The new week opens with all three major grain and oilseed contracts in Chicago starting Monday trade under mild pressure, as markets digest a combination of heavy macro headlines, record processing data and increasingly weather-sensitive fundamentals in South America and the US. Futures action is relatively calm in price terms, but the underlying drivers point to a market that is becoming more finely balanced and more vulnerable to the next shift in weather or policy.

Wheat futures in Chicago are fractionally weaker to start Monday, with SRW indicated about 4½ cents below Friday’s December 2025 close at $5.27 per bushel, after a week in which front-month SRW fell 23½ cents and HRW lost 22¾ cents, while Minneapolis spring wheat was flat on the week. For the month to date, SRW and HRW are each down roughly 14–15¼ cents, and year-to-date nearby wheat futures remain lower across all three US exchanges, reflecting a still-comfortable global balance despite pockets of regional stress. Commitment of Traders data show managed money trimming their net short in Chicago wheat to 97,356 contracts while adding to net shorts in KC wheat, underscoring persistent skepticism toward sustained rallies. At the same time, FranceAgriMer rates 98% of French soft wheat in good-to-excellent condition and 95% planted, and Saudi Arabia has bought 300,000 tons in a fresh tender, reminding the market that both fundamentals and demand remain active even as prices drift lower.

Corn is also starting the week on the back foot, with December 2025 CBOT corn trading 1 to 2 cents lower in early Monday action after closing Friday at $4.25½ per bushel, down a penny on the day and 4¾ cents lower on the week. Nearby corn futures ended last week 12½ cents lower overall, and are down 7.7% year-to-date, even as the broader balance sheet remains relatively comfortable rather than burdensome. Managed funds added to their net short, which now stands near 142,000 contracts, while open interest in December fell sharply as options expired and positions rolled into March. The national cmdtyView US cash corn index edged down to $3.87¼ per bushel, suggesting that basis and physical demand are steady but not strong enough to offset macro pressure. Brazilian corn prices, meanwhile, remain firm in many regions as producers focus on summer-crop fieldwork and stay largely away from the spot market, a contrast to the softer tone in US futures.

Soybean futures, which outperformed corn and wheat earlier in the month, are also softer in early Monday trade, down 3 to 5 cents across nearby contracts after a modestly higher close on Friday that left January 2026 up just ½ cent for the week and a full 44½ cents below last week’s high. The front-month January 2026 bean contract last settled at $11.25 per bushel and is now probing slightly below that level on Monday. Over the past week, soybeans fell 35¼ cents, even as the month-to-date move remains positive at +6¾ cents and year-to-date nearby soybean futures are still up 12.4%, buoyed by strong Chinese demand and a record US crush pace. Chinese agricultural futures show January 2026 soybeans higher by 32 yuan while soymeal and soyoil are slightly softer, and Malaysian palm oil has slipped another 14 ringgit to 4,055, tempering enthusiasm in the vegetable oil complex despite supportive fundamentals in parts of the soy value chain.

Across the broader commodity landscape, the most striking headline for today’s session comes from the US protein sector, where Tyson Foods announced it will close its major beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska, in January, affecting roughly 3,200 workers, and will cut the Amarillo, Texas, beef plant back to a single full-capacity shift. The move is a stark response to the tightest US cattle supplies in nearly 75 years and years of drought-driven herd liquidation that have left ranchers struggling to rebuild. Tyson’s beef unit has moved from pandemic-era “fat profits” to an adjusted loss of $426 million over the past 12 months, and the company projects further losses of $400–$600 million in fiscal 2026. For grains, this shift underscores a medium-term contraction in US beef-processing capacity that could modestly temper feed demand over time, even as high beef prices and tight cattle numbers keep the protein sector structurally tight.

Price action across futures and options also reflects a market in transition. Wheat, corn and soybeans all finished last week lower, with nearby wheat contracts down more than 20 cents, corn down over 12 cents and soybeans off more than 35 cents, even as year-to-date performance remains supportive for the oilseed complex and especially soyoil, which is still up more than 25%. Chinese ag futures are mixed, with gains in corn and soybeans offset by declines in soymeal, soyoil and palm, while Malaysian palm oil has eased modestly. Changes in open interest are notable: SRW wheat OI dropped by more than 5,700 contracts, HRW by over 7,100 and corn by almost 53,000, suggesting that last week’s sell-off involved significant liquidation rather than fresh shorting, particularly ahead of the December expiry. These dynamics leave the market less heavily positioned and potentially more sensitive to any fresh shocks in weather, trade or macro policy.

