Wheat

September 2025 CBOT wheat closed at $5.15, up ½ cent, as the market balanced steady U.S. conditions with continued uncertainty in global trade and weather. While price gains were minimal, they came against a backdrop of mixed crop progress reports and limited export momentum. Wheat’s upward bias remains fragile, with traders eyeing both domestic yield stability and risks from dryness in key global production regions such as Australia and the Canadian Prairies.

Corn

September 2025 CBOT corn ended the day at $3.85, up 2¼ cents, supported by steady export demand signals and ongoing weather monitoring in the U.S. Midwest. Corn’s modest rise followed a period of persistent price pressure, with year-to-date losses still significant. Crop condition updates showed stable but not spectacular progress, and while market sentiment has firmed slightly, broader macroeconomic uncertainties are capping stronger rallies.

Soybeans

September 2025 CBOT soybeans surged to $9.91¾, up 24 cents, driven largely by political developments between the U.S. and China. A late-night social media post from President Donald Trump urging China to quadruple U.S. soybean orders ahead of the August 12 tariff truce deadline sparked immediate bullish sentiment. While analysts doubt the feasibility of such a dramatic shift away from Brazilian supplies, the announcement energized trading activity and overshadowed otherwise mixed export shipment data.

Key Global Market Drivers

Trump’s comments on soybean trade with China dominated market sentiment, pushing soybean futures sharply higher and influencing broader oilseed markets. While the market reacted positively to the rhetoric, skepticism remains high, given that China imported just 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. last year versus 74.65 million from Brazil. Quadrupling U.S. imports would require near-total displacement of Brazilian shipments, a scenario many traders view as unlikely.

The extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce by 90 days added another layer of uncertainty. While it temporarily removed the risk of imminent tariff escalation, the possibility that increased soybean purchases could be a prerequisite for further extensions leaves traders cautious.

Vegetable oil markets saw strength overnight, with Malaysian palm oil prices climbing 3.03% to 4,384 ringgit on strong demand and supply concerns. The firmness in palm oil spilled over into soyoil futures, reinforcing bullish undertones in the global oilseed complex. Analysts highlighted the ongoing substitution effects between palm, canola, and soybean oil as a key driver of volatility.

Weather remained a critical focus, with U.S. traders monitoring rainfall in the Midwest during late-stage crop development. Dryness in Australia’s wheat belt and parts of the Canadian Prairies is raising yield concerns, contributing to heightened volatility as forecasts evolve.

The Black Sea region’s freight market continued to reflect weaker Asian grain demand, with rates from the region to South China significantly below last year. Despite this, renewed Chinese buying interest in Ukrainian barley—over 300,000 tons booked—suggests potential demand recovery, though increased vessel availability and reduced shipments of other bulk commodities are keeping freight rates subdued.

In Europe, persistent rains delayed the rapeseed harvest, though early yields and oil content have been encouraging. The European Commission cut its harvest forecast to 18.5 million tons, still above last year’s level but below processing requirements. Romania’s harvest is expected at 1.8 million tons, a sharp increase from 2024.

U.S. export sales data added near-term support, with wheat sales at 737,831 metric tons exceeding expectations, corn sales for the new crop reaching 3.16 million tons, and soybeans securing large bookings from multiple buyers including Taiwan, Egypt, and the Netherlands.

Looking forward, the USDA Crop Production report will be the key driver this week, with updated yield and production estimates poised to set the tone for short-term price direction. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and weather uncertainties continue to frame the broader market narrative.