Wheat

At the start of Wednesday’s Chicago session, December ’25 CBOT wheat traded near $5.28/bu—about 8¢ under Tuesday’s $5.36 close—as recent spring-led strength met renewed selling across the winter contracts. Tender interest stayed present after Algeria and South Korea booked cargoes, while the market eyed Friday’s WASDE for U.S. balance-sheet signals and EU export pace updates.

Corn

December ’25 corn opened essentially flat to fractionally softer around $4.32/bu (about ¼¢ under Tuesday’s settle), with the Goldman roll continuing to shift open interest into March. Weekly inspections have remained constructive, and pre-report surveys point to a modest trim to U.S. yield versus September, keeping positioning two-sided into Friday.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans started the day firmer near $11.20½/bu—about 7½¢ above Tuesday’s $11.13¼ close—as ongoing Brazilian planting momentum and stronger product tone in vegoils balanced caution around China’s heavy port stocks. Deliveries have continued to trickle, while U.S. FOBs still carry a premium to Brazil that tempers discretionary Chinese demand.

COFCO’s big Brazil buy—trade optimism with caveats

China’s state trader COFCO signed agreements to purchase nearly 20 MMT of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil and other ag products worth over $10B at the Shanghai import expo. The statement did not mention U.S. supplies; traders are watching for any large state-firm flashes after Washington touted potential year-end soybean purchases.

China’s soybean glut blunts U.S. upside

Record Latin American arrivals left China with soy stocks near 10 MMT at ports and weak crush margins, limiting appetite for sizable new U.S. purchases even after tariff relief headlines. Private chatter suggests state firms may wait for better margins; Brazilian beans remain price-advantaged.

Brazil accelerates export programs across the complex

ANEC lifted November projections to 4.26 MMT for soybeans, 2.47 MMT for soymeal, and 6.04 MMT for corn—each above last week’s outlook—reinforcing Brazil’s role as the near-term supply workhorse into year-end as field weather stays notably wet in the Center-North.

EU trade pulse: wheat slower, corn imports lighter

EU soft-wheat exports since July 1 reached 8.4 MMT to November 9, about 4% below last year, with Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria leading. Corn imports fell 25% y/y to 5.6 MMT as domestic availability and softer feed demand curbed pull. Data gaps remain for some members, but the direction keeps a lid on EU price risk for now.

Black Sea supply lens: big Russian crop, firm FOBs

Russia has harvested over 140 MMT of grain in bunker weight, while mid-December Russian 12.5% FOB wheat edged up to ~$232–233/t amid seasonal storage costs. The combination signals ample supply but also a floor from logistics and carry, keeping Black Sea differentials pivotal into winter.

Thailand opens a bigger door for U.S. feed corn

Bangkok will expand its feed-corn import quota to 1 MMT at a 0% tariff for 2026 (Feb 1–Jun 30), tied to domestic purchase obligations. The shift should pull additional U.S. (and optional-origin) corn into Southeast Asia during the window, nudging regional spreads and U.S. Gulf competitiveness.

EU deforestation law: push to delay implementation

EU members are backing a one-year delay to the deforestation regulation covering imports such as soy, coffee, cocoa, and palm. A later start—if agreed—would ease compliance pressure on supply chains in 2026 and may reduce near-term precautionary buying in oilseeds and vegoils.

Weather map: U.S. warms, Brazil stays wet north, Argentina drier near-term

U.S. crop areas turn much warmer with limited moisture into late November—supportive for finishing fieldwork and winter-wheat seeding. Central/northern Brazil remains showery and cooler under successive fronts, while Argentina trends drier short-term before late-month rains, a mix that’s broadly constructive for South American planting cadence.

Palm oil tone and cross-market cues

Malaysian palm oil slipped modestly overnight even as inventories climbed; stronger-than-expected exports tempered the build. The palm backdrop continues to steer soyoil relative value across Asia, feeding back into the soy complex and crush margins.

Sugar side-note: Mexico’s tariff spike and biofuel context
Mexico imposed a steep 156% ad-valorem tariff on sugar imports (and 210.44% on refined liquid sugar), effectively closing the import door to protect domestic prices. While not a direct grain lever, sweetener policy shifts often intersect with ethanol and edible-oil demand signals at the margin.