The currency pair EUR/USD decreased to 1.1845. The price of US WTI crude oil rose to 75.23 USD/barrel.

OPEC+ delayed its ministerial meeting until Friday to hold more talks on oil output policy, OPEC+ sources said on Thursday, after the United Arab Emirates blocked a plan for an immediate easing of cuts and their extension to the end of 2022. Earlier on Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies seemed to have reached a preliminary agreement to increase production by 400,000 barrels a day every month from August to December. 

Yesterday, CBOT September SRW wheat futures prices fell by 14 cents to close at $6.65 1/2 a bushel. The harvesting campaign of wheat in Kansas is nearly 50% complete. Yield varies between 30 - 60 bushels/acre and the quality is good. In the northern states and Canada, the drought remains. In general, wheat crops around the world are in very good condition and so far no one sees a shortage. Weekly export sales of wheat from the United States were at the level of 226,331 tons (374,147 tons a week earlier and 382,052 tons a year earlier). Export commitments reached 6.4 million tons (7.16 million tons a year earlier). SovEcon estimates the wheat production in Russia in 2021/22 at 84.6 million tons and increased wheat exports estimate by 4.9% to 38.4 million tons. The Meteorological Service of Ukraine expects a wheat production in the country of 28.5 million tons.

Yesterday, Chicago December corn futures prices rose by 1/2 cent to close at $5.89 a bushel. The Chicago Board of Trade will be closed on Monday. Usually 04.07.2021 is a turning point in pricing and traders were cautious. Drought is spreading over larger areas in the United States and this could have a significant impact on the corn production. In Western Europe, high temperatures affect crops, but so far it is not critical and forecasts remain high. Oil will definitely be a temporary support factor, because OPEC+ will find a solution to the quotas soon. In May, 11.37 million tons of corn were used for ethanol production in the United States (+9.6% compared to April and +49% compared to May 2020). Since the beginning of the season, consumption reaches 94.62 million tons and to reach the annual forecast of the USDA a monthly corn consumption of 11.23 million tons is required. The weekly export sales of corn from the United States were 14,979 tons of the old crop (216,284 and 361,061) and 67,635 tons of the new corn crop (262,720). The export commitments for the old corn crop reach 69.55 million tons (42.31) and 15.75 million tons for the new corn crop (3.89). US ethanol stocks rose by 2.1% to 21.572 million barrels. The average corn yield in the United States of 179 bushels/acre is questionable and requires more than the current rainfall. In the southern regions of Brazil, frosts interrupt the vegetation of corn crops. Such low temperatures have not been observed for years. StoneX projects the corn production in Brazil at 87.93 million tons, which is 1.75 million tons below the previous estimate. Barley is already being harvested in the Black Sea region, yields are excellent and prices are logically falling.

Yesterday, Chicago November soybean futures prices fell by 3 1/2 cents to close at $13.95 1/2 a bushel. Data on stock and soybean areas was quite supportive of soybeans and indicated that prices would rise and remain high over a longer period of time. There are fears that soybean crops in the United States are in poor condition and this would limit yields. It would take a lot of rainfall to reach a good soybean production. It is increasingly difficult to see an average yield of 51 bushels/acre in the United States and we will be lucky if soