Chicago wheat futures start Tuesday firmer after Monday’s rally. December 2025 CBOT SRW is implied higher, combining yesterday’s close at $5.44 1/4 per bushel with overnight gains of about 4 1/2 cents, while KC HRW and Minneapolis spring wheat are also trading a few cents up. The complex is building on Monday’s 17-cent surge in Chicago, 13–14-cent gains in HRW and 5–9-cent strength in HRS, even as open interest fell sharply in both winter wheat markets as traders rolled or exited December positions. Support continues to come from a wheat export program that remains 19% ahead of last year, despite last week’s shipments dipping slightly week-on-week.

Corn opens Tuesday with a constructive tone as well. December 2025 corn is implied roughly 3 3/4 cents higher on the day, after closing Monday at $4.34 3/4 per bushel with a 4 1/2-cent gain and briefly testing levels above $4.50 in the March contract. The national average US cash corn price also firmed, and while preliminary open interest dropped by over 11,000 contracts—driven by a heavy exodus from the December month—the underlying export story remains strongly supportive and continues to offset the weight of large US supplies.

Soybeans are extending their rally into Tuesday’s session. January 2026 futures are implied nearly 9 cents higher after Monday’s strong close at $11.57 1/4 per bushel, up 32 3/4 cents on the day, with the national average US cash soybean price jumping 33 1/2 cents to about $10.84 1/2. Soymeal futures added $2.20 to $6.40 on Monday and soyoil gained 60–99 points, as speculative and commercial interest increased; open interest in soybeans rose by 9,524 contracts, underlining fresh buying interest following record US crush data and high-profile Chinese purchases.

Today’s global sentiment is dominated by China’s sudden return as a large US soybean buyer. Traders report that COFCO purchased at least 14 cargoes—and possibly closer to 20—equivalent to roughly 840,000 to 1.2 million tonnes of US soybeans on Monday, mainly for December–January shipment from Gulf and Pacific Northwest terminals. These deals are being driven less by price competitiveness—US beans remain more expensive than Brazilian cargoes—and more by Beijing’s political commitment to the Busan trade pledges with Washington. The surge in buying is also notable given that China had previously imported only small volumes of US soybeans this year relative to the 12-million-tonne target, and far below last year’s nearly 27-million-tonne intake, making Monday’s wave a key psychological and fundamental turning point for the soy complex.

Alongside Chinese buying, US export and processing data provide powerful confirmation of robust demand. Weekly inspections showed 2.054 million tonnes of corn shipped, the largest weekly volume since April 2021 and more than double last year’s level for the same week, pushing 2025/26 corn shipments to 15.84 million tonnes, up 73% year-on-year. Soybean inspections reached 1.176 million tonnes, slightly above the previous week, with Italy, Mexico and Egypt leading, even as China remained absent from the shipment list. On the processing side, NOPA members crushed a record 227.647 million bushels of soybeans in October, 15% above September and nearly 14% above last year, setting an all-time monthly high and lifting soyoil stocks to 1.305 billion pounds, more than 21% above a year earlier. Together, these flows underscore that both export and domestic crush chains are absorbing large volumes despite heavy US and global supplies.

Weather and crop conditions across the main producing regions are increasingly critical for forward pricing. Forecasts call for persistently warm conditions across the US over the next 10 days, with moderate to heavy wet spells improving soil moisture for winter wheat in the Midwest and Central and Southern Plains, even as low Mississippi River levels continue to constrain inland logistics. In South America, early drought risks are emerging: Argentina’s Pampas is expected to remain warm with below-normal rainfall, with only scattered showers later in the week for Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa and Southern Buenos Aires. Central Brazil, including Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Goias, is seeing repeated showers and cooler temperatures, but the far south—Rio Grande do Sul and Parana—faces a pattern of mostly dry conditions after limited showers, raising concern that corn and soybean crops in southern Brazil, Paraguay and northern Argentina may move into a more stress-prone regime as December approaches.

