easing wheat disease pressure. Brazil faces a split pattern: fronts bring significant rains to southern and central areas this week before stalling north, potentially marking the beginning of a drier-than-normal stretch for parts of Southern Brazil after an overly wet early season.

Global vegetable oil markets added another layer of cross-asset influence. The Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC) projected flat palm oil production growth in 2026 at around 82 MMT, citing La Niña risk, aging trees, high fertilizer costs and land-tenure issues in Indonesia and Malaysia. While Indonesia’s output is seen near 50 MMT and Malaysia’s around 20 MMT next year, under-application of fertilizer and slow replanting could cap longer-term yield growth. At the same time, Malaysia’s crude palm oil production is expected to surpass 20 MMT in 2025 for the first time, supported by better labor availability and high-yielding new plantations—implying a near-term stock build that may weigh on benchmark futures despite medium-term supply concerns.

India’s shifting vegetable-oil import mix continued to reshape demand for palm and soyoil. In the 2024/25 marketing year, India’s palm oil imports fell 15.9% to 7.58 MMT, the lowest level in five years, while soyoil imports jumped 59% to a record 5.47 MMT. Sunflower oil purchases slipped to 2.9 MMT, and palm’s share of India’s total vegoil imports dropped to a record 47% from 56%, while soyoil and sunflower oil gained to a combined 53% from 44%. The switch reflects a period when palm traded at a premium to soyoil, encouraging refiners to substitute toward soft oils. India’s total vegoil imports still edged higher to 16.36 MMT, with spending on imports reaching a record 1.61 trillion rupees, underscoring the scale of its influence on global trade flows.

Indonesia remained a key swing factor for palm and biofuel dynamics. Officials flagged that smallholder replanting is far short of targets, with only about 23,000 ha replanted by end-October versus a 120,000 ha goal, raising concerns about future yield potential on aging estates. At the same time, the government is pushing ahead with road tests for a B50 biodiesel blend starting in December, with a possible phased rollout initially focused on the public sector. Industry estimates suggest that full B50 implementation in 2026 could cut Indonesia’s palm oil exports by 11–12%, tightening seaborne supply even as domestic consumption rises, prompting calls to diversify biodiesel feedstocks to used cooking oil and other waste-based oils.

Across Europe, fundamentals were mixed but broadly supportive for winter crops. Scattered showers and cooler conditions are forecast to expand next week, with overall weather still considered favorable for winter wheat establishment in most of the continent as dormancy begins in the north. In contrast, eastern Black Sea regions continue to struggle with soil-moisture deficits and drought during winter wheat establishment. Limited showers and above-normal temperatures are delaying dormancy, forcing crops to grow in poor moisture conditions—ironically making an earlier onset of dormancy more desirable to protect yield potential until an “active” winter can hopefully recharge soils.

An important livestock-sector side note came from Germany, where bird-flu outbreaks have surged to their highest level in three years, triggering the culling of more than 1 million birds and localized restrictions. While analysts report little immediate impact on egg or poultry-meat prices given Germany’s roughly 200 million-bird flock, a prolonged wave of avian influenza across Europe could create regional trade friction and modestly alter feed-grain demand at the margin, especially in the poultry sector.