Wheat

Chicago wheat futures closed weaker on Monday, with December 2025 SRW ending at $5.22¼ per bushel, down 4¾ cents, as winter wheat once again led the declines while Minneapolis spring wheat remained steady. The pressure continued despite an exceptional weekly export inspection report, which rose 92% from the previous week to 474,530 tons, pushing cumulative exports 19.65% above last year. US winter wheat planting reached 97%, in line with the seasonal pace, and good-to-excellent ratings improved to 48%, although they remain below last year’s level. FranceAgriMer maintained exceptionally strong French crop conditions at 98% G/E, and Saudi Arabia purchased 300,000 tons in a new tender, underscoring solid global demand even as futures are pulled down by abundant supply and macro pressure.

Corn

Corn futures began the week lower, with the December 2025 contract closing at $4.23¾ per bushel, down 1¾ cents, amid mixed technical and fundamental signals. The US corn harvest reached 96%, just one point below the five-year average, and exports totaled 1.63 million tons — 61.8% above last year, though below the exceptionally strong pace of the previous week. The national US cash corn price index slipped slightly to $3.87½, indicating steady but modest physical demand. Brazilian corn prices strengthened again, supported by cautious farmer selling and ongoing first-crop fieldwork, even though the global balance remains comfortable due to strong 2024/25 and 2025/26 production expectations. Brazilian planting reached 93% but remains slightly behind last year’s pace.

Soybeans

Soybean futures ended Monday slightly lower, with January 2026 soybeans at $11.23¼ per bushel, down 1¾ cents, as the market balanced weak export flows against rising expectations of renewed US–China trade commitments. USDA reported a private sale of 123,000 tons to China, and US Agriculture Secretary Rollins indicated both countries expect to finalize the previously discussed 12 MMT soybean purchase agreement within days. However, export inspections painted a darker picture: shipments collapsed to 799,042 tons, the lowest for this week since 2006, with marketing-year exports 44.5% below last year. Domestic soybean crush remains at record levels, while Brazilian planting reached 81%, lagging due to irregular rainfall and the need for replanting.

Global Drivers and Key Headlines

The largest macro shock came from the US protein sector, where Tyson Foods announced the closure of its major beef-processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska, affecting 3,200 employees, and reduced operations at its Amarillo, Texas, facility. The decision reflects the smallest US cattle herd in nearly 75 years, caused by years of drought-driven forced culling. The beef division recorded an adjusted $426 million loss over the past 12 months and expects $400–600 million in losses in 2026. For the grain market, this indicates a medium-term reduction in feed demand, particularly for corn and soymeal, even as high beef prices maintain a structurally tight protein market.

Fresh US data highlighted the growing role of processing and biofuels. The August soybean crush reached a record 198 million bushels, +18.2% year-on-year, driven by expanding renewable diesel–linked capacity. Soybean oil stocks rose nearly 10%, and corn used for ethanol reached 463.4 million bushels, slightly higher month-on-month but 3.4% below last year. Total corn use in mills fell 3.9%, indicating stable industrial demand but not strong enough to offset the bearish pressure in futures.

US livestock dynamics continue to influence feed markets. October feedlot placements fell 10%, and total feedlot inventories fell 2.2%. Marketings declined 8%, confirming the tightening supply environment. In contrast, milk production rose 3.9%, with per-cow output up 1.5%, suggesting robust feed demand in the dairy sector even as the beef sector contracts.

South American weather is becoming one of the major global risks, with Argentina and southern Brazil shifting increasingly toward dryness. Meteorologists warn of below-normal December rainfall, threatening yield formation if rains do not return. In central and northern Brazil, frequent showers stabilize soil moisture, but uneven distribution slows planting and increases replanting needs.

Brazil’s domestic markets reflected this climate tension. Corn prices remained firm, and soybean prices rose slightly as farmers avoided selling. The CEPEA/ESALQ soybean index rose 1.2% in Paranaguá and 1.1% in Paraná, soymeal increased 1.3%, while soybean oil fell 2.5%.

Global weather added another layer of volatility. A wave of strong systems is set to cross the US Midwest, Delta and Plains, bringing rain, snow and Arctic air that will push wheat into dormancy. The Mississippi River remains critically low, affecting barge logistics. Europe saw favorable rains, while southwestern Russia continues to experience drought despite improvements in Ukraine.

Beyond the Americas, shifts in trade routes and agricultural policies continue to shape demand. India and Afghanistan will open new air-cargo corridors to bypass Pakistani road blockages. Indonesia announced ambitious 2026 agricultural targets — including 34.77 million tons of rice and 18 million tons of corn — signaling strategic long-term efforts to strengthen food security.