EUR/USD index went down to 1.1152. WTI crude oil increased to 42.78 USD/barrel.

After on Thursday's oil prices began relatively stable now they mark slight declines again. Raw material declined sharply last day due to continuing concerns about the sharp rise in shale production in the United States. Data shows that US shale producers have reached 9.35 million barrels last week, up by 8% compared to the same period last year. Although the rate of growth has shown signs of slowdown, the data has confirmed market fears that US producers have become more efficient and will maintain low prices.

After a prolonged decline the price of oil yesterday remained stable. However, this was not the reason why prices on commodity markets stabilized, including on the grain market. Data about US soybeans exports were disappointing. Chinese buyers ordered soybeans in large quantities from Brazil, but forgot the American one, which is now low in competitiveness. Indeed, soybeans export sales were 111,200 tonnes of an old crop at estimated 200,000-400,000 tonnes. Sales from the new crop were the minimum 3,800 tonnes, which is nothing like no sales.No one is looking for new crop soybeans from the US , and the crop will be great. So far, sales of soybeans from the new US crop are 3.44 million tonnes at 6.21 million tonnes a year earlier. However South America's soybeans crop was weak, but now it is not.

The lack of exports of corn and soybeans from the new crop lowers prices. Once they drop enoughsales will rise, but another large exporter will enter the same cycle.
The additional rainfall expected at the end of the week in the US corn belt will improve the condition of corn and soybeans.
Export sales of US corn were 528,800 tonnes + 124,000 tonnes. So far, export sales of US corn from new crop are  2.87 million tonnes (4.5).

For the two major export grains of the US, sales in the new 2017 - 2018 start very poorly. South America occupies low-priced markets. There is fierce competition throughout the season. From this we can be saved by poor crops in the US  or weak crops in the beginning of  2018 in South America. But until then, this scenario is expected.
In the United States, drought-prone areas are not declining, and this is not expected to happen soon.
The so-described situation for corn and soybeans is also depressing the wheat market and stopping its rise.

Yesterday, Egypt held an auction for the purchase of wheat. The auction is the third consecutive within 15 days. Two big quantities of wheat were purchased at the two previous auctions. This volume has fallen, but that does not mean that Egypt will be here with orders. Yesterday 175,000 tonnes of Romanian and Ukrainian wheat were purchased at FOB prices of 190.13 - 195.00 USD / tonne.

According to a forecast of the Egyptian authorities in the new season (starting in July), wheat imports into the country through state-owned companies will rise to 6.2 million tonnes. Typical imports are 5.5 million tonnes. Growth is to fill strategic stocks. According to the USDA forecast the total wheat imports into Egypt in the new season will be 12 million tonnes (+0.5).

Again, we should note that currency fluctuations will also play an important role in the new season. Now the Russian and Brazilian currencies are weaker than the US and this creates competitive advantages for their production. The Brazilian currency is at the lowest levels against the dollar since December 2016. The Russian currency also weakened as a result of falling oil prices. Last year the situation was just the opposite. Oil prices rose and the Russian ruble rose, and the Russians were hardly exporting their wheat. For now Russia remains the only major wheat producer without significant weather problems, something that is not  in the US, the EU, Ukraine, Australia. So Russia will be the strongest player on the market at the start of the new season.

The US is expected to have a better weather in the next two weeks. The crops are likely to be big and this makes the producers willing to sell. Separately large stockpiles create problems.
In Western Europe it is dry and hot, but obviously the loss of potential is already in the price of crops.

Wheat prices - yesterday wheat price in Chicago declined moderately. In the period June 9th - 15th, export sales of wheat from the United States are  542,881 tonnes, which is 45.4% more than last year and 17.3% more than last week. Wheat exports reached 717,849 tonnes. The biggest buyers were Japan and the Philippines.

Corn prices - yesterday corn futures in Chicago fell by 2.25 - 6 cents / bushel. Export sales of corn of old crops were 528,825 tonnes (-11.97% and -39.27%) + 124,000 tonnes of new crop. New US corn sales were 63.87% below last year's level. The export of corn during the week was 1,211,500 tonnes. The biggest buyers were Japan and Mexico. The authorities in China have sold only 120,924 tonnes of corn from the 1,288 million tonnes offered at the last auction. Argentina's IB increased its forecast for corn crops in the country to 47.5 million tonnes. The Buenos Aires grain exchange forecasts a crop of 39 million tonnes and  USDA - of 40 million tonnes. This is crop 2016 - 2017.

Soybeans prices - yesterday the price of soybeans in Chicago dropped significantly. Export sales of soybeans were 111,182 tonnes of old crop + 3,800 tonnes of new crop. The export was 296,100 tonnes. The biggest buyers were Indonesia and Bangladesh. Sales of soybeans meal were 86,600 tonnes + 45,600 tonnes and soybeans oil 13,300 tonnes + 4,100 tonnes. Argentina's health ministry has lowered its forecast for soybeans crops in the current season to 57 million tonnes from 58 million tonnes in the previous forecast.