Core Market Drivers
Wheat futures opened Wednesday weaker across all U.S. classes, extending early pressure as forecasts point to warming temperatures and snowmelt in central and southern Plains winter wheat areas. While cold risks have faded for now, persistent dryness and uneven soil moisture remain a medium-term concern for crop conditions, limiting the downside.
European wheat exports reached 12.82 MMT from July 1 to February 1, matching last year’s pace. This parity suggests steady demand but offers little fresh support for global prices, keeping wheat markets sensitive to weather and Black Sea developments.
Ukraine’s winter crops were not damaged by January frosts, according to state forecasters, easing concerns over Black Sea supply risks. Although ice crust formation was noted in some regions, minimum soil temperatures reportedly stayed above critical thresholds, reducing near-term risk premiums in wheat.
Corn futures are trading lower early Wednesday after posting gains in the prior session. Market attention is centered on upcoming EIA ethanol data, with production expected to decline week-on-week, potentially capping near-term demand optimism.
The U.S. Treasury’s proposed guidance on the 45Z clean fuel tax credit provided more regulatory clarity but left key questions unresolved, including methodology and foreign feedstock rules. While supportive for biofuels longer term, the need for further hearings in May limits immediate bullish impact on corn.
Export demand offered mixed signals, with a South Korean importer purchasing 65,000 metric tons of corn in a private tender. The deal underscores steady Asian demand but was not large enough to offset broader macro and energy-market caution.
Soybeans also opened lower despite strength in soy oil on Tuesday. The 45Z guidance added premium to bean oil markets, but weaker soymeal prices and declining EU soybean imports continue to pressure the complex.
Weather in South America remains a critical variable, with heavy rains in central Brazil supporting late soybean development while dryness concerns persist in Argentina. Traders remain cautious, as February rainfall patterns will be key for final yield outcomes.
Crop Futures Wrap
Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat opened Wednesday down 3 cents after closing Tuesday at $5.28 3/4, up 1 cent. Early losses reflect improving Plains weather conditions and easing Black Sea supply concerns.
Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn is down 2 cents early Wednesday after closing Tuesday at $4.28 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents. Trade is focused on ethanol production expectations and biofuel policy developments.
Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans are down 1 3/4 cents at the start of Wednesday trade after closing Tuesday at $10.65 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents. Pressure comes from weaker meal markets and soft EU import demand, partially offset by strength in soy oil.