Core Market Drivers

Wheat was the clear outperformer on Thursday, with Chicago SRW futures closing 12 to 15 cents higher and KC HRW up 14 to 15 cents. Mar ’26 CBOT wheat settled at $5.59 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents on the day. Gains were driven by Argentine port strike disruptions, short-term supply risk, and positioning ahead of Friday’s export sales report.

The 48-hour maritime workers’ strike in Argentina brought grain shipments to a halt in Rosario, one of the world’s largest agricultural export hubs. With loading operations stalling and draft limits restricting vessel departures, global wheat and soybean meal markets faced short-term supply tightening, boosting U.S. competitiveness.

USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum released preliminary 2026 wheat estimates, pegging planted acreage at 45 million acres and production at 1.860 bbu with yield at 50.8 bpa. While not overtly bullish, the stable outlook combined with strike-related risk provided supportive momentum into the close.

International Grains Council data showed global wheat stocks down 1 MMT month-over-month to 282 MMT, though still 19 MMT above year-ago levels. This tempered upside enthusiasm by reinforcing that global supplies remain structurally comfortable despite regional disruptions.

Corn futures closed fractionally lower to 1 1/4 cents down, with Mar ’26 CBOT corn settling at $4.25 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents. The market balanced lower U.S. acreage estimates of 94 million acres—down 4.8 million from last year—against comfortable global supply projections and mixed ethanol signals.

EIA data showed ethanol production rising to 1.118 million barrels per day for the week ending 2/13, up 8,000 bpd, while stocks climbed to 25.588 million barrels. Strong output supports corn demand, but rising inventories limited price follow-through.

Soybeans posted gains of 6 to 8 cents across most contracts, with Mar ’26 soybeans closing at $11.41, up 7 1/2 cents. Record January NOPA crush at 221.564 mbu confirmed strong domestic processing demand, while soybean oil surged 112 to 121 points on biofuel quota expectations.

USDA acreage projections from the Ag Outlook Forum showed soybean planted area at 85 million acres, up 3.8 million acres year-over-year and in line with trade estimates. Production was estimated at 4.45 bbu with yield at 53 bpa, reinforcing longer-term supply expansion potential.

Brazilian export estimates from ANEC trimmed soybean shipments to 11.46 MMT for February, down from 11.71 MMT last week, while corn exports were raised to 1.12 MMT. Slight downward revisions to soy exports balanced bullish crush data, keeping trade orderly.

Weather remained sharply divided across South America. Flooding risks persist in parts of Brazil, while Argentina continues to battle intensifying dryness that threatens late-planted corn and soybeans. Global traders remain focused on how these divergent patterns influence yield potential heading into March.

Crop Futures Wrap

Wheat:
Mar ’26 CBOT wheat closed at $5.59 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents. Argentine strike disruptions, export positioning and modest global stock tightening supported a strong rally despite comfortable structural supplies.

Corn:
Mar ’26 CBOT corn settled at $4.25 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents. Lower U.S. acreage projections and firm ethanol output were offset by rising ethanol stocks and steady global supply estimates.

Soybeans:
Mar ’26 CBOT soybeans closed at $11.41, up 7 1/2 cents. Record crush data, stronger soybean oil futures and supportive trade headlines outweighed rising global stocks and mixed Brazilian export projections.