Key Global Trade and Policy Developments

US–China agricultural trade played a central role in market sentiment throughout the week, following the leaders’ summit in Busan and a political commitment by Beijing to purchase at least 12 million tons of US soybeans this year. China booked at least 14 cargoes early in the week — its largest purchase since January — totaling roughly 840,000 to 1 million tons from US Gulf and Pacific Northwest ports. These deals reflect an effort to honor commitments despite US cargoes being noticeably more expensive than Brazilian alternatives. Traders noted that these are driven heavily by state-owned COFCO rather than private commercial demand, reinforcing the political nature of the purchases.

Another major policy shift came from Washington, where President Trump signed an executive order removing the 40% tariffs imposed in July on a broad list of Brazilian food imports, including beef, coffee, cocoa and fruit. This reversal improves Brazilian competitiveness in the US market, may trigger refunds of already-paid duties and is expected to release thousands of bags of coffee held in bonded warehouses awaiting tariff clarity. The policy shift is widely interpreted as an attempt to ease domestic food inflation pressures and adds a bearish undertone to soft commodities and competing protein markets.

Elsewhere, regulatory developments in the European Union carried important implications for global agriculture. EU member states pushed for a one-year delay to the bloc’s deforestation regulation covering soybeans, coffee, cocoa and palm oil, along with simplifications and extended grace periods for smaller operators. The announcement sparked an immediate decline in New York cocoa futures and temporarily eased logistics concerns for traders navigating stricter traceability rules.

In Russia, the floating wheat export duty was raised by 14.6% to 232.3 rubles per ton, following higher indicative export prices, though levies on corn and barley remained at zero. Conversely, Malaysian authorities signaled no aggressive expansion of palm-based biofuels due to ample fossil fuel supplies, placing the country at odds with Indonesia’s more ambitious B50 mandate — a dynamic that will continue shaping global vegetable oil flows in the coming months.

Global Supply, Production and Harvest Developments

Across the major exporting regions, supply-side data continued to skew toward abundance. Russia’s SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat harvest estimate to 88.6 million tons as Siberia delivered record yields, reinforcing Russia’s undisputed status as the world’s largest wheat exporter. Western Australia projected its largest wheat crop in three years at 13.05 million tons, with total grain production — including canola and barley — approaching a record 26.62 million tons. India contributed to the heavy supply narrative with a record 2024/25 foodgrain output of 357.73 million tons, spanning rice, maize, pulses and oilseeds, and is preparing to resume exports of wheat products after more than three years of restrictions.

The Black Sea region continued its strong performance. Ukraine reported harvesting 50.9 million tons of grain by late November and remains on track for a total crop near 56 million tons, while Russian grain reserves increased 14.4% year-over-year to exceed 40.8 million tons — including a 21.4% jump in wheat stocks — suggesting ample supply even outside newly integrated regions.

South America provided a more mixed picture for the week, with Brazil’s soybean sector projecting remarkable strength while Argentina struggled under severe flooding. Brazil’s Abiove raised its 2026 soybean production estimate to a record 177.7 million tons and expected exports to hit 111 million tons, underpinned by strong Chinese demand and rising crush volumes. Soymeal and soyoil output are also set to rise, supporting Brazil’s global leadership in the soy complex. Further, Brazilian soymeal exports for November are projected to reach a new record near 2.68 million tons as crushers capitalize on strong export parity and temporary US crushing downtime

Argentina, meanwhile, faces significant challenges. Flooding in central Buenos Aires province has left 1.5 million hectares at very high risk of becoming unproductive and delayed planting of both soybeans and corn. Farmers are unable to access fields, with major roads submerged and concerns mounting that affected land may remain idle for the entire season. Despite strong rainfall earlier in the season keeping soil moisture high, upcoming systems are forecast to bring only patchy showers, increasing the risk of yield losses if drying trends persist into December.

Weekly Futures Performance Across Wheat, Corn and Soybeans

Wheat markets experienced a week of two halves, marked by initial strength in Chicago and Kansas contracts before fading under the weight of updated global supply projections and brisk long liquidation. According to the weekly performance data, SRW wheat gained 18¼ cents and HRW rose 11¼ cents for the week, while Minneapolis contracts ended flat.

Despite early support from strong US export sales, including a private sale of white wheat to China and a marketing-year high in reported bookings, fresh International Grains Council data showing a 3-million-ton increase in global production and steady world stocks at 275 million tons contributed to renewed selling pressure. Wheat also remained sensitive to large supply projections from Russia, India and Western Australia, each reinforcing the narrative of a comfortable world balance sheet.

