Chicago ended Wednesday higher across the grain complex, with soybeans leading as demand headlines and calendar-driven report expectations outweighed lingering questions about global supply and policy noise.

China-related soybean headlines remained the clearest demand catalyst. Sinograin buying (10 U.S. soybean cargoes for March–May) and USDA’s confirmed 336,000 MT private sale to China kept the market focused on incremental export business during Brazil’s peak shipping window, supporting nearby beans into the close even after late-session cross-currents in products.

That buying mattered because the source flagged soybean export commitments as still lagging year-on-year, which keeps price action sensitive to each new purchase headline. A separate USDA correction also reiterated additional soybean sales (136,000 tons to China and 206,700 tons to unknown destinations, both for 2025/26), reinforcing that export flow is still an active driver for soy spreads.

Wheat strength leaned more on supply-risk optics than on confirmed demand. December condition ratings declined in key Plains HRW states (including Kansas), and USDA noted that about 40% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in drought-affected areas—inputs that can keep a weather premium “sticky” when the market is already alert to winter hardiness risk.

The weather setup stayed more volatility-supportive than outright damaging. Above-normal temperatures across U.S. winter wheat belts reduce winter hardiness, while the Southern Plains remain the wetter pocket; a more active U.S. pattern later in the week is largely rain-friendly for major winter crop areas, but the warm-then-cold sequence risk remains a background sensitivity.

Corn had a steadier demand narrative in the background, but the day’s key “close-of-day” macro input came from ethanol. EIA data showed ethanol production slowing week-on-week to 1.098 million bpd, while stocks rose to 22.652 million barrels; lower exports and softer refiner inputs were highlighted as part of a seasonal post-holiday pattern, which can keep corn’s upside more measured unless export sales accelerate.

Vegetable oils stayed two-sided rather than a clean tailwind. Malaysian palm was higher overnight, LSEG maintained Indonesia’s 2025/26 palm production outlook while lifting Malaysia’s 2025/26 view, and separate Indonesia policy headlines about potential additional plantation seizures added longer-horizon uncertainty around supply, even as day-to-day soy oil direction remained spread-driven.

South America signals were supportive but not uniformly bullish for grains. Recent heavy showers in central Brazil helped pod setting with soil moisture still described as very low in places, while Argentina remained a “north better / south-central drier” setup—enough to keep weather premium present without forcing a one-way repricing.

Several non-grain ag headlines reinforced the broader feed and protein-market backdrop. Brazil’s 2025 chicken exports hit a record (despite earlier bird flu bans), Brazil’s December export volumes for soybeans/corn/beef were reported sharply higher year-on-year, and China’s beef quota/tariff structure changes raised uncertainty for meat trade flows—factors that can influence feed demand sentiment at the margin even if they do not directly reprice grain futures each day.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.18, up 7 1/2 cents. Wheat followed the complex higher, with support tied to weaker Plains condition ratings and drought-area optics, while traders also looked ahead to upcoming export sales and winter wheat acreage/report risk.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn closed at $4.46 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents. Corn firmed into the close, but ethanol data (lower production, higher stocks, softer refiner inputs) kept the demand story balanced as the market awaited fresh export-sales confirmation.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $10.52 3/4, up 10 3/4 cents. Beans led as China buying headlines and confirmed USDA sales kept demand in focus, while meal strength helped offset a softer tone in soy oil and kept the complex spread-driven.