Corn remains under pressure even after one of the largest recent US export deals, while soybean liquidation continues and wheat weakens as record-low weekly inspections and active Russian exports weigh on sentiment.

US grain markets open Tuesday, November 3, mostly lower. Dec ’26 corn is testing a fresh four-month low despite a 1.73 MMT sale to Mexico, wheat is weaker across all three classes, while Jan ’27 soybeans are marginally higher but the broader soybean complex remains under pressure. Fund liquidation, weak processing margins, a stronger US dollar and generally non-threatening South American weather continue to cap upside potential.

Corn Fails to Respond to a 1.73 MMT Mexico Sale

Dec ’26 corn is down 3 1/4 cents at $4.45/bu, reaching a fresh four-month low. The weakness is notable because USDA announced a private sale of 1.73 MMT of corn to Mexico on Monday, including 1.135 MMT for the current marketing year and 594,360 MT for 2027/28. The Morning Ag Outlook describes the transaction as the third-largest corn sale ever to Mexico.

The market’s inability to rally on such a large export sale highlights the depth of the current demand concerns. Corn export inspections improved to 884,766 MT in the week ending October 29, up 38.63% from the previous week, but still 48.32% below the same week last year. Marketing-year shipments stand at 10.676 MMT, down 13.21% year on year.

Ethanol Usage Adds Another Demand Concern

September corn use for ethanol reached 438.4 million bushels, only 0.65% above last year and down seasonally by 8.5% from the previous month. The Morning Outlook places the figure at the lower end of expectations and notes that monthly usage will need to average 474 million bushels to reach USDA’s current 5.650 billion bushel forecast.

That leaves corn needing stronger demand from either exports or domestic processing to create a more convincing bullish argument.

Harvest Rain Offers Only Temporary Corn Support

US corn harvest reached 74% complete as of November 1, advancing 14 percentage points during the week but remaining three points behind the five-year average. Widespread rain across the western Corn Belt and northern Midwest is expected to slow the remaining harvest in the short term.

The 6–10 day outlook, however, calls for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, which should allow fieldwork to resume and harvest to finish without major disruption. The weather therefore provides some nearby support but does not currently represent a major supply threat.

South American Weather Remains Comfortable

South American forecasts are still not threatening enough to generate significant weather premium. Rain this week is expected to favor southern Brazil, with scattered showers across Argentina and warmer conditions with scattered rainfall in west-central Brazil.

Brazilian soybean planting has reached 53%, ahead of last year’s 47% pace. The rapid progress reduces immediate planting risk and keeps speculative traders comfortable reducing long exposure.

Soybeans Stabilize, but Fund Liquidation Continues

Jan ’27 soybeans are up 1 cent at $12.17 3/4/bu, but the broader soybean complex remains weak. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $1.20 at $318.40, reaching a fresh 2 1/2-month low, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 33 points at 64.75, holding just above last week’s low at 64.50.

The combined managed-money long position across the soybean complex has fallen to approximately 373,000 contracts, down sharply from the recent record of 558,000 contracts. Speculative traders continue to reduce exposure as South American forecasts remain relatively benign.

This remains one of the most important bearish forces in the market: strong physical demand is being offset by persistent financial liquidation.

Crush Margins Fall to a Nine-Month Low

September soybean crush totaled 198.8 million bushels, down 5.16% from August and 2.99% below September 2025. The Morning Outlook rounds the figure to 199 million bushels and describes it as slightly below expectations.

Crush margins fell another $0.07 1/2 to $2.07 1/2/bu, the lowest in nine months. To reach USDA’s 2.780 billion bushel forecast, processing would need to average 235 million bushels per month from October through August.

Weak processing economics therefore remain a clear headwind for soybean meal and the broader complex.

Record-Low Soybean Oil Stocks Offer a Counterweight

Soybean oil stocks fell sharply to 1.457 billion pounds, down 14.08% from the previous month and 17.58% from last year. The level represents a record low for the dataset.

The Morning Outlook notes stocks at approximately 1.458 billion pounds, below expectations of 1.534 billion. This provides an important supportive element for soybean oil even as the contract trades lower early Tuesday.

China Keeps Soybean Demand Strong

USDA reported another private sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2026/27 on Monday. Weekly export inspections also remained strong at 2.445 MMT, more than double the same week last year, with China receiving 1.524 MMT.

Marketing-year soybean shipments have reached 12.18 MMT, up 56% year on year, while estimated Chinese purchases are near 19 MMT.

The key tension in soybeans remains unchanged: export demand is strong, but fund liquidation and weakening crush economics continue to prevent a sustained recovery.

Wheat Turns Lower as Export Inspections Collapse

Wheat is weaker across all three US classes. Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down 4 1/4 cents at $6.02 1/4/bu, Dec ’26 Kansas City is down 6 cents at $6.40, and Dec ’26 Minneapolis is down 2 1/2 cents at $6.23 1/4.

The most bearish demand signal is weekly export inspections. Only 75,413 MT of wheat were shipped in the week ending October 29, down 41.34% from the previous week and 78.54% from the same week last year. The volume was the lowest weekly total since the dataset began in 1983.

The extremely weak weekly number is particularly important because wheat remains dependent on stronger export demand to challenge the current bearish structure.

Wheat Conditions Are Weaker Than Expected

US winter wheat planting reached 83%, one percentage point below the five-year average. Emergence was 65%, matching normal.

Crop conditions were rated 44% good/excellent. While that was close to internal expectations in the Morning Outlook, it was well below the 50% average estimate in the Reuters poll. Rain in the southern Plains is expected to improve conditions before dormancy, limiting the immediate bullish impact of the weaker rating.

Russian Export Capacity Caps Wheat Rallies

IKAR estimates Russian wheat exports for 2026/27 at 39.5 MMT. The Morning Outlook notes that Russia shipping just over 3 MMT per month, alongside around 1 MMT from Ukraine, would put USDA’s current export forecasts of 40 MMT and 12.5 MMT respectively close to achievable levels.

This active Black Sea supply continues to limit upside potential in wheat, particularly while US demand remains weak.

Energy Rebounds but Dollar Strength Adds Pressure

Energy markets are firmer Tuesday morning. Spot WTI crude oil is up $0.80 at $97.25/barrel, RBOB gasoline is up $0.05/gallon and heating oil is up $0.10. The US dollar is moderately higher, while US equity markets are mixed.

Higher energy prices provide some support to biofuel-linked commodities, but the stronger dollar creates a less favorable environment for US export competitiveness.

Wheat Futures

Dec ’26 Chicago wheat is down 4 1/4 cents at $6.02 1/4/bu. Dec ’26 Kansas City wheat is down 6 cents at $6.40, while Dec ’26 Minneapolis is down 2 1/2 cents at $6.23 1/4. Record-low weekly US export inspections and active Black Sea export capacity are the main bearish drivers, while weaker-than-expected US crop ratings provide only limited support because southern Plains rainfall is expected to improve conditions.

Corn Futures

Dec ’26 corn is down 3 1/4 cents at $4.45/bu, trading at a fresh four-month low. The failure to rally after the 1.73 MMT Mexico sale highlights persistent demand concerns. Ethanol use remains below the pace required to meet USDA’s annual forecast, while harvest rain offers only temporary support.

Soybean Futures

Jan ’27 soybeans are up 1 cent at $12.17 3/4/bu. Dec ’26 soybean meal is down $1.20 at $318.40, while Dec ’26 soybean oil is down 33 points at 64.75. Strong exports and record-low soybean oil stocks provide support, but the combined managed-money long has fallen to 373,000 contracts, crush margins are at a nine-month low and South American weather remains non-threatening.