Chicago enters Friday with soybeans firmer, wheat and corn softer, as the market balances weak U.S. weekly export sales against China demand signals, Black Sea logistics risks, and shifting South America weather.
U.S. weekly export sales continue to frame near-term sentiment. Corn sales for the week ending January 1 fell to just 377,598 MT, a marketing-year low, while soybean sales slipped to 877,914 MT and wheat sales reached only 118,701 MT. The data reinforced that demand is present but uneven, keeping rallies fragile across the complex.
China demand headlines are back in focus after Sinograin announced a January 13 auction of 1.1 MMT of imported soybeans from the 2022–2025 crop years. This signals active state involvement in managing supplies and keeps the market sensitive to how much near-term coverage is sourced domestically versus from U.S. exports, a dynamic that supports soybean spreads more than outright prices.
Ukraine export risks added a supply-side premium for wheat and corn. December wheat exports fell nearly 25% year-on-year and corn exports declined about 13% as port and logistics strikes intensified. Although diesel generators have improved recent terminal operations, continued infrastructure attacks keep Black Sea reliability in question, which remains structurally supportive for global wheat pricing.
South America weather remains a key driver but with mixed signals. In Brazil, rainfall coverage is thinning in central areas while southern regions stay better supplied, keeping yield confidence uneven for soybeans and first-crop corn. Argentina faces crop stress in western Buenos Aires due to recent dryness, although forecasts for 50–100 mm of rain offer potential short-term relief for corn and soybeans.
FAO food price data provided broader context rather than direct trading signals. The global food price index fell 0.6% in December, with vegetable oils down to a six-month low and grains higher. The divergence highlights why grains remain driven more by regional supply risks and demand flow than by broader food inflation trends.
River logistics in the U.S. remain a quiet constraint. Mississippi barge shipments fell to 404,000 tons, with corn and soybean movements both sharply lower week-on-week, while barge rates increased. This keeps interior basis and export flow efficiency under pressure, particularly for corn and soybeans.
In South America demand channels, Brazil’s record egg exports underscored strong feed demand links, especially from the U.S., even as tariffs forced Brazilian exporters to diversify destinations. This adds longer-term support for corn and soymeal demand without changing near-term CBOT balance sheets.
Positioning and report risk are amplifying sensitivity. Open interest rose in wheat and soy products, while USDA’s WASDE is due Monday, with expectations for lower corn stocks and slightly higher soybean stocks. With weekly sales underwhelming, the market remains vulnerable to headline-driven swings.
Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat was trading about 1 1/4 cents lower early Friday; the source did not provide an opening quote. Wheat remains supported by Black Sea export risks and expectations for slightly lower U.S. ending stocks, but weak weekly sales continue to cap upside.
Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn was near unchanged early Friday after closing at $4.46, down 3/4 cent. Corn is balancing record October exports and South Korean tender demand against the marketing-year-low weekly sales figure and ongoing river logistics constraints.
Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans were trading about 5 1/4 cents higher early Friday; the source did not provide an opening quote. Beans are supported by China-related headlines, including the Sinograin auction and prior U.S. sales to China, while weak weekly export sales and large Brazilian supply narratives keep gains measured.