EUR/USD index rose to 1.1439. WTI crude oil increased to 44.87 USD/barrel.

Oil prices rose again on Thursday reaching its highest levels since June 19th, following the decline in the US output. However, ongoing concerns about global market saturation still depend on the raw material. The US Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil stocks rose by 118,000 barrels last week and weekly production dropped by 100,000 barrels to 9.3 million barrels per day. This is the largest decline in weekly production since July 2016.

Yesterday spring wheat prices in Chicago rose by 7% after Canada raised its concerns about the wheat supplies. The areas of wheat in the country were lowered at the expense of rapeseed. With canola 9.22 million hectares are sown and with wheat 9.02 million hectares. In the previous forecast, canola areas were 8.98 million hectares and wheat 9.19 million hectares. For the first time in history canola areas in Canada are more than wheat. In Canada with spring wheat, less areas were planted than farmers' intentions were in March. Canada offers high-quality spring wheat on the world market, which this year will be in deficit. The US supply situation is similar.

The situation in the northern states of the United States is not improving but  getting worse. Over the next 10 days, forecasts show that rainfall will not occur and temperatures will rise to over 30 degrees. In North Dakota, over 50% of the US wheat is produced. Areas with drought in the state increased in the last week by 7% to 46.9%. In South Dakota, the growth of these areas is 11.1% to 31.4%, and Montana by 12.8% to 25.2%. Groundwater is at a very low level too - the lowest since at least 2008 until now, i.e. below the level of big drought in 2012. The forecast for the next week does not show rainfall, i.e. the drought will deepen.

Canada produces 20.6 million tonnes of spring wheat per year, and the US 15.7 million tonnes. So it emerges that Canada is the most important producer for the global wheat balance. Canola areas in Canada are larger than previous estimates. Perhaps the crop will be better. Thus, the pressure on the oil segment will increase.

In the US corn belt temperatures are kept below +30 degrees, but rainfall over the next 10 days is not expected. Here there is definitely moisture in the soil and it is important until when it will be enough if we don't have precipitation. Growth of crops is slower than last year, as the risk of drought in this period has increased.
In the next 10 days, temperatures in Western Europe will be below +30 degrees, but with no rainfall . Such a visible improvement in the condition of crops from all crops is not expected, just the deterioration will slow down.

In Ukraine the temperatures will move around +30 degrees, but rainfall will barely fall. In Russia - in the southern parts - heat without rainfall, in the central parts - cool with minimum rainfall. In China it remains hot, but with precipitation in places that can help corn.
Wheat has a strong impulse to increase its price. However, for a more substantial result, corn must also contribute to this process.
Yesterday, IGC published its June report on the Global Balance of Grains and Oils. More important data from it :

Global grain production in the world has fallen by 4 million tonnes compared to the May report to 2,049 billion tonnes, grain consumption in the world has fallen by 2 million tonnes to 2.084 billion tonnes and stocks increased by 1 million tonnes to 480 million tonnes.
- Wheat - the crop is reduced by 1 million tonnes to 735 million tonnes, consumption decreases by 3 million tonnes to 735 million tonnes and stocks are increasing by 2 million tonnes to 241 million tonnes.
- Corn - the crop was reduced by 1 million tonnes to 1.025 billion tonnes, consumption increased by 1 million tonnes to 1.055 billion tonnes, and stocks increased by 2 million tonnes to 199 million tonnes.

- Soybeans - production remains unchanged at 348 million tonnes, consumption rises by 1 million tonnes to 352 million tonnes, and stocks are growing by 2 million tonnes to 41 million tonnes.
In general, no major changes. We will wait for these in the next two reports.

Corn price – yesterday corn futures in Chicago rose by 2 - 3.75 cents / bushel. Iowa's rain fell, but the price of the culture has risen. On June 16th-22th, US export sales of US corn were 316,200 tonnes of old crop (-40.21% from last week and -87.23% from last year) + 68,435 tonnes of new crop. The export of corn during the week was 1,020,800 tonnes. The biggest buyers were Mexico and Japan. Canada's Bureau of Statistics shows that the corn areas in the country in 2017 will be 1.447 million hectares, down by 0.07 million hectares since April. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the corn is harvested on 51% of the area.

Wheat price– yesterday wheat futures in Chicago rose by 19 to 23 cents / bushel. Exports of wheat from the United States are at 492,100 tonnes (-9.3% and -23.7%). Exports reached 750,782 tonnes. The largest buyers were Mexico and Indonesia..

Soybeans price–  yesterday soybean futures in Chicago rose by 1.5 - 3.5 cents / bushel. Export sales of US soybeans are 312,400 tonnes (+ 181% and -57.2%) + 2,000 tonnes. The export reaches 344,200 tonnes. The biggest buyers were Bangladesh and the Netherlands. Sales of soybeans meal were 38,000 tonnes at 21,400 tonnes and soybean oil 12,600 tonnes. Soybeans areas in Canada in 2017 will be 2.94 million hectares.

Certainly, export sales of corn and soybeans from the new crops are very weak. South America is now suppressing all other exporters. Problems begin to emerge very seriously.