Longer-term supply narratives are being reshaped by both expansion and environmental constraints. CEPEA notes USDA projections that global wheat production in 2025/26 could reach a record 828.89 million tonnes, up 3.5%, with production rising in half of the 16 major producing countries and falling in only two. Argentina’s wheat crop alone is expected to hit a record 24 million tonnes, reinforcing a scenario of ample world wheat availability and potential for increased Brazilian imports from its southern neighbor, which may exert downward pressure on global and domestic wheat prices. At the same time, a new study on Brazil’s Cerrado shows that deforestation for soy cultivation has created drier local climates that have reduced yields relative to what could have been achieved using the same technological gains without land clearing, implying that the region could have produced an additional 34 million tonnes of soy—and roughly $9.4 billion in value—over the past decade, highlighting a hidden cost to climate-related yield drag even as national averages continue to rise.

Russia remains a central player in global grain balances and trade routes. Rosstat data show Russian agricultural organizations holding 40.8 million tonnes of grain and legumes at the end of October, up 14.4% year-on-year, with wheat stocks up 21.4% to 26.5 million tonnes despite weaker corn reserves. Russian grain exports via Baltic Sea ports have risen 30% this year to 1.3 million tonnes by November 12, with 42% shipped to African countries and wheat accounting for 93% of volumes, as Moscow expands capacity at new terminals such as Vysotsky and Lugaport to reduce dependence on vulnerable Black Sea routes. At the same time, Russia has sold 9.3 million tonnes of grain in October alone, and plans to export 50 million tonnes of grain in 2024/25, though total shipments since July remain relatively slow due to abundant global crops and low prices. Parallel diplomatic signals from Beijing, where Premier Li Qiang expressed interest in importing more Russian agricultural products and deepening energy cooperation, reinforce the likelihood of sustained Russian presence in Asian grain and oilseed markets.

Vegetable oil, biofuel policies and animal protein flows continue to feed back into grain and oilseed demand. Malaysian palm oil futures rose 59 ringgit overnight to 4,210 ringgit, while Chinese January futures showed soymeal, soyoil and palm oil all trading higher, reflecting resilient product demand despite softer raw bean prices in China. Malaysia has signalled that it is not aggressively expanding palm-based biofuel usage, given ample fossil fuel supply, in contrast to Indonesia’s B50 mandate which is set to absorb more palm oil and tighten regional vegetable oil balances. Malaysian officials emphasize yield improvements rather than land expansion and maintain that nearly 80% of industry players are ready to comply with the EU’s deforestation rules, while also positioning palm oil as a model for low-carbon, inclusive growth central to the country’s net-zero ambitions. In India, October oilmeal exports rose to 371,235 tonnes from 299,252 tonnes in September, driven mainly by a surge in soymeal shipments, underlining strong regional protein meal demand that is closely tied to global soy crush economics.

North African and Mediterranean dynamics contribute additional layers to grain demand and trade flows. Morocco aims to increase its cereal planting area to 4.4 million hectares this season, up from 2.6 million hectares previously, even as the sector faces acute water shortages. The government plans subsidies for seed and phosphate-based fertilizer, but dam reserves dedicated to farming stand at only 28% capacity, and strict irrigation quotas are in force across key regions such as Gharb, Tadla, Melouya, Tafilalet and Ouarzazate. This combination of ambition and structural water scarcity suggests that Morocco will remain an important and sometimes volatile buyer of imported wheat and feed grains, particularly from the Black Sea and EU, reinforcing the importance of Russian, European and potentially Argentine exports to North African food security.

Finally, policy and support measures round out today’s fundamental backdrop. The USDA will open the second phase of its Supplemental Disaster Relief Program on November 24, providing part of the $16 billion in Congressional aid for producers facing crop, tree, bush and vine losses from natural disasters in 2023 and 2024, particularly those without insurance or indemnified losses. This support, available through April 2026, could help stabilize US farm finances in regions hit by weather extremes and thereby sustain future production capacity. Combined with the strong export inspections, record soybean crush, mounting but still early drought risks in South America and shifting trade relationships—from China’s US soybean purchases to Russia’s Baltic export pivot and the EU’s re-opening to more Brazilian poultry and egg plants—today’s market enters the session with a complex mix of ample near-term supply, vibrant demand and emerging weather and policy risks that will continue to shape price discovery across wheat, corn and soybeans in the weeks ahead.