EUR / USD fell to 1.1374. WTI crude oil  rose to 47.04 USD / barrel.

Oil prices rose eighth consecutive session on Monday. In the past week, raw material prices posted their biggest weekly growth since mid-May. The appreciation was largely backed by signs of a drop in drilling activity in the United States. For the week, Brent rose by $ 3.23 (6.8%), and since the beginning of the year, this oil has declined by about 14.2%. On Friday, Baker Hughes, the oil services company, said there was a drop in the number of oil platforms in the US by 2 to 756. This is only the second time this year when declines are reported. Previously, the number had risen 23 consecutive weeks.Last week, there was also data on US oil production, for a drop of  100,000 barrels per day to 9.25 million barrels in the week ending June 23. This is the largest decline in weekly output since July 2016.

Yesterday, the price of soft wheat in Chicago rose for the third time in a row with large margins of up to two years peak. The price of spring wheat marks the highest values since 2013 until now. These levels were possible due to the dry weather in many major grain-growing regions of the world and the prospect to remain so at least for the next 10 days.

Yesterday in Minneapolis, spring wheat rose by 5.7% to 8.16 USD / bushel, the highest level since May 2016. In Kansas City, durum red winter wheat is rising for a second consecutive session, yesterday's growth was + 5.7% to 5.59 USD / bushel - the highest level since July 2015. Additional market support was the USDA announcement for export sales of 70,000 tonnes of durum, red, winter wheat and 70,000 tonnes of soft white wheat. This is happening against the background of high prices at the moment.
Yesterday in Paris, the wheat price rose by + 1.8% to 185 EUS / tonne, which is the highest level in the last 20 months. In London, wheat with delivery in November rose by 1.2 percent to 151.25 pounds per tonne and the psychological level of 150 pounds per tonne had already passed.

It has to be stressed that price increases in the US are not just about the problems in the country. Major drought is reported as a price driver in many regions of the world.

In Australia wheat crops will drop more than the initial expectations due to the lack of precipitation. Australia's National Bank predicts a crop of 23.3 million tonnes of wheat from 2017 to 2018. In 2016 - 2017 the crop was at a record level of 35.1 million tonnes. The forecast is the lowest compared to other analysts and has been the bottom for the past five years. Overall, the situation is estimated to be very dry at the beginning of winter. With more rainfall, only East Australia can boast. In June, rainfall in Western Australia is only 23% of the average for many years back. In Western Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia rainfall is also below normal.The probability of new declines is high given the weather forecasts in the coming weeks. Now farmers do not sell their wheat in anticipation of higher prices.

In the northern states of the United States, drought is also widespread and it spreads to Canada. So the main region in the world that produces quality spring wheat will significantly reduce crops. Dry and warm will be the weather in the US corn belt. This will further exacerbate the corn and soybeans market.

In Europe the last precipitation did not significantly improve the condition of the crops. The latest storms and hailstorms, on the contrary, caused considerable damage . In the following days rainfall is not expected in the western and central parts of the continent, so the moisture deficiency remains.
In Ukraine, too, it does not rain. Analysts expect a 15 to 20 % decline in grain crops in the country, or 9.5 - 12.6 million tonnes. In the central parts of Russia for the first time we witness a natural phenomenon - cyclone depression. It is expected that this summer there will be unusual. Temperatures will remain low, which will affect all crops.

China is also affected by very high temperatures.
So far only in South America, the situation is not critical. Exactly in this region there are huge stocks of corn and soybeans, and low prices for realization. For this reason, farmers do not sell but wait for deterioration in other parts of the world. This time they can expect a significant result.
Yesterday, corn and soybeans rose in Chicago together with the wheat. The dry weather forecast in the central parts of the US also influenced this result.

These were the factors. Now a realistic view. There are also problems in many places around the world. This raises prices in recent days. But what happens to stocks? Stocks of all crops remain large. Particularly strong it is seen in South America where farmers do not sell at low prices. There, any growth in prices will be associated with higher sales and, respectively, stopping the upward trend. There are many and strong factors to keep up with price increases with rising sales that seem to be fueled by almost unlimited stocks. What to expect then?Yes, there is nothing but price growth. However, the FOB US wheat may not be USD 20 / tonne more expensive than the Black Sea's and this is a sustainable situation over a long period of time. Or Black Sea wheat is rising, or the US cheaper, or both are moving in parallel at a parity price. They all have to export, otherwise they will ever follow changes in the market. The current growth in Chicago will stop, there will be a correction in decline, which may be a stable position for the coming months.

Let's see in the coming days what damage will be caused from rainfall and hailstorms in the last two days. I think damage will not be small and it will be a potential loss of hundreds of thousands of tonnes.

Wheat price – on Monday, wheat price in Chicago continued to rise sharply. In Chicago the growth was by 22 - 29 cents / bushel. Weekly US export controls for wheat are at 505,031 tonnes. This is 23.46% less than the previous week and 11.59% less than last year. It is expected that 37-38% of spring wheat in the United States will be in good and excellent condition.

Soybeans price - soybeans futures ended with a gain of 22.5 - 25 cents / bushel. Weekly export controls of US soybeans are at 266,386 tonnes (-18.66% and + 37.12%). The USDA reported export sales of 120,650 tonnes of soybeans meal to Mexico, including China. 92,540 tonnes of crop 2017 - 201 and 28,110 tonnes of  2018-2019. The condition of soybeans in the US is expected to be stable. Analysts predict that 4.31 million tonnes of soybean were processed in the US in May.

Corn price - yesterday in Chicago, the price of corn rose by 7 - 7.5 cents / bushel after the serious aid from thewheat. Export controls of US corn are at 1,094 million tonnes (+ 12.86% and -8.52%). USDA reported export sales of 114,300 tons of corn to Mexico, incl. 22,860 tonnes from crop 2017 - 2018 years and 91,440 tonnes from 2018 to 2019. The condition of corn crops in the US is expected to be stable. In Brazil, 16.2% of the areas with second corn crops (36.7% a year earlier) are harvested.

This is so !!! You have not seen this  - did you? I hope that after the stabilization of the markets, prices will really be at good for the farmers' levels.