Chicago wheat futures ended Tuesday mixed but generally steady to higher, consolidating Monday’s strong gains. December 2025 CBOT SRW closed at $5.46 1/2 per bushel, up 2 1/4 cents on the day, while KC HRW slipped 1–3 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat firmed 6–9 cents in the nearby contracts. The wheat market traded against a backdrop of solid EU exports, now at 9.05 million tons since July and almost in line with last year, and fresh US crop progress data showing winter wheat 92% planted and 79% emerged, but with good/excellent ratings at just 45%, below last year and lower on the Brugler500 index, signalling some underlying condition concerns despite ample global supply prospects.

Corn futures posted modest gains across most contracts on Tuesday. December 2025 corn closed at $4.36 3/4 per bushel, up 2 cents, with the US cmdtyView national average cash corn price 2 cents higher at $3.98 1/4. USDA’s long-delayed Crop Progress update showed 91% of the US corn crop harvested as of 16 November, slightly behind the 94% five-year average, suggesting harvest is largely complete but still dragging in a few regions. Demand signals remained supportive, with a South Korean buyer booking 65,000 tons of corn—likely US origin—and traders watching upcoming EIA ethanol data and the delayed CFTC Commitment of Traders reports for confirmation of fund positioning and biofuel-driven demand strength.

Soybean futures gave back a fraction of Monday’s surge as the market “sold the fact” of the Chinese buying. January 2026 soybeans closed at $11.53 1/2 per bushel, down 3 3/4 cents, while the US national average cash soybean price eased 4 cents to $10.80 3/4. Soymeal futures fell $3.30 to $5.00, even as soyoil futures climbed a further 93–103 points, extending the recent outperformance of oil relative to meal. USDA’s Crop Progress report showed 95% of the US soybean crop harvested, only slightly behind the 96% average pace, while Brazil’s soybean crop estimate was trimmed by Abiove to 177.7 million tons, still effectively at record territory and keeping South American supply expectations high despite emerging weather risks.

China’s return as a major buyer of US soybeans remains one of the central stories shaping sentiment. USDA reported 792,000 tons of soybeans sold to China in its daily reporting system on Tuesday, in line with trade talk that COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes—around 840,000 tons—and possibly closer to 20 cargoes or 1.2 million tons on Monday. The purchases are less about price competitiveness, as US beans remain more expensive than Brazilian alternatives, and more about Beijing’s political commitment to honour trade pledges made with Washington. After a year of sluggish US sales to China compared with last year’s 27 million tons, this wave of buying marks a turning point for the soy complex and helps anchor futures despite heavy global supplies.

Underlying demand for soy processing is equally impressive. NOPA members crushed a record 227.647 million bushels of soybeans in October, up 15.1% from September and 13.9% from a year earlier, blowing past trade expectations and setting a new all-time monthly high. Soyoil stocks climbed to 1.305 billion pounds, 21.5% above year-ago levels and above analyst estimates, reflecting strong output into a global vegetable oil market that is already tight. Malaysian palm oil futures rose 59 ringgit overnight to 4,210 ringgit, and Chinese January contracts for soymeal, soyoil and palm oil all ended higher, highlighting robust end-product demand even as China faces softer raw bean prices. Malaysia, meanwhile, signalled it will not aggressively expand palm-based biofuel usage for now, unlike Indonesia’s B50 mandate, preferring a focus on yield gains and positioning palm as a model of low-carbon, inclusive growth aligned with its 2050 net-zero ambitions.

Weather and crop conditions across key producing regions are increasingly in focus as early drought signals appear in South America. Forecasts for the next 10–15 days point to warm conditions in the US with moderate to heavy rainfall improving soil moisture for winter wheat in the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains, though low Mississippi River levels continue to constrain barge logistics. In South America, Argentina’s Pampas is expected to stay warm with below-normal rainfall, with only scattered showers late in the week across Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa and Southern Buenos Aires, raising concern that persistent dryness could begin to stress corn and soybean crops into December. Central Brazil, including Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Goias, remains wetter and cooler with repeated showers, but Rio Grande do Sul, Parana and neighbouring Paraguay are forecast to turn drier, and analysts warn that these patterns could build significant downside risk for South American corn and soybean yields if they persist.

