Daily Grains Report 25.11.2020

Wheat prices in Chicago increased significantly yesterday. Corn prices have slightly decreased and soybean prices have slightly increased.

The currency pair EUR/USD rose to 1.1893. The price of American light oil rose to 44.91 USD/barrel.

Oil has risen to its highest level since March after a number of pharmaceutical companies announced a high rate of effectiveness of their experimental vaccines against Covid-19, and optimism among traders was further boosted by the transfer of power from the administration of US President Donald Trump to the team of the winner of the November election Joe Biden. Meanwhile, OPEC +, which meets on November 30 and December 1, is considering delaying the gradual recovery of production by 2 million barrels per day by at least three months starting from January. However, smaller Russian oil companies still plan to pump more crude oil this year, despite the global agreement, a group representing producers said on Friday.

 CBOT (Chicago)

  USD/mt

  +/-

Wheat 03.2021

 226.86

 +4.78

Corn 03.2021

 170.23

 -0.24

Soybeans 01.2021

 438.27

 +0.22

Soybean meal 01.2021

 437.51

 +4.30

EURONEXT (Paris)

  EUR/mt

  +/-

Wheat 12.2020

 212.75

 +1.25

Corn 01.2021

 196.00

 +0.25

Rapeseed 01.2021

 411.75

 +3.75

Rapeseed meal 12.20

 196.25

  0.00

 

Yesterday, the prices of wheat futures in Chicago rose by 9.5 - 13 cents / bushel . The growth was driven by a USDA estimate of lower quality of the new wheat crop in the United States. South Korea is looking to buy 80,600 tons of wheat from the United States. As of November 23, 2020, almost 6 million hectares of winter wheat have been sown in Ukraine (98% of the forecast). 0.933 million hectares (99%) were sown with barley, 0.875 million hectares (87%) with rapeseed. The country has used 2/3 of its annual quota to export wheat.

Yesterday, the prices of corn futures in Chicago dropped minimally. Corn was protected from significant decreases by the double-digit growth in wheat. Today's report on production and stocks of ethanol in the United States is expected to show a slight increase over the previous week. There are fears that the new US administration will revise the regulatory framework for ethanol consumption in the United States. Turkey has bought at least 350,000 tons of corn. 155,000 tons of barley were also purchased by Turkey. Tunisia bought 75,000 tons of durum, 92,000 tons of soft wheat and 75,000 tons of barley with delivery in December-January. A group of Thai feed manufacturers has announced a tender for the purchase of 160,000 tons of feed wheat and 80,000 tons of feed barley of any origin and delivery in January-March.

In October, the import of corn in China reached 1.14 million tons, which is 1151% more than in October 2019. Since the beginning of the year, the indicator is 7.82 million tons (-97.3%). The import of wheat for the month is 630,000 tons (+ 127%), and since the beginning of the year 6.69 million tons (+ 163.6%). The import of barley is 1.34 million tons (+ 98.3%), and since the beginning of the year 5.98 million tons (+ 13.4%). The import of sorghum since the beginning of the season is 4.02 million tons (+ 450%).

Yesterday, soybean futures prices in Chicago rose minimally. As of November 1, 2020, sunflower seeds stock in Ukraine were 7.2 million tons compared to 8.8 million tons a year earlier. According to Oil World forecast, in 2020/21 the import of vegetable oils in India will be 14.7 - 14.8 million tons, which is 0.7 - 0.8 million tons more than 2019/20. Imports of sunflower oil will be 20% given its high prices.

Yesterday the price of sunflower oil FOB Ukraine continued to rise while FOB Rotterdam calmed down and decreased minimally. At the same time, palm oil prices in Malaysia have fallen. Given the low oil prices, farmers have the lowest prices of fuels and fertilizers for the last 10 years. However, this may soon change given the growing optimism about the world economy in 2021.