Grain Highlights 22.12.2020

22 Dec, 2020
Grain Highlights 22.12.2020
According to The Australian Financial Review, the wheat production in Australia will reach a record of 34 - 35 million tons in 2020/21.

Wheat

- According to the latest forecast of ICAR, the wheat exports from Russia will reach 37.5 million tons in 2020/21 compared to 40 million tons in the previous estimate. The reduction is due to the export tax, which will be imposed in the period 15.02 - 30.06.2021.

- According to data and forecasts of The Australian Financial Review, the wheat production in Australia will reach a record of 34 - 35 million tons in 2020/21. About half of the areas have been harvested so far. Exports will reach 22 million tons. The schedule for wheat exports from Australia is busy until August - September, which has not happened since 2016/17. In the coming weeks, 1 million tons of wheat are expected to be exported to China. It can be argued that the China will not impose an import duty on Australian wheat, which will return the market to the old framework.

 

Grains

- During the week of December 14-20, 464,000 tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk (+73.6% compared to the previous week and +66.8% higher than prior year). 321,500 tons of wheat (+20.3% and +13.1%) and 142,500 tons of barley were exported.

- According to statistics of Ukraine, as of 01.12.2020 grain stocks in the country were 23.1 million tons, which is 7.4 million tons less than the previous year. The available grains were:

  • wheat- 6.8 million tons (-16%)
  • corn- 14.1 million tons (-27%)
  • barley- 1.4 million tons (-37%)

Sunflower stocks were 6.5 million tons (-19%). Exports are strong enough for the country to impose export restrictions in the coming months.

- In their December report, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised their estimate for the wheat production in Canada in 2020/21 by 1 million tons to a total of 35.2 million tons (32.3 million tons in 2019/20). Exports will reach 25 million tons (+0.2 and 24.5), domestic consumption- 9 million tons (+0.3 and 8.7) and ending stocks are predicted to be 6.8 million tons (+0.5 and 5.5).

Other productions are estimated at:

  • corn- 13.6 million tons (13.4 million tons for 2019/20)
  • barley- 10.7 million tons (10.4)
  • canola- 18.7 million tons (19.6)
  • soybeans- 6.4 million tons (6.1)

- According to Imea, corn production in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso was 35.45 million tons in 2019/20 and domestic consumption reached 10.44 million tons. In 2020/21, corn production is predicted at 36.29 million tons (+2.3% compared to 2019/20). However, domestic consumption will increase by 17.9% and will amount to 33.8% of production.

 

Oilseeds and vegetable oils

- The authorities in Russia are ready to introduce a 30% export tax on soybeans and not less than 165 EUR/ton. Until now, soybean exports have not been subject to any export taxes.

- In November, Russia produced 966,000 tons of vegetable oils, which is a record monthly level (+4% compared to November 2019). Sunseed oil production was also at a record level of 821,000 tons (+5%).

- During the week of December 14-20, 52,000 tons of sunseed oil were exported from Russian ports, which is the same level as previous week. For the period 01.09 - 20.12.2020, total sunseed oil exports from Russian ports reach 632,200 tons (754,900 tons a year earlier).

- According to the forecast of the European Commission, rapeseed imports into the EU (excluding the UK) will reach 5.2 million tons in 2020/21, which is 0.2 million tons more than the previous estimate and the estimate was 6.2 million tons in 2019/20. Domestic consumption of rapeseed in the EU will be 20.6 million tons (+0.2 and 22.1), and the production is estimated at 15.9 million tons (+3%). Soybean imports will be 15.2 million tons (-0.3 and 14.7), domestic consumption- 18.2 million tons (+3%) and the soybean production is predicted to reach 2.6 million tons (2.7).

- In Argentine ports, 130 ships are expected to load 4 million tons of soybeans, meal and oil. The delay is related to the strike of port workers in the country. Daily losses are estimated at USD 50-100 million. This strike is one of the key reasons for rising prices in the entire oil sector around the world.

- According to the forecast of Oil World, the world's biodiesel production will be 44.8 million tons in 2020 (45.92 million tons in 2019). The production is expected to increase and reach 46.8 million tons in 2021.