Core Market Drivers
Soybeans dominated Wednesday’s trade after a mid-morning update from President Trump confirmed a phone call with China’s President Xi, which shifted market sentiment sharply. Comments indicating a push to lift U.S. soybean commitments to 20 MMT for the current season injected fresh demand optimism, driving aggressive buying across the soybean complex and lifting prices decisively.
The soybean rally spilled into soymeal and soy oil markets, reinforcing the bullish tone. Soymeal futures posted gains of $1.30 to $4.60, while soy oil rose 101 to 117 points in nearby contracts, reflecting expectations of stronger crush demand tied to potential export growth.
Corn futures ended the session modestly higher, drawing indirect support from the soybean rally. The market also reacted to USDA’s announcement of a private export sale of 130,480 MT of corn to unknown destinations, underscoring steady international demand even as traders awaited weekly export sales data.
Ethanol data released Wednesday provided a mixed backdrop for corn. U.S. ethanol production fell sharply to 956,000 barrels per day for the week ending January 30, down 158,000 bpd from the prior week, while stocks declined to 25.136 million barrels. Lower production weighed on demand expectations, but declining inventories and higher exports helped balance sentiment.
Wheat futures moved lower across all classes, pressured by continued concerns over large global supplies. The lack of immediate weather threats and expectations for moderate U.S. export sales limited buying interest, keeping the wheat complex on the defensive throughout the session.
Weather developments in the U.S. Plains reinforced the bearish wheat tone. Forecasts calling for above-normal temperatures and snowmelt reduced near-term winterkill risk, while ongoing dryness was not enough to offset the perception of comfortable supply conditions.
Black Sea supply risks also eased after Ukrainian forecasters reported that winter crops were not damaged by January frosts. Soil temperatures reportedly stayed above critical thresholds, reducing risk premiums tied to Ukraine, a key winter wheat producer.
Broader market focus shifted toward upcoming USDA export sales reports for all three crops. While expectations for corn and soybeans remained constructive, uncertainty around wheat demand kept traders cautious, contributing to the day’s divergent performance across the grain complex.
| CBOT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | Contract | USD/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 193.55 | -0.73 |
| Corn | March | 169.09 | +0.39 |
| Soybeans | March | 401.33 | +9.74 |
| Soymeal | March | 326.50 | +4.74 |
| EURONEXT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris | Contract | EUR/mt | +/- |
| Wheat | March | 193.75 | +0.50 |
| Corn | March | 191.50 | +0.50 |
| Rapeseed | May | 482.75 | +5.25 |
Crop Futures Wrap
Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat closed at $5.26 3/4, down 2 cents on the day. Losses were driven by large global supplies, easing weather risks in the U.S. Plains, and limited near-term demand optimism ahead of export sales data.
Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn settled at $4.29 1/2, up 1 cent. Gains were supported by a confirmed private export sale and spillover strength from soybeans, partially offset by weaker U.S. ethanol production data.
Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans surged to close at $10.92 1/4, up 26 1/2 cents. The rally was fueled by renewed optimism over U.S.–China trade discussions and expectations for increased Chinese soybean purchases.