Wheat

Chicago wheat futures for September 2025 opened Monday’s session at $5.04 ¾ per bushel, showing a modest rebound after ending last week lower. Kansas City hard red winter wheat also gained slightly, while Minneapolis spring wheat traded steady. The wheat market continues to feel the weight of harvest pressure and robust Russian supply, yet support comes from quality concerns in Europe, where excessive rains have raised doubts about protein levels, and from drought in southwestern Russia. USDA reported export commitments at 11.566 million metric tons, the largest for this week of the marketing year since 2013/14 and representing 49% of annual projections. Still, speculative positions remain heavily short, with Chicago traders expanding bearish bets to nearly 100,000 contracts, highlighting lingering pressure on the market despite export strength.

Corn

Corn futures opened at $3.88 ¼ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, maintaining last week’s rebound. The ProFarmer Crop Tour projected a record U.S. corn harvest at 16.204 billion bushels, with yields averaging 182.7 bushels per acre—below USDA’s forecast of 188.8 bpa but still historically strong. Brazil’s second corn crop is nearly harvested at 98%, while planting for the 2025/26 first crop has begun with 3.2% progress. In the U.S., speculative short positions were reduced by over 30,000 contracts, reflecting improving sentiment, while export demand gained traction with new tenders, including Taiwan seeking 65,000 metric tons. Despite optimism, disease pressures such as southern rust and northern blight across the Midwest are raising concerns that final yields may not fully meet lofty expectations.

Soybeans

Soybean futures for September 2025 began Monday at $10.36 ½ per bushel, extending gains from last week. Strong export sales continue to support prices, with USDA confirming new-crop commitments of 1.143 million tons—the largest weekly total since January. The ProFarmer Crop Tour estimated U.S. soybean yields at 53 bushels per acre, translating into 4.246 billion bushels of production, slightly below USDA’s latest outlook. Speculative funds flipped to a net long position for the first time in weeks, underlining renewed confidence in the market. Still, Brazil’s dominance in soybean exports and ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions weigh on long-term competitiveness. Meanwhile, volatility in soymeal and soyoil prices remains high, with the EPA’s recent decision to grant refinery exemptions from biofuel mandates adding further uncertainty to demand prospects.

Global Market Drivers

Drought across Ukraine continues to dominate headlines, with forecasters warning that winter rapeseed sowing—set between August 25 and September 10—faces severe risks due to depleted soil moisture. Precipitation across key regions has been only 30–60% of normal, with some areas receiving as little as 5–25% of seasonal rainfall. Analysts have already cut sunflower harvest estimates sharply, a development that will influence global vegetable oil and feed markets.

The ProFarmer Crop Tour added momentum to global trading sentiment, projecting record U.S. corn and soybean crops. However, widespread disease pressure, including tar spot, rusts, and sudden death syndrome, could trim yields. Traders are weighing these risks against otherwise favorable weather and robust planting conditions across much of the Midwest.

China–U.S. agricultural tensions escalated after Beijing criticized Washington’s protectionist measures, including restrictions on farmland purchases and tariffs on American exports. China noted that U.S. soybean exports to its market fell 51% in the first half of 2025, with Brazil continuing to dominate Chinese buying during the U.S. marketing season. The trade dispute adds uncertainty to U.S. export competitiveness at a crucial time.

In Brazil, consultancy AgResource projected soybean production at 176.5 million tons for 2025/26, a 3% increase, with corn output seen at 138.4 million tons. Farmers are preparing for planting, with corn’s second crop expected to account for over 110 million tons. Still, farm credit tightening and record loan defaults are slowing fertilizer purchases, highlighting financial stress despite strong production prospects.

Argentina also remained in focus, with recent frosts raising concerns for wheat crops. Meanwhile, Bunge booked another cargo of Argentine soybean meal for shipment to China, signaling cautious but growing trade activity after earlier disruptions diverted cargoes to Southeast Asia.

Policy shifts also influenced markets. The Trump administration’s EPA granted over 60 full refinery waivers from biofuel blending mandates, raising fears of weaker demand for corn and soy-based fuels. Conversely, Indonesia pressed the EU to drop biodiesel tariffs after a favorable WTO ruling, intensifying tensions over palm oil trade as both sides near a free trade deal.

Weather developments further shaped the outlook. The U.S. Midwest faces a cooldown with largely dry conditions, potentially limiting late-season crop development. In Canada, frost risks surfaced, while Europe expects beneficial rains that may aid corn and prepare soils for wheat sowing. Brazil and Argentina both face mixed conditions, with rainfall helping wheat but frosts posing localized threats.

Finally, logistics and livestock added layers of complexity. U.S. barge shipments along the Mississippi dropped to 667,000 tons last week from 853,000 tons, with soybean volumes down 36%. Meanwhile, U.S. cattle placements fell 6.1% year-on-year in July, and Brazil’s poultry exports are under pressure from avian flu embargoes, highlighting broader protein market instability that feeds back into grain demand.