Grain Highlights 20.03.2021

Soyoil stocks in China continue to decline and for the first time in three years are below 800,000 tons given the reduced demand for soymeal.

- According to APC-Inform, in January sunseed meal exports from Russia increased by 22% compared to December to a total of 204,000 tons, which is the highest level for the last nine months. During the period of September - January, exports decreased by 13% to 717,000 tons.

- At the beginning of March, total grain stocks in Ukraine were 15.9 million tons, which is 2 million tons less than the previous year. Wheat stocks were 4.6 million tons (-9%), corn stocks- 9.9 million tons (-7%), barley stocks- 820,100 tons (-48%), sunseed stocks- 3.6 million tons (-31%).

- According to the forecast of Strategie Grains, soft wheat production in the EU will reach 129.6 million tons in 2021/22 (+8.6% compared to 2020/21). Barley production is estimated at 54 million tons (-2.6%) and corn production at 65 million tons (+4%). In 2020/21, wheat exports from the EU and the UK will reach a total of 25.2 million tons, which is 900,000 tons less than previous estimate. Ending stocks increased by almost 1 million tons to 11.3 million tons. Barley stocks decreased by 1.2 million tons to 7.6 million tons.

- On Friday, commodity funds in Chicago were net sellers of 35,000 contracts of corn, 14,000 contracts of soybeans and 5,500 contracts of wheat.

- During the week of March 8-14, 351,200 tons of wheat were exported from Canada (397,000 tons a week earlier), durum 126,300 tons (168,500 tons), 0.2 tons (35,400) soybeans, 304,500 tons (254,400) canola.

- According to the forecast of Oil World, during the period of March - April sunseed oil exports from Argentina will exceed expectations by 30,000 - 50,000 tons. Farmers have stepped up sales due to high sunseed oil prices. In 2020/21, the sunflower production will reach 2.58 million tons compared to 2.67 million tons in the previous season. Sunseed oil production is expected to reach 1.1 million tons (1.14) and sunseed meal production is predicted at 1.07 million tons (1.09).

- As of March 17, 2021, Argentine farmers have harvested 64% of the sunseed areas. 1.74 million tons were harvested at an average yield of 2.14 tons/hectare. According to the forecast of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, sunseed production will exceed 2.7 million tons (3 million tons in 2020), which is the lowest level since 2014.

- As of March 17, 2021, 5.9% of the corn area in Argentina has been harvested, according to data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. 22% of the crops are in good and excellent condition (17% a week earlier and 35% a year earlier).

- On March 19, 2021, China bought 800,000 tons of corn from the United States. Thus, the total purchases for the week reach almost 4 million tons.

- The authorities in China will take measures to reduce the consumption of corn and soybeans. Replacement with other crops such as rice, potatoes, wheat and oilseeds will be considered. According to USDA data, corn consumption in China will be 289 million tons in 2020/21 and soymeal consumption is projected at 116.7 million tons. In 2030, consumption will be 300 million tons and 120 million tons, respectively.

- Soyoil stocks in China continue to decline and for the first time in three years are below 800,000 tons given the reduced demand for soymeal. According to data from CNGOIC, as of March 14, 2021, soyoil stocks were 760,000 tons (-80,000 tons per week), which is 60,000 tons less than at the end of February and 650,000 tons less than a year ago. Weekly soybean crush decreased by 230,000 tons to 1.45 million tons (-20,000 compared to the previous year), and stocks decreased by 450,000 tons to 5.19 million tons. Soymeal stocks fell by 110,000 tons to 760,000 tons.

- In the period of January-February, China imported 4.8 million tons of corn, which is 414.4% more than the previous year. Imports of wheat amounted to 2.48 million tons (+265.1%) and barley imports reached 1.32 million tons (+79.4%).

- On March 18, 2021, Tunisia purchased 50,000 tons of durum wheat, 117,000 tons of soft wheat and 75,000 tons of feed barley all with delivery in April-May.

- In the first two weeks of March, 397,500 tons of wheat were delivered to Egypt, compared to 794,100 tons in the first two weeks of February.