South American weather and planting progress are another central driver for today’s trade. In Brazil, soybean planting for 2025/26 has reached 79.61% of the intended area, slightly behind last year’s pace of 83.29% but ahead of both 2023/24 (68.75%) and the five-year average of 75.16%. Irregular rainfall across large swaths of the country is contributing to delays and raising concerns about yield potential, especially where replanting may be required. Mato Grosso, the country’s top-producing state, is 98.4% planted, just under last year’s rapid 99.8% pace, but still leading the nation by a wide margin. At the same time, meteorologists warn that a “slow trend to dry conditions” is emerging across the Argentine Pampas and southern Brazil, where overall rainfall into December is expected to be below normal. Soil moisture is still high for now, but the drier pattern, if sustained, would steadily erode that buffer just as corn and soybeans approach more vulnerable development stages.

Domestic price signals in Brazil echo this tension between good current stocks and rising forward risk. According to Cepea, corn prices within Brazil have been relatively firm, with sellers largely withdrawn from the market as they focus on summer-crop activities, and prices showing small but steady increases in both wholesale and farmgate segments. In soybeans, a patchy rainfall pattern and the need for replanting in some areas have made farmers more cautious about forward selling, reducing liquidity on the spot market and nudging prices higher. The CEPEA/ESALQ soybean index at Paranaguá rose 1.2% between November 13 and 19 to 141.70 BRL per 60-kg bag, while the Paraná index increased 1.1% to 135.85 BRL, with average wholesale and farmgate prices also modestly higher. Soymeal prices climbed 1.3% across surveyed regions over the same period, reflecting solid demand, whereas soy oil slipped 2.5% to about 7,034 BRL per ton, highlighting a divergence within the complex that traders will watch closely for clues about crush margins and product demand.

In the United States, fresh demand-side data reinforce the importance of processing and biofuel channels for grains and oilseeds. USDA’s monthly Fats & Oils report showed a record August soybean crush of 198 million bushels, up 18.2% from the same month a year earlier, even as crude and once-refined soybean oil stocks were nearly 10% higher year-on-year. The latest oilseed crush numbers confirm ongoing expansion in US processing capacity tied to renewable diesel and biofuel demand. At the same time, USDA’s grain crushing report revealed that 463.4 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol in August, up 1.2% from July but down 3.4% from a year earlier, with total corn consumption by mills for fuel and other products falling 3.9% year-on-year to 511 million bushels. For now, these figures suggest robust but not explosive demand—sufficient to support basis and keep end-users engaged, but not yet tight enough to meaningfully alter the broader bearish tone in corn futures.

Livestock and dairy data add another layer to the grain demand story. USDA’s latest Cattle on Feed report showed October placements into large US feedlots at 2.04 million head, down 10% from a year ago and more than the 8.1% decline analysts were expecting. The feedlot herd as of November 1 was 2.2% smaller year-on-year at 11.706 million head, and cattle marketed from feedlots in October were down 8% to 1.697 million head. These figures confirm the tightening trend in US cattle supplies that underpins Tyson’s plant closure decision, and they raise questions about medium-term feed grain use in the beef sector. In contrast, US milk production rose 3.9% year-on-year in October across the 24 major producing states, with output per cow up 1.5%—a reminder that feed demand in the dairy sector remains strong even as beef and cattle herds contract.

Weather developments across the Northern and Southern Hemispheres remain a core source of climate-driven market risk as December approaches. In North America, a series of storm systems will bring rain and snow across the Midwest, Delta and Plains, followed by a major burst of arctic air that is expected to usher in winter conditions, end remaining fieldwork and push winter wheat more quickly into dormancy. The Northern Plains face potential blizzard conditions and sharply colder temperatures, while the Mississippi River, though slightly improved after recent rains, remains low enough to constrain barge logistics. In South America, forecasts call for continued showers in central Brazil that should stabilize soil moisture in key soybean zones, even as rainfall in the south is expected to be light and irregular, slowly increasing drought risk. Argentina’s Pampas region retains high soil moisture for now, but the outlook calls for mostly dry conditions into December, with only scattered showers and no major heat yet—setting up a scenario where conditions could slide from favorable to stressed if rains do not return in time.

Beyond the core exporting regions, secondary but still relevant developments round out today’s macro picture. Indonesia’s agriculture ministry has set ambitious production targets for 2026, including 34.77 million tons of rice and 18 million tons of corn, up from current-year levels, signaling a continued push for food security and potentially lower dependence on imports. India’s oilmeal exports in October surged to more than 371,000 tons on strong soymeal shipments, with rising exports of rice-bran and castorseed meal underscoring diversified demand patterns across Asia and the Middle East. Meanwhile, India and Afghanistan are preparing to launch new air-cargo corridors between Kabul, Delhi and Amritsar to circumvent overland trade disruptions via Pakistan, potentially opening up fresh demand channels for grains, food products and industrial goods into Afghanistan. These developments may not move today’s futures sharply on their own, but they contribute to a larger backdrop of shifting trade routes and evolving demand centers that the grain and oilseed markets will need to absorb over the coming months.