Black Sea Strikes and Logistics Tighten Supplies, Keeping Prices Supported

Russian strikes on ports and terminal infrastructure in December and into early January sharply reduced Ukraine’s ability to load and ship grain, with analysts reporting December wheat exports fell almost 25% and total grain exports down about 16% year-on-year; the intensified attacks and resulting delays are a direct bullish force for nearby milling wheat and Black Sea origin premiums.

Damage to terminals, containers and loading capacity—plus rolling blackouts—has reduced effective throughput even as some terminals install diesel generators; the result is a durable logistical premium for non-Ukraine origins and a supportive bias for SRW/HRW basis in the near term.

Argentina rains ease near-term dryness risk but keep the market watching

Heavy, forecast rains for Argentina’s agricultural belt during the week improved moisture for late vegetative and reproductive stages of corn and soy, which relieved an immediate weather premium for South American supplies but left the market attentive to subsequent coverage and amounts. The Buenos Aires and Rosario exchanges highlighted forecast totals of 25–75 mm into the weekend and noted improvements that are positive for both corn and soy yields.

Because Argentina is a major exporter, the prospect of better rainfall shifted some downside risk off world corn and soy balances; traders treated the news as soy/corn bearish relative to earlier dryness concerns but remained cautious given spatial variability and remaining pockets of drought.

Brazil — mixed wet/dry pattern and record shipments keep markets balanced

Central Brazil saw useful showers that helped pod set in soybeans and first-corn areas, while other central-west and southeast areas face emerging dryness and heat risk later in January; consultancies and ministries revised production and shipment estimates modestly but noted areas to watch. These mixed conditions left Brazil a two-edged factor: improved outcomes for some southern and central areas but lingering yield risk where rains are thin.

Brazil’s record 2025 soy exports and strong December corn/soy shipment numbers supported the global availability argument that keeps long-term pressure on prices even as weather risks create episodic support.

China buying and state actions kept soybean flows and volatility elevated

China continued to be an active buyer of U.S. soybeans (multiple private sales and Sinograin activity), and Sinograin’s announced 1.1 MMT auction for Jan.13 plus repeated commercial buys through the week provided mechanical support under Chicago soy complex while creating intra-week volatility. The presence of both large private sales and state auction activity left soybeans sensitive to any further China reports.

Net effect: Chinese buying is supportive for soymeal/soybeans and is a primary reason funds reduced net shorts or trimmed longs at various points, creating choppy trade but an overall constructive demand backdrop for the oilseed complex.

U.S. export data and inspections showed strong marketing-year pace for corn and mixed soy/wheat signals

Weekly and monthly shipment & export-sales data painted a differentiated picture: corn commitments and shipments year-to-date were well ahead of last year and USDA targets (supportive for corn prices), while soybean shipments were down year-on-year in some reports even as recent sales recovered toward trade expectations. Wheat export commitments were above last year on a marketing-year basis but showed week-to-week variability. Markets parsed these reports as supportive for corn, mixed for soy, and cautiously bullish for wheat given the Black Sea issues.

Freight, river and port logistics remain a structural constraint for U.S. corn/soy flows into export channels

Mississippi River barge shipments fell and St. Louis barge rates ticked higher during the week; low river levels and episodic rainfall arrivals mean U.S. logistical basis can tighten rapidly, favoring nearby basis for export-shippable corn and soybeans and adding a modest supportive bent to CBOT nearby contracts. Traders continued to monitor river notes for shipment bottlenecks and seasonal demand into export programs.

Energy, biofuels and crush dynamics provided cross-commodity drivers

Ethanol production data and industry moves were supportive for corn demand; weekly ethanol output remained near the level needed to meet USDA corn-for-ethanol usage projections and expansion projects (e.g., Poet doubling Indiana capacity) were flagged as multi-year demand increases for corn. Vegetable-oil dynamics—lower palm oil at times and policy moves in Indonesia/Malaysia—kept soyoil and thus crush/bean balance in focus. These energy and biofuels factors created a constructive demand narrative for corn and mixed pressure/support for soy complex depending on crush margins.

Positioning & funds flows added to intra-week swings

CFTC/COT snapshots during the week showed funds moving in both directions across the complex: managed money increased net shorts in CBT wheat while reducing net shorts in some Kansas contracts; corn funds trimmed net shorts mid-week and then fluctuated; soybean spec longs were pared to multi-week lows before partial recovery. The net effect was heightened sensitivity to headlines—fund flows amplified moves on Black Sea and China news and created quick intra-week reversals.

Wheat — Mar 26 CBOT wheat ended the week narrowly higher, finishing the latest session at $5.17 1/4 after trading between roughly $5.10 1/2 and $5.18 during the week; the dominant theme was export disruption and port strikes in Ukraine that tightened near-term Black Sea availability and provided the main supporting impulse, while U.S. export sales and stocks expectations left room for further headline-driven volatility.

Corn — Mar 26 CBOT corn closed the week marginally higher at $4.45 3/4, with the week witnessing a narrow trade band (mixing $4.44 1/2 to $4.46 3/4) as strong year-to-date export commitments and steady ethanol demand underpinned prices; logistical risks on the Mississippi River and South Korean tender activity added episodic support, while improved South American weather tempered larger rallies.

Soybeans — Jan 26 CBOT soybeans finished the week essentially unchanged to marginally firmer, closing at $10.48 1/2 after mid-week highs above $10.52 3/4; Chinese buying and private sales propped nearby sentiment, and Sinograin auction/news created intraday swings, while South American harvest/shipments and Argentina rain prospects were the offsetting factors that limited sustained upside.