On the global wheat balance sheet, fresh projections reinforce the narrative of ample supply. CEPEA, citing USDA’s latest outlook, notes that world wheat production in 2025/26 is expected to rise 3.5% to a record 828.89 million tons, with output increasing in eight of the sixteen main producing countries, remaining stable in six and declining in only two. Argentina’s wheat crop alone is projected to reach a record 24 million tons, creating scope for larger Brazilian imports from its southern neighbour and adding further weight to global export competition. With expected 2025/26 wheat consumption at 818.9 million tons—slightly below supply—global stocks are likely to build, a combination that could pressure international and Brazilian prices even as pockets of regional weather stress, such as in Russia’s southwestern winter wheat belt, remain a watchpoint.

Russia continues to consolidate its position as a cornerstone supplier in the global grain and oilseed complex. Rosstat data show Russian agricultural organizations holding 40.8 million tons of grain and legumes at the end of October, up 14.4% year-on-year, with wheat stocks up 21.4% to 26.5 million tons even as corn reserves dropped by 30.1% to 2.99 million tons. Grain exports via Baltic Sea ports have risen 30% this year to 1.3 million tons by 12 November, 42% of which went to African countries and 93% of which was wheat, as Russia ramps up shipments from new terminals like Vysotsky and Lugaport to reduce dependence on Black Sea routes. At the same time, Russia sold 9.3 million tons of grain in October alone and aims to export 50 million tons of grain in 2024/25, even though total shipments since July have been relatively slow given abundant global supply and low prices. Parallel diplomatic signals from Beijing, where Premier Li Qiang voiced interest in importing more Russian agricultural and food products and deepening energy cooperation, point to a deepening Russia–China axis in grain, oilseed and energy trade.

Structural and environmental factors are also reshaping long-term soybean supply potential. A new study on Brazil’s Cerrado savanna, shared by Zero Carbon Analytics, finds that deforestation for soy cultivation has created drier local climates that have reduced yields relative to what could have been achieved using the same technological improvements without land clearing. The analysis suggests the Cerrado could have produced an additional 34 million tons of soy—worth about $9.4 billion—over the last decade if native vegetation had not been cleared since 2008, even though national average yields still rose 38% to 3.62 tons per hectare by 2024/25 thanks to GMO seeds and better inputs. The gap between realised and potential output underscores that climate-related yield drag is already a material factor, even in a country that remains the world’s largest soy producer and a key supplier to China.

Demand for protein meals and cereals from importing regions adds further complexity to the global picture. India’s oilmeal exports climbed to 371,235 tons in October from 299,252 tons in September, with soymeal shipments more than doubling to 180,172 tons, signalling strong regional demand for protein feed that is closely tied to global soy crush economics. In North Africa, Morocco plans to increase its cereal planting area to 4.4 million hectares this season from 2.6 million previously, supported by subsidies for 120,000 tons of seed and 650,000 tons of phosphate-based fertilizer. Yet farming is constrained by strict irrigation quotas and dam reserves for agriculture of just 28% capacity, meaning the country is likely to remain a significant and sometimes volatile buyer of imported wheat and feed grains, particularly from the Black Sea and EU, with implications for trade flows into Morocco, Nigeria, Egypt and the wider region.

Policy support and regulatory shifts round out the backdrop for farmers and exporters. USDA will open the second phase of its Supplemental Disaster Relief Program on 24 November, supplying part of the $16 billion in Congressionally approved aid for producers who suffered crop, tree, bush and vine losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024, especially those without insurance or prior indemnities; applications for both phases will remain open until April 30, 2026, helping underpin US production capacity in weather-hit regions. At the same time, the European Union has officially confirmed the return of the “pre-listing” system for Brazilian poultry and egg plants, allowing facilities approved by Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry to export to the EU without additional EU inspection missions. This decision is set to streamline and expand Brazil’s access to a lucrative market for animal protein, with knock-on effects on feed demand for corn and soymeal as global grain and oilseed trade continues to evolve under the combined influence of weather, policy and shifting trade alliances.