Chicago grain futures are higher early Thursday, extending Wednesday’s rally as a weaker U.S. dollar, active fund participation, and persistent weather risks in South America and the U.S. Plains keep buyers engaged. With USDA Export Sales due later today, traders are positioning for confirmation of demand while monitoring ethanol data and evolving crop weather signals.

Wheat is again setting the pace at the start of the session, building on a strong Wednesday close. Open interest increased by 4,552 contracts in Chicago SRW, signaling fresh buying rather than short-covering. Combined with ongoing softness in the dollar index, the move reinforces wheat’s relative strength across the grain complex.

Weather remains a key driver for winter wheat. Forecasts continue to show limited precipitation across much of the Southern Plains, with only marginal moisture expected along the eastern edges of HRW areas. This keeps soil moisture concerns elevated and supports wheat prices as traders factor in ongoing winter risk.

Export expectations are also in focus for wheat. USDA is set to release Export Sales for the week ending January 22, with trade estimates ranging from 275,000 to 600,000 MT. A result toward the upper end of that range would validate the recent rally, while a softer number could slow momentum later in the session.

Corn is trading modestly higher early Thursday, drawing support from wheat-led spillover strength and continued dollar weakness. Wednesday’s session saw open interest rise by 20,796 contracts, pointing to new long positioning and improved sentiment rather than technical short-covering alone.

Ethanol fundamentals remain mixed but are not derailing corn’s early gains. EIA data showed ethanol production slipping slightly to 1.114 million bpd for the week ending January 23, while stocks fell by 339,000 barrels to 25.4 million barrels. The stock draw and higher refiner inputs helped cushion the impact of lower exports, keeping the tone neutral-to-supportive.

Soybeans are also firmer to start the day, supported by strength in the product markets. Soymeal continues to attract buying interest amid drier Argentine forecasts heading into critical crop stages, reinforcing concerns over yield potential. That meal strength is offsetting ongoing softness in soy oil.

Argentina remains a focal point for oilseed and feed grain traders. Forecasts continue to highlight dryness across large portions of the southern half of the country, with only sporadic rainfall expected near term. While models hint at potential improvement in early February, current conditions are supportive for soybeans and corn until clearer relief materializes.

Export sales expectations are central for soybeans and corn as well. Analysts are looking for 0.4 to 1.8 MMT in old-crop soybean sales and 1.1 to 2.6 MMT of corn bookings. With positioning already leaning bullish, today’s data could either extend gains or introduce near-term volatility depending on how results compare to expectations.

Wheat: Mar ’26 CBOT wheat is trading around $5.41 3/4/bu early Thursday, up about 5 3/4 cents after closing Wednesday at $5.36/bu, up 12 3/4 cents. Strength is driven by new buying, a weaker dollar, and continued concern over limited Plains precipitation.

Corn: Mar ’26 CBOT corn is near $4.32 1/2/bu early Thursday, up roughly 2 1/2 cents after settling Wednesday at $4.30/bu, up 3 1/2 cents. Gains reflect spillover from wheat, rising open interest, and stable ethanol stock data.

Soybeans: Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans are trading near $10.83 1/2/bu early Thursday, up about 8 1/2 cents after closing Wednesday at $10.75/bu, up 7 3/4 cents. Support is coming from strong soymeal demand tied to Argentine weather risks, with traders awaiting export sales confirmation.