The tension about the hurricanes in the US calms down

On Monday wheat and soybeans prices in Chicago went down, and corn remained stable. In Paris all prices declined led by the rapeseed.

EUR/USD index went down to 1.1968. WTI crude oil declined to 48.11 USD/barrel.

Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih has agreed with his colleagues from Venezuela and Kazakhstan to leave all opportunities open to rebalancing the global oil markets, including a possible extension of the quota deal after March. Al-Falih has agreed in separate talks with ministers in the Kazakh capital, Astana, that OPEC's moves and other leading oil producers such as Kazakhstan have contributed to better market stability and rebalancing demand and supply, Saudi Energy Ministry .

Hurricane Irma advances in the United States, but its intensity is weakening and is already a tropical storm. This gives grounds for lowering the premium for some crops that are most affected by it - cotton and orange juice.

The September USDA report will be released today. The market expects the areas with soybeans in the US to be announced at 88.68 million acres, yield 48.8 bushels / acre, and the crop 117.7 million tonnes. The initial stocks in 2017 - 2018 are expected to be 10.1 million tonnes and the ending stocks 12.0 million tonnes. For corn the area is expected to be 88.428 million acres, yield 168.2 bushels / acre, the crop 356.5 million tonnes, the initial stocks 59.4 million tonnes and the ending stocks 55.4 million tonnes. Analysts are more confident in corn yields than soybeans. We are in a season when US soybeans stocks rise to a high value. Corn stocks decrease, but their level is quite high.

The USDA reported export sales of 352,000 tonnes of soybean to an unknown buyer. Thus, the pace of sales of the new crop is slowly improving.
Australia lowered its forecast for the canola crop. In addition, soybeans oil has been supported by the rising palm oil. Palm oil stocks in Malaysia are expected to decline on a monthly basis.

The data from Australia indicate that wheat crop in the country during the season will be at ten-year bottom, and the crop of canola at a seven-year-old bottom. Reduction is due to the drought and the early crop freeze. Abares cut its forecast for wheat crops by 2.58 million tons to 21.61 million tons, which is the lowest level since 2008-2009. until the harvest was 21.42 million tonnes. Canola crop was reduced by 564,000 tonnes to 2.75 million tonnes, which is the lowest level from 2010-2011 until now. Chickpeas, lentils and oats were also reduced. The exact forecasts are the following: wheat 21,614 million tonnes (-2,579 million tonnes compared to the previous forecast and -13,395 million tonnes compared to the previous season), barley 8,009 million tonnes (-0,103 and -5,405), canola 2,753 million tonnes (- 0.564 and -1.382), oats 1.033 million tonnes (-0.128 and -0.840), lenticles 0.419 million tonnes (-0.111 and -0.411).In June, rainfall in Australia was below normal and very variable in July and August. In the case of insufficient rainfall, the forecasts may fall again. Despite the many negative news, the first wheat crops in Queensland show promising results.

The comments on the new Russian wheat crop continue. Last year the export of wheat from Russia increased by 7%. Still, as a balance of the news from Russia, there are declines in Australia and Argentina and the strong demand for quality wheat in the world. According to various figures, the export price of Russian wheat rose by 2 to 3.5 USD / tonne to 183-184 USD / tonne in the past week. During the week, the Russian ruble rose 0.4 % against the US dollar. Analysts believe that this reduces the competitiveness of exports.

Palm oil futures rose to five months peek after the stocks of the product in Malaysia rose less than expected after the strong exports. At the end of August, palm oil stocks in Malaysia reached 1.94 million tonnes, an increase of 157,000 tonnes in the month and the highest level in the last 18 months. Forecasts indicated stocks of 2 million tonnes. In August, production declined by 0.9% to 1.83 million tonnes. The fall is unusual for this time of the year, and expectations are for growth until September - October. This is the first drop in production in the last five months. Exports of the product grew by 90,000 tonnes to 1.49 million tonnes, with the expected 1.42 million tonnes.During the first 10 days of September, exports continued to grow, with growth rates varying by 6.9 - 9.3%. The debate is on the palm oil and whether production growth will be big enough to reverse the price trend.

 

 CBOT (Chicago)         

  USD/mt

   +/-

Wheat 12.2017

 159.69

 -1.10

Corn 12.2017

 140.70

 +0.24

Soybeans 11.2017

 352.74

 -0.73

Soybeans meal 12.2017

 334.66

 -1.76

 EURONEXT (Paris)

 EUR/mt  

  +/-

Wheat 12.2017

 159.00

 -0.50

Corn 11.2017

 157.25

 -1.25

Rapeseed 12.2017

 361.00

 -2.50

Rapeseed meal 12.2017

 185.00

 -4.00

 

Yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago fell by 0.5 - 2 cents / bushel. Weekly US soybeans export controls are at 1.11 million tonnes (+ 55.61% compared to last week and + 16.62% over last year). In  good and excellent condition in the United States are 60% of the soybeans at 61% a week earlier. Analysts expect the global soybeans stocks to rise to 97.2 million tonnes.
Yesterday wheat futures in Chicago fell to 7 cents / bushel. Weekly US export wheat exports are at 446,957 tonnes (+ 53.74% and -39.93%). In the United States, 95% of the areas of spring wheat are harvested. Already sown are 5% of the new winter wheat crop.

Yesterday corn futures in Chicago remained stable. In the United States, 5% of the corn areas is harvested. In good and excellent condition are 61% of the crops (61%). Weekly export controls for US corn are at 662,173 tonnes (-19% and -30.62%). The USDA is expected to lower global stocks of corn in the new season by 3 million tonnes to 197.8 million tonnes.