Wheat

Chicago wheat futures for September 2025 opened Tuesday’s session at $5.06 ¾ per bushel, marking a slight increase after Monday’s modest gains. Kansas City hard red winter wheat also strengthened, while Minneapolis spring wheat weakened. The U.S. harvest is nearly complete—98% of winter wheat and 53% of spring wheat have been cut, just below the five-year average. Crop ratings slipped slightly, with only 49% rated good-to-excellent. Strong export demand continues—USDA reported weekly shipments of 946,240 tons, more than double the previous week and 71% higher than last year, led by Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea. Despite robust exports, the market remains under pressure from Russian supply, as IKAR raised its harvest forecast to 86 million tons and exports to 43 million, underscoring Russia’s dominant position in global wheat trade.

Corn

Corn futures began Tuesday at $3.89 ¼ per bushel for the September 2025 contract, holding steady from Monday. U.S. crop conditions remain strong—44% of fields are dented, and 7% are already mature, both in line with historical averages. Seventy-one percent of fields are rated good-to-excellent. Export inspections reached 1.305 million tons last week, up 24% from the prior week and nearly 39% higher year on year, with Mexico and Japan leading demand. U.S. cumulative exports now stand at 65.5 million tons, 28% higher year on year. In Brazil, the second corn harvest is 98% complete, while planting for the 2025/26 first crop has reached 3.2%. Despite market optimism, disease risks such as southern rust and northern blight continue to threaten yields in the Midwest.

Soybeans

Soybean futures opened Tuesday at $10.25 ½ per bushel, recovering 6–7 cents in early trade after Monday’s decline. On Monday, the market closed down 9–11 cents across contracts, pressured by weaker export shipments of 382,806 tons—24% lower than the previous week and nearly 9% below last year. Still, cumulative exports are 11.5% higher year on year at 49.3 million tons, with Indonesia, Mexico, and Italy among the top buyers. Crop ratings improved slightly to 69% good-to-excellent, while 89% of the crop is setting pods and 4% dropping leaves, both in line with the five-year average. Market sentiment also received a boost from news that a Chinese trade envoy will visit Washington, raising hopes for progress in U.S.–China agricultural talks, even as Brazil continues to dominate China’s soybean imports.

Global Market Drivers

Senior Chinese trade negotiator, Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang, will visit Washington this week to meet with U.S. officials, signaling progress in trade talks after President Donald Trump extended a tariff truce earlier this month.

In South America, Brazil’s grain sector faces major structural challenges despite record production forecasts. AgResource projected 176.5 million tons of soybeans and 138.4 million tons of corn for 2025/26, but financial difficulties are deepening—credit access is tightening, and loan defaults are rising sharply. Meanwhile, a federal judge suspended antitrust regulator CADE’s order to terminate the long-standing “soy moratorium,” temporarily protecting the pact that restricts soybean purchases linked to Amazon deforestation.

Argentina also remained in focus—heavy rains in the Pampas increased flood and disease risks for wheat, while frosts added further uncertainty. Still, trade flows showed signs of normalization, as Bunge booked a new soybean meal cargo for China, signaling a slow recovery of Argentine supplies after earlier disruptions.

In Europe, the EU’s MARS unit cut corn yield forecasts due to heat and drought in Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, and southern Ukraine. Significant losses are expected in rain-fed agriculture, although conditions in Spain, northern France, Germany, and Poland remain favorable.

In the Black Sea region, drought persists in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia, with depleted soil moisture threatening winter rapeseed sowing, set to begin next week, while sunflower crops are already reporting sharp yield reductions.

Global weather patterns remain a key factor. The U.S. Midwest is expected to stay mostly dry and cooler this week, which could limit late-season crop development. Canada faces frost risks, while Europe anticipates beneficial rainfall ahead of wheat planting. In Asia, the remnants of Typhoon Kajiki are forecast to bring 100–200 mm of rain and potential flooding to northern Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand.

Trade and logistics also weighed on sentiment. USDA reported Mississippi River barge shipments dropped to 667,000 tons last week from 853,000 tons the prior week, with soybean shipments down 36%. At the same time, barge freight rates in St. Louis rose to $18.51 per short ton.

Protein markets added further complexity. U.S. poultry slaughter rose 1.6% year on year in July to 6.1 billion pounds, while Brazil’s poultry exports remain constrained by avian flu restrictions. These dynamics in the protein sector continue to affect feed grain demand.