Grain Highlights 15.05.2021

SovEcon raised its forecast for the wheat production in Russia in 2021 from 80.7 million tons to 81.7 million tons. Growth is mainly due to the larger wheat areas in Russia.

- In 2021, sunseed areas in Russia will reach 9.2 million hectares. With an average yield of 1.68 tons/hectare, sunseed production will be within the record high 15 - 15.5 million tons according to Rusagro's forecast.

- According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, the total grain production in the country will reach 120 million tons in 2021. The wheat production is Russia is expected at 85 million tons and wheat exports at 40 million tons.

- According to the forecast of Strategie Grains, the soft wheat production in the EU will be 129.6 million tons in 2021, which is 8.5% more than last year. The soft wheat production estimate in France was reduced by 0.5 million tons to 36.1 million tons. The barley production in France is expected to reach 53.7 million tons (-0.3), which is 3% below the 2020 result. The corn production is predicted to reach 65.2 million tons (+3% compared to 2020).

- Rainfall in France (May 3 - 10) has stabilized the condition of wheat and barley crops. As of 10.05.2021, 79% of the soft wheat crops are in good and excellent condition in the country - no change from the previous week. The estimate is also unchanged for winter barley (76%) and durum crops condition (69%).

- After the closure of the cracked bridge on the Mississippi River around the city of Memphis, about 800 barges have been stranded.

- In the May report, analysts from the USDA expect a world's total sunseed production of 54.92 million tons in 2021/22 (+5.22 million tons compared to 2020/21). The production of sunseed oil is projected at 21.15 million tons (+1.96). The sunseed production in Ukraine is estimated at 16.7 million tons (+2.6) and the production of sunseed oil at 6.99 million tons (+1.056). Sunseed production in Russia is projected at 14.5 million tons (+1.23) and sunseed oil production at 5.49 million tons (+0.35). In the EU, sunseed production is expected to reach 10 million tons (+1.15) and sunseed oil 3.78 (+0.32).

- In the May report, analysts from the USDA expect the world's rapeseed production to reach 73.2 million tons in 2021/22 (71.4), including rapeseed production in:

  • Canada - 20.5 million tons (+1.5)
  • EU - 16.6 million tons (+0.43)
  • Ukraine - 3 million tons (+0.2)
  • United States - 1.8 million tons

- As of 12.05.2021, 70.6% of the soybean areas or 33 million tons of soybeans have been harvested in Argentina. According to the forecast of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, total soybean production will reach 43 million tons. Corn was harvested on 24.6% of the area (+1.9% for the week) and 13.15 million tons of corn have been harvested.

- According to ABS, 2.31 million tons of wheat were exported from Australia in March, which is 12% less than in February.