Corn futures held a more stable tone through the week but ultimately softened, even with multiple bullish catalysts. Weekly gains totaled 4¾ cents as recorded mid-week, with the market briefly supported by exceptionally strong US export sales of 2.26 million tons — the highest of the marketing year and nearly 85% above the same week last year — and additional demand from South Korea’s aggregate tenders.

However, futures were kept in check by only marginal upward revisions to global supply in the IGC report, steady harvest progress in key producing regions and ongoing evidence of adequate world availability. The expiring December contract saw an active shift of open interest into March, reflecting typical seasonal positioning rather than structural market concern.

Soybean futures led the downside across the oilseed complex following a period of sharp rallies triggered by Chinese buying. Despite strong mid-week gains totaling 23–33¼ cents, the front-month contract ended the week lower as markets “sold the fact” of Chinese purchases rather than reacted to them optimistically. Weekly sales reached roughly 919,000–924,000 tons, with USDA daily reporting confirming 462,000 tons sold to China and total known Chinese purchases since early October rising above 1.8 million tons.

Yet record Brazilian production, softer soymeal and soyoil markets and IGC figures trimming global supply by 2 million tons while confirming ample ending stocks at 77 million tons capped further upside. Soymeal and soyoil experienced similar dynamics, with both initially supported by rising global demand but limited by the weight of abundant South American supply.

Weather Developments and Climate-Driven Market Risks

Weather patterns across major producing regions played a central role this week, shaping both immediate market sentiment and expectations for the winter and early-2026 growing season.

In North America, warm conditions dominated most of the US, with moderate to heavy rainfall episodes improving soil moisture across the Plains and Midwest. A major cold front is expected around Thanksgiving, ushering in a sharp temperature decline and accelerating winter wheat dormancy. The Central and Southern Plains will receive successive storm systems, providing much-needed moisture for wheat before colder Arctic air arrives. Meanwhile, the Mississippi River remains at critically low levels, restricting barge movement despite incoming rain — a continuing logistical bottleneck heading into winter.

South America showed the most concerning divergence. In Brazil, a stalled front produced heavy rainfall across central and northern areas while southern states such as Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná received only light, inconsistent showers. If this pattern continues into December, major corn and soybean areas may face moisture stress at a critical stage of development. Analysts increasingly warn of expanding drought risks stretching from southern Brazil into Argentina and Paraguay, threatening yield potential if rains fail to materialize during reproductive stages.

Argentina’s weather outlook also shifted less favorably. Although earlier rains brought widespread moisture, the upcoming pattern suggests decreasing precipitation, with only patchy showers expected. High soil moisture currently supports early growth, but without sustained rainfall, conditions may deteriorate rapidly — a scenario particularly concerning given the ongoing flood-related planting delays.

Europe experienced cooler weather with scattered showers and increasing snowfall across Austria, southern Poland and parts of Central Europe. These shifts encourage winter crop dormancy and generally support initial crop establishment, though southwestern Russia continues to suffer from dryness that threatens winter wheat viability. The Black Sea’s above-normal temperatures are further delaying dormancy across northern areas, adding a layer of vulnerability heading into winter.

Across Asia, southern India, South Korea, Japan and parts of Southeast Asia saw above-normal rainfall, while northern China experienced mixed conditions. Heavy rains earlier in October created localized issues, but overall, China’s winter wheat, canola and late corn harvest reported favorable progress.

Broader Market Dynamics and Macro Influences

The global oilseed complex benefitted from strong US soybean crush data, with NOPA reporting a record October crush of 227.647 million bushels — sharply above expectations — and rising soyoil stocks. This reflects expanded crush capacity linked to biofuel demand, even as federal policy signals remain mixed. Ethanol production and stocks rose modestly, indicating steady demand but not yet the surge needed to materially tighten corn balances. Meanwhile, biodiesel credit generation increased, hinting at firm underlying demand despite political uncertainty surrounding broader US energy and farm legislation.

In Brazil’s domestic markets, firm demand for soybean meal continues to support spot soybean values. Prices are rising modestly in key regions, though sellers remain cautious given high remaining stocks from the previous season and expectations of a record 2025/26 crop. Corn markets in Brazil remain mixed: values are low in the Central-West but firmer elsewhere as exporters push volumes through ports despite the strengthening real. First-crop planting is expanding, but high domestic surplus and a favorable production outlook keep a cap on prices for now.

India also contributed to oilseed momentum as its October oilmeal exports rose sharply to 371,235 tons, driven by strong soymeal shipments. Rapeseed meal exports fell, but rising rice-bran and castorseed meal shipments underline diverse demand patterns across Asia and the Middle East.