EUR / USD index rose to 1.1177. WTI crude oil rose to 43.36 USD / barrel.

Oil prices rose by 1% on Monday, backed by a weak dollar. At the same time, increased drilling activity in the United States is fueling fears that global overcapacity will continue to dominate markets despite OPEC's efforts to curb output. According to a number of analysts, prices are rising because investors cover their short positions, but there are no fundamental news to support the upswing. Although oil prices have gone up from the 10-month bottom they are still 13% lower than in late May, when OPEC and several non-cartels agreed to extend the shrinking deal. Supply in the United States, however, counteracts these efforts. According to Baker Hughes oil service company data, oil platforms in the United States increased by 11 in the week ended 23th June. Thus their total number is 758, the highest level since April 2014.

SG analysts believe the spring wheat rally has gone far enough at a two-year high of 6.75 USD / bushel. Against the price of soft red wheat in Chicago, the price of spring wheat is quite high. Now the difference between the two sorts is 2.16 USD / bushel. Analysts keep their positive view of the price of wheat over the next 12 to 18 months. Comments came when SG cut its forecast for US wheat yield to 40 bushels / acre from 46.6 bushels / acre. The yield is 7.2 bushels / acre below last year's level and is the weakest for the past decade. Spring wheat status in the US is at its lowest level since 1995 until now.The US spring wheat stocks / consumption ratio will drop to 23.9% in the new season from 36% in 2016-2017. Stocks of spring wheat amounting to 10.9 million tonnes will be very weak. In 2011 the yield of spring wheat was less than 40 bushels / acre - the only time for the last decade. Then the premium for soft wheat was 1.35 USD / bushel at the beginning of the season, rising to 3.0 USD / bushel and ending the season with a difference of 2.5 USD / bushel. Another factor determining the price of spring wheat are the stocks in Canada. While 6 years ago US stocks were the same as the current ones, those in Canada are lower.

The dry and hot weather in the United States and Europe gives analysts a reason to forecast a fall in wheat crops in the world for the first time in the last five seasons. We are definitely in a moment of reflection on what is actually the real state of the wheat market in the world. We are about to awaken chronic concerns about the supply of wheat and hence to achieve higher prices. This spring in the world was the second hottest since the record high 2016. Here's what the world's largest wheat producers now look like:

- US - Production will be less than last year - less land and yields. First tests of durum wheat show lower protein content. In North Dakota, the wheat is 30 centimeters high, and the yield can shrink to 20 bushels / acre at a normal 40-50. The crop is not lost, but there will be a serious downturn. In Canada, on the contrary, some areas are too damp, others too wet, and many spring crops are developing more slowly than usual.

- In Europe the warm wave threatens production. The market has not yet fully taken into account this climate risk. Analysts are expected to quickly lower their crop forecasts and, if they have not done so, it is because it is difficult to make judgments. Now the wheat crop in France is expected to be around 35 million tonnes, but reductions are possible. The yield of common wheat in France has been reduced from 6.77 tonnes / ha to 6.17 tonnes / ha. The yield for Italy is reduced by 0.44 tonnes / ha to 5.37 tonnes / ha and for Spain the reduction is 0.31 tonnes / ha to 2.66 tonnes / ha.

- Australia - due to drought, wheat crops are expected to reach 24.1 million tonnes at 35.1 million tonnes in the previous season.
- China - USDA predicts that wheat stocks in China will increase by 16% to 128 million tonnes. However, China will not export wheat to the world market. If the wheat stocks in China are removed from the world, the comfortable pillow is shrinking.
- Argentina - here farmers suffer from a lot of moisture. Part of the areas planted for wheat will remain intact precisely because of this. Still, crop growth is expected - sequential.

- Black Sea Region - Russia's poles are in good condition due to precipitation and cool weather. In Ukraine, however, they are damaged by drought. However, the region will be the world's cheapest wheat supplier. Average wheat yield in Ukraine decreases by 0.37 tonnes / ha to 3.91 tonnes / ha at 4.21 tonnes / ha in 2016.

- In 1983 US corn areas were 60.2 million acres and soybeans 63.8 million acres. From then until now the areas with corn have been over those with soybeans. Now the situation may change and soybeans is more than corn. This will be the understanding of the USDA report. The forecasts are 89.9 million acres with corn and 89.75 million acres with soybeans. Thus, the crop of corn will reach 353 million tonnes at an average yield of 168 bushels / acre, and at 165 bushels / acre - 347 million tonnes. The second option is much more interesting and exciting. Soybeans production can reach 116-117 million tonnes at a yield of 48 bushels / acre and 112 million tonnes at a yield of 46 bushels / acre.

Wheat is almost clear - there will be a potential for price growth, but it will be in direct contact with corn. It remains July, where rainfall will solve everything in corn and soybeans.

Wheat price - yesterday wheat price in Chicago dropped more seriously. Winter wheat in the United States is harvested at 41% of the areas at 28% a week earlier and 39% on average over the past five years. In a good and excellent condition of spring wheat are 40% of the areas,at 41% last week and 72% a year earlier. Weekly US wheat exports are at 629,070 tonnes, which is 15.01% more than last week and 22.55% more than last year. It is expected that the area of ​​wheat in the US will be 46 million acres, incl. winter wheat 32.83 million acres and spring wheat 11.2 million acres. .

Soybean price - yesterday soybean futures price rose in Chicago by 2 - 3.5 cents / bushel. Weekly export controls of US soybeans are at the level of 315,099 tonnes (+ 14.39% and + 6.52%). In good and excellent condition are 66% of the soybeans areas (67% and 72%). Soil areas in the US are expected to be 89.75 million acres (88,466 - 91.0).

Corn price - yesterday the price of corn futures rose by 1.25 - 2.75 cents / bushel. Weekly export controls of corn are at 965,608 tonnes, which is 33.47% lower than last year. In good and excellent condition in the United States are  67% of the areas (67% and 74%). Corn areas in the US are expected to be 89,903 million acres. Ukraine cut its forecast for corn crops for the season from 28 million tonnes to 25.6 million tonnes. This is an important step to calm the market and raise the price of this culture in the Black Sea region. Given the precipitation forecasts for the next 10 days, we can expect this fall to be the last one. In Brazil 9.3% of the corn is harvested, at 12.5% ​​a year earlier.