Opening Prices: Monday Morning Snapshot from Chicago

Wheat (September 2025 Contract)

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures opened the week at $5.38¼ per bushel, down 3¼ cents. The market carried over Friday’s bearish momentum, reflecting persistent selling pressure across the wheat complex. Soft Red Winter (SRW), Hard Red Winter (HRW), and Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat markets all registered weekly and monthly declines, driven by mixed crop quality and easing concerns about U.S. export competitiveness.

Corn (September 2025 Contract)

CBOT corn futures started the day at $3.99½ per bushel, slipping by 2¼ cents. Traders responded to mixed weather conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt and the announcement of lower Argentine export tariffs. Despite moderate gains in some wholesale regions of Brazil, global corn fundamentals remain under pressure from abundant supplies and delayed export recovery.

Soybeans (August 2025 Contract)

Soybean futures were priced at $9.98¾ per bushel, declining by 5½ cents at the open. Soyoil and soymeal also faced losses despite stronger export data. The Argentine government’s dramatic tax reductions on soybean-related products added fresh volatility, with expectations of increased South American competitiveness.

Global Market Movers and Developments

Argentina Drops Soy and Corn Export Taxes to Boost Farm Revenues

In a major shakeup for global grain trade, Argentine President Javier Milei announced sweeping tariff cuts on agricultural exports. Export taxes on soybeans fell to 26% (from 33%), soymeal and soyoil to 24.5% (from 31%), and corn to 9.5% (from 12%). The reductions are part of Milei’s free-market reforms and a bid to support farmers struggling under low global commodity prices. Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soymeal and oil, and the move could increase South American competitiveness while redrawing global sourcing patterns for key buyers.

EU–U.S. Trade Pact Injects Optimism into Transatlantic Commerce

The U.S. and the EU finalized the framework of a long-anticipated trade deal over the weekend. The agreement includes zero tariffs on aircraft, selected chemicals, ag products, and semiconductor equipment. Agricultural components, although only partially disclosed, are expected to benefit from lower duties, especially on oilseeds and raw materials. A key point includes $750 billion in strategic EU purchases of American oil, gas, and chips. This shift in trade dynamics could favor U.S. grain exporters in the medium term, particularly amid ongoing reshuffles in global trade alliances.

Ukraine’s Grain Output Plunges by 45% Year-on-Year

Ukraine’s grain harvest has reached just 10.3 million tons, a staggering 45% below the 19 million tons recorded by the same point last year. The collapse in production stems from reduced planted area, adverse weather, and ongoing war-related disruptions. Wheat output sits at 7.1 million tons, half of last year’s level. With only 29% of fields harvested, the crisis raises alarm about Ukraine’s ability to meet export commitments, especially as global buyers eye alternative sources.

Weather Turns More Supportive for U.S. Corn and Soy Crops

Weather across key U.S. grain belts shows a pattern of moderation. The Midwest and Northern Plains are benefiting from scattered showers, which help alleviate earlier dryness and support soil moisture during critical development stages. However, extreme heat persists across Southern regions, with some crop stress reported. Despite the challenging conditions, analysts maintain a broadly favorable outlook for U.S. corn and soybeans heading into August.

Brazil’s Corn Supply Mixed by Region, Soybean Freight Prices Rise Sharply

In Brazil, soybean demand is strong both domestically and abroad, yet soaring freight rates are eroding farm gate margins. Transport from Paraná to port Paranaguá now costs over BRL 200/ton, a 20% increase from last month. In corn, prices are rising in São Paulo where harvests lag, while supply pressure from Central-West Brazil continues to weigh on national prices. The CEPEA index shows a 4% decline in July corn prices, even though late-month prices have ticked up slightly.

China Aims to Boost Domestic Ag Consumption

China’s Ministry of Agriculture released a new plan to stimulate domestic consumption of agricultural goods, with an emphasis on green and high-quality products. While details are limited, this signals a potential uptick in grain and oilseed demand from the world’s top importer. Markets are watching closely for how this may influence upcoming tenders and import patterns, particularly for soybeans and vegetable oils.

Malaysian Palm Oil Exports Expected to Recover in H2 2025

Despite a 7.7% drop in palm oil exports during the first half of the year, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) forecasts a rebound in H2 2025. Key drivers include festival-related demand from India, improved pricing, and reduced import duties. Still, policy shifts in India—like increased duties on crude palm oil—are dampening palm’s competitive edge versus soy and sunflower oils. Nonetheless, Malaysia’s share of Indian palm oil imports has risen to 35% in H1 2025 from 30% in 2024.

Improving Conditions for Australian Wheat Crop

A USDA attaché in Canberra reports improved weather and forecasts a bounce-back in wheat output. Widespread July rains have boosted soil moisture and outlooks across southern Australia. Wheat exports are projected to increase in 2025–26, thanks to higher ending stocks and better planting conditions. Barley exports, however, are expected to decline due to tighter supply from aggressive sales earlier in the year.