EUR/USD index decreased to 1.1356. WTI crude oil went up to 47.14 USD/barrel.

Oil prices remained stable on Tuesday and seem to be pausing after eight consecutive sessions. Many traders closed their positions before the US National Holiday.
Yesterday, US markets remained closed due to the national holiday of the United States. Traders have turned their attention east to Russia, where production prices are rising much slower than the US. Russia retains its huge export potential in the new season, given the comparatively good expected crop. Export prices in the Black Sea region rose in the past week, but for wheat it was with the relatively modest USD 2.50 / tonne to 188 USD / tonne.

SovEkon bet on export prices in July - August from 184 to 187 USD / tonne for Russian wheat, which are close to those from last week, 183 - 186 USD / tonne. Growth is rather limited and does not correspond to the rapid rise in futures quotations in the last week.

SovEkon analysts expect a minimal rise in export prices as a result of the rally in other markets. However, other observers expect a decline in the already growing competitive prices due to large wheat stocks in the Black Sea region. Now the Black Sea wheat remains the most competitive in the world and much ahead of others. There are three options, but it is likely that the Black Sea prices will rise slightly and competitors will drop more significantly and the market will again balance. It is interesting what parameters will have the new Russian wheat crop. The country keeps cool even cold for this season weather.

In France the weather conditions are normalized, no precipitation and the harvest will continue. It happened that after the storms in Europe the quality of European wheat has deteriorated considerably. This is another argument for reducing the global supply of quality wheat in the new season.

Yesterday rapeseed in Paris rose by 0.8% to its highest value for almost two months - 369 EUR / tonne. Warm weather perspectives in the Midwest of the United States are distracting the attention from rapeseed forecasts. The dry weather in the world's two largest rapeseed producers - Canada and Australia - creates excellent conditions for growth in prices. For the EU, the crop forecast has been reduced in the recent days by 0.2 million tonnes to 21.12 million tonnes. Losses in the last month are reported in France and the central parts of the continent. The recent rainfall has seriously worsened the perspectives for the crop in Europe.

In the new season Spain will support the European market after boosting imports of soft wheat by 43 % to 5.6 million tonnes, which will be 450,000 tonnes more than the previous forecast and 1.8 million tonnes more than 2016-2017 . Spain's soft wheat crop will reach 4.15 million tonnes, down by 800,000 tonnes from the previous forecast and 38% less than the crop in 2016. Agrofinmarket raised its forecast for barley imports in Spain by 100,000 tonnes to 725,000 tonnes and corn with 200,000 tonnes to 6.88 million tonnes, which is 22% more than last year.

Consumers in China report that at the current grain prices in the country it is more profitable to consume more barley and sorghum instead of corn. In the first five months of the year, barley imports to China grew by 128 % to 3.89 million tonnes. At the same time, imports of corn dropped to 352,159 tonnes (-88%) and DDGS to 302,809 tonnes (-77%). China's corn prices are also under pressure for growth due to the dry conditions in the main production area - the northeastern parts of the country. There will be rainfall this week and the situation will change. The situation will improve for corn and for soybeans. In China the price of soybeans is dictated by international markets, while the price of corn is domestic and is largely determined by the government.

In the recent days Malaysian palm oil prices have risen, but this is not a steady move due to the weak export of production from the country, and production is growing very steadily.

In summary - The market remains unbalanced after the recent changes in stock and FOB prices. Still, there is no exact idea of  the ​​wheat crops, and what about corn. There are and will be reductions, but how much will  determine the precipitation  in July. I would point out that there can not be too big differences between exporters of similar products. Demand will quickly equalize prices, but it is important at what level. For now, I have the opinion that wheat has the potential to increase its price, but not too much and the increase itself will be smooth.