EUR/USD index went down to 1.1873. WTI crude oil rose to 49.24 USD/barrel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for the global oil demand in 2017 by 100,000 barrels per day to a 2-year high of 97.7 million barrels. This is mentioned in the agency's report for September. The IEA expects oil demand in the world this year to grow by 1.6 million barrels a day compared to last year. This is 100,000 barrels a day more than its August forecast. The agency also raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2018 by 100,000 barrels per day to 99.1 million barrels a day, with forecasts for demand growth next year increasing to the same volume to 1.4 million barrels per day.

The appreciation of the US dollar worsens the outlook for US exports. It is now very difficult to find positive news about corn prices as the balances are too big and the export markets weak. As for  soybeans the news is different. China is accelerating the purchases  while at the same time farmers in North and South America keep sales at low prices. In South America the weather is disturbing as the drought slows the sowing of soybeans in some major producing states. We will have bigger supplies from the US, which is not a problem because there is a lot of soybeans there. The drought in Brazil also hinders the sowing of the first corn crop.

Warm weather in the US helps with the development of the late crops. Rainfall is also expected. In Argentina rainfall is more than necessary and creates a number of difficulties, but rainfall in Australia and Ukraine is lacking. Now the situation in Brazil is interesting. There may be significant changes in the crop forecasts. The drought in Brazil is expected to continue next week. Now the crops are being sown and there are still no total damages, but the risks are growing.

In the US the harvesting of corn began. The first results for the yields do not meet the USDA's expectations. Many analysts continue to doubt the exact data on average yields of corn and soybeans. It is now clear that the number of pods in the soybeans and corn cobs is less than last year. To achieve this soybeans yield in the US, grains need to be 4% heavier than the 2016 record high, which is difficult to be achieved.

Wheat exports from the US are now rising and can lead to much higher levels than the USDA forecast. This is related to the logistical problems faced by Russia's ambitious export program. Forecast for Russian exports of 32.5 million tonnes is 17% more than the exports in 2016 - 2017, and 53% above the average for the past five years. Analysts do not believe that Russia will be able to reach these indicators, especially if it wants to keep exports of barley around 10 million tonnes.

France also has an optimistic forecast for wheat exports, with export outside the EU rising more than twice to 10.2 million tonnes, despite the Russian attitudes to seize the markets. Exports of soft wheat are expected at 18.16 million tonnes, up by 60.1% from the previous season, but 12% less than the record set in 2015-2016.

For EU countries, 7.85 million tonnes of wheat can be delivered  (+ 25.4% compared to the previous year) and for third countries 10.2 million tonnes (+ 105.2%) . Exports of feed barley reach 6.79 million tonnes (+ 28.6%), which is 8% below the record in 2015-2016. For EU countries, 3.275 million tonnes of barley (+ 12.6%) were delivered and 3.5 million tonnes (+ 48.4%) for third countries.
Everyone has the ambition to sell, to sell much. For now, however, buyers are not as active to take all optimistic export forecasts.

Yesterday soybeans futures in Chicago rose by 5.5 - 10 cents / bushel. USDA announced a private export sale of 167,370 tonnes of soybeans to Mexico from the new crop. Export sales of US soybeans are expected to reach 1-1.3 million tonnes in the past week, soybeans meal 50,000-400,000 tonnes, and soybeans oil 0-40,000 tonnes. It is estimated that the US soybeans processed in August will reach 3.74 million tonnes.

Yesterday wheat futures in Chicago rose by up to 3 cents / bushel. Export sales of wheat from the US will be 350,000 - 550,000 tonnes. There is information from Ukraine that so far 8.25% of the projected 61 million acres are sown with winter wheat crop 2018.

Yesterday in Chicago corn futures remained unchanged. In the past week, ethanol production in the United States decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 1,047 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol increased by 16,000 barrels to 21,132 million barrels. Export sales of US corn is  expected to be between 0.8 and 1.1 million tonnes. China plans to start using E10 petrol by 2020. Now the mixing is only 1% ethanol in gasoline.