Core Market Drivers

Soybeans remained the central driver of grain-market sentiment on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s sharp rally. Futures built on optimism sparked by President Trump’s comments that China is considering raising U.S. soybean purchases to 20 million metric tons in the current season, compared with 12 million tons previously stated. The renewed focus on U.S.–China trade relations continued to attract buying interest despite lingering questions about price competitiveness versus Brazilian supplies.

Export sales data provided a mixed but supportive backdrop for soybeans. USDA reported 436,949 MT of soybean sales for the week ending January 29, down sharply from the previous week but still 32.34% above the same period last year. China accounted for 233,000 MT of the total, reinforcing the narrative that Chinese demand remains engaged even as Brazil’s harvest accelerates.

Strength in the soybean complex was reinforced by solid soybean meal demand. Meal sales totaled 380,335 MT, landing squarely within trade expectations and supporting gains of $5 to $7 per ton in futures. Soy oil was comparatively subdued, trading steady to slightly lower, as vegetable oil markets digested news of weaker sunflower oil demand from India.

India’s edible oil market developments weighed indirectly on vegetable oil sentiment. Expectations that India’s sunflower oil imports will fall to a four-year low due to elevated price premiums have shifted demand toward cheaper palm oil alternatives. This dynamic capped upside in soy oil even as soybeans and meal benefited from trade optimism.

Corn futures struggled early but managed to recover, ultimately closing higher on the day. Weekly export sales of 1.04 MMT came in below both last week and last year, but the presence of strong demand from Mexico, Japan, and South Korea helped prevent deeper losses. Spillover support from soybeans and meal also contributed to corn’s late-session strength.

Ethanol data remained a key influence on corn. U.S. ethanol production dropped to 956,000 barrels per day for the week ending January 30, the lowest level since April 2024, reflecting disruptions from recent winter storms. Although lower production weighed on demand expectations, declining ethanol stocks helped stabilize sentiment.

Wheat markets posted solid gains across all classes, supported by short-covering and broader strength in the grain complex. Export sales of 373,877 MT were weaker than both the prior week and last year, but steady buying from destinations such as the Philippines, Taiwan, and Mexico provided some encouragement. Gains were achieved despite ongoing pressure from large global supplies.

Global supply fundamentals continued to cap wheat rallies. Russia reported a 2025 wheat crop of 93 MMT, including Russian-held Ukrainian territories, with 2026 planted area expected at 83 MMT. These figures reinforced the perception of ample world availability, limiting the market’s upside even as prices moved higher on the day.

Weather developments remained mixed across key producing regions. Warm conditions and dryness in parts of the U.S. Plains continued to raise concerns for winter wheat moisture ahead of spring, while South American weather showed contrasting impacts. Heavy rains in central Brazil supported late soybeans but raised questions about harvest pace, while ongoing dryness in Argentina continued to threaten yield potential for both soybeans and corn.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:

March 2026 CBOT wheat closed at $5.35 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents. Gains were driven by broad grain-market strength and short-covering, though large global supplies and softer export sales continue to limit upside potential.

Corn:

March 2026 CBOT corn settled at $4.35, up 5 1/2 cents. The market recovered from early weakness on spillover support from soybeans and meal, with ethanol stock declines helping offset weaker production and export sales data.

Soybeans:

March 2026 CBOT soybeans finished at $11.12 1/4, up 20 cents. Prices extended the prior session’s rally on sustained optimism around potential increases in Chinese soybean purchases and continued strength in the meal market.