Core Market Drivers
Grain markets entered Friday on a defensive footing as the FAO projected the global grain stock-to-use ratio to rise to 31.8% in the 2025/26 season, the highest level in 25 years. The outlook reinforced the theme of abundant global supplies, weighing most heavily on wheat and capping upside across the broader grain complex.
Wheat prices are softer despite solid year-on-year export commitment progress. U.S. wheat export commitments reached 21.974 MMT, up 17% from last year and now at 90% of USDA’s forecast, but that pace remains slightly behind the five-year average. The data highlights steady demand but not enough to offset global supply pressure.
Additional supply weight came from Canada, where Statistics Canada reported total wheat stocks at 27.5 MMT as of December 31, up 5.9% from a year ago. Higher North American inventories reinforce bearish wheat fundamentals ahead of the USDA’s updated WASDE next week.
Corn is also trading lower early Friday as traders digest strong cumulative export commitments alongside near-term price pressure. Total U.S. corn export commitments stand at 58.735 MMT, 31% above last year and ahead of the average pace, but that strength is already well known to the market and offering limited fresh support.
Attention is shifting toward the February WASDE, with traders expecting little change to U.S. corn ending stocks, currently estimated at 2.215 billion bushels by the trade. The lack of anticipated bullish surprises is encouraging short-term profit-taking after this week’s volatility.
Soybeans are stabilizing after retreating sharply from intraday highs. Export commitments of 34.29 MMT are now 20% below last year and only 80% of USDA’s forecast, highlighting slower demand progression despite this week’s optimism tied to potential Chinese purchases.
Canadian oilseed data added a mixed tone to the soy complex. Statistics Canada reported canola stocks at 15.62 MMT, up 18.1% year over year, while Canadian soybean stocks fell 26.6% to 3.24 MMT, underscoring diverging supply signals within North America.
South American weather remains a critical variable. Continued heavy rains in central Brazil are supporting late soybean development but raising concerns about harvest delays and logistics, while long-range forecasts still call for below-normal rainfall that could threaten upcoming safrinha corn if sustained.
In Argentina, recent rainfall offered limited relief after prolonged dryness, with crop conditions still vulnerable. While more active weather is possible later this month, traders remain cautious, keeping weather risk as a background support factor rather than a decisive bullish driver for now.
Crop Futures Wrap
Wheat:
March 2026 CBOT wheat is trading at $5.29 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents. Early losses reflect pressure from large global and Canadian supplies and cautious positioning ahead of next week’s WASDE, despite improved U.S. export commitments.
Corn:
March 2026 CBOT corn is at $4.30 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents. Prices are easing on pre-report caution and profit-taking, with strong cumulative export commitments offering underlying support but little immediate lift.
Soybeans:
March 2026 CBOT soybeans are trading at $11.13 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents. The market is holding modest gains after pulling back from earlier highs, balancing China-demand optimism against slower export pace and growing South American supply.