Wheat

At the start of Tuesday’s Chicago session, the reference level for December ’25 soft red winter wheat was $5.43½/bu, with early trade mixed across the classes after Monday’s firm close. Export inspections improved week over week and year over year, and there’s fresh chatter that China is looking at US wheat, while Russia’s sizable 2025/26 crop idea and active export pace remain the key weight in the background. Short-covering in KC and steady Black Sea/ EU FOB indications near ~$230/MT keep the market sensitive to any weather or logistics hiccup.

Corn

Using the prior settlement as the opening reference, December ’25 corn began Tuesday around $4.34¼/bu before slipping a few cents in early trade. The tone is underpinned by a strong US export inspections print (1.669 MMT) led by Mexico, South Korea and Japan, plus steady domestic cash averages, but harvest is advancing quickly and private yield ideas near ~186 bpa keep rallies in check. Brazil’s ethanol outlook and Center-South summer corn planting progress near 60% add cross-currents as traders balance southern Brazil showers against Cerrado dryness pockets.

Soybeans

November ’25 soybeans came in near $11.19¾/bu at the start of the session before giving back part of Monday’s gains as traders weighed brisk US–Brazil–China trade dynamics against uneven South American weather. US inspections slowed to ~0.97 MMT, but Egypt led takers and open interest rose on the rally, while Chinese buyers booked multiple Brazilian cargoes as price spreads swung back in South America’s favor. Planting in Brazil is 47% complete—behind last year—with irregular rains and heat raising replanting risk in parts of the Cerrado.

Global drivers and today’s market movers

Chinese demand is pivoting tactically toward Brazil as South American beans have turned cheaper than US Gulf offers, with traders reporting roughly ten December and ten March–July Brazilian cargoes booked. At the same time, Beijing and Washington’s new agreement signals stepped-up farm trade, including guidance that China will buy at least 12 MMT of US soybeans in Nov–Dec 2025 and 25 MMT annually over the next three years—details traders are watching for confirmation and tariff adjustments to unlock.

Australia is preparing its first canola shipment to China in five years, a ~60,000-ton trial cargo out of Esperance bound for Qingdao, with at least three trial liftings penciled in for Q4. If successful, this diversifies China’s oilseed inflows at a time when Canada–China oilseed trade remains tense, and it could nudge global vegoil balances and crush margins through winter.

Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean planting sits at 47% versus 54% a year ago as irregular rains slow work in Goiás, parts of Matopiba and Minas/São Paulo; replanting risk is rising if heat and patchy showers persist. First-crop corn in Center–South is ~60% planted, roughly in line with last year, while Mato Grosso and the Central-West maintain better momentum—an uneven setup that will keep supply expectations fluid into December.

Weather is split: another wet spell late week targets Argentina’s Pampas and southern Brazil—unhelpful for mature wheat and potentially sowing delays—but more favorable, steady showers continue in Central-West Brazil. In the US, a warm 15-day outlook with mostly light precipitation favors late harvest logistics; the Southern Plains see warmth with limited moisture near term, helpful for fieldwork but still putting a premium on the next meaningful winter-wheat rain.

US export inspections offered mixed support: corn at 1.669 MMT (well above last year), wheat at 350k tons (up sharply w/w and y/y), and soybeans at 965k tons (down w/w and y/y), with Mexico leading corn and wheat and Egypt prominent for soybeans. The flow suggests firm near-term demand for US corn while soybeans remain in a tug-of-war with Brazil on price and availability.

Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export outlook was nudged up to ~43.8 MMT as import demand rebuilds and production ideas remain hefty. October shipments near 5.4 MMT and an early-November pace that could flirt with a record underpin FOB stability around ~$230/MT, though consultants flag potential seasonal slowdowns ahead and competition from big Argentine and Australian harvests.

Kazakhstan finished harvest with 27.1 MMT total grain (wheat ~20.3 MMT) and 4.3 MMT oilseeds, while Ukraine’s winter sowing reached ~90% of plan at ~5.9 million hectares for the 2026 crop. Together, these Black Sea/Central Asia updates support robust regional supply expectations into 1H26, even as logistics and weather can still alter timing and quality outcomes.

Vegetable oils hold a constructive tone as Malaysian palm oil futures remain above 4,000 ringgit/ton, with IOI flagging potential La Niña-related rainfall disruptions into Feb. IOI’s plans to expand organic palm output and diversify into coconut processing by 2027 underscore steady capacity growth, but weather will likely dictate the near-term price path—an input cost signal for global oilseed and feed markets.