Grain markets are extending Wednesday’s recovery into the start of Thursday’s session, with corn and wheat posting early gains and soybeans holding slightly higher. The tone remains constructive after heavy selling earlier in the week, as participants increasingly shift attention from supply revisions toward near-term demand confirmation.

Wheat is drawing support from both technical and fundamental factors. Winter wheat futures are trading higher this morning after modest gains on Wednesday, while open interest rose across Chicago and Kansas City contracts, suggesting renewed participation rather than short-covering alone. Limited precipitation forecasts for the Southern Plains keep some weather risk in the background, particularly for HRW areas.

Export demand is a key wheat driver today. Saudi Arabia issued a tender to purchase 595,000 MT of wheat with a Friday deadline, and a South Korean buyer secured 50,000 MT of U.S. wheat overnight. These tenders reinforce global demand interest at current price levels and lend near-term support to wheat futures.

Attention is also on U.S. wheat export sales data due this morning. Traders are looking for 100,000–450,000 MT of 2025/26 sales, with minimal activity expected for the 2026/27 marketing year. The results will be closely watched for confirmation that recent price stability is translating into commercial buying.

Corn is extending its rebound after Wednesday’s bullish energy data. EIA figures showing U.S. ethanol production surging to a record 1.196 million barrels per day continue to underpin corn demand, reinforcing usage at a time when supply remains ample. Rising exports and higher refiner inputs add to the supportive narrative.

Global production updates are providing a mixed backdrop for corn. Brazil’s CONAB held its 2025/26 corn production estimate steady at 138.87 MMT, while Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange raised its corn crop estimate to 62 MMT. These figures reinforce expectations for large South American supplies, limiting upside even as near-term demand improves.

Soybeans are trading with modest gains as the market awaits a key data point. Traders are positioned ahead of the NOPA crush report expected later today, with consensus estimates calling for a December crush of around 224.8 million bushels. Confirmation of strong processing would reinforce demand, though higher oil stocks and weaker energy markets remain offsetting factors.

Export sales data are another focal point for soybeans and the soy complex. Expectations call for 0.8–1.8 MMT of soybean sales for the week ending January 8, alongside solid soymeal demand. Brazil’s soybean production estimate was trimmed by 1 MMT to 176.12 MMT, offering mild support but not enough to shift the broader supply outlook.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is starting the session up 4 1/2 cents after closing Wednesday at $5.12 1/2, up 2 cents. Early strength reflects fresh export tenders, rising open interest, and limited precipitation forecasts for key U.S. winter wheat regions.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is trading about 2 1/4 cents higher at the start of the day after settling Wednesday at $4.22, up 2 1/4 cents. Record ethanol production and anticipation of solid U.S. export sales are supporting prices despite large South American crop expectations.

Soybeans: Jan ’26 CBOT soybeans are fractionally higher after a Wednesday close at $10.30 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents. Traders are focused on today’s NOPA crush data and upcoming export sales, with demand strength offset by softer energy markets and ample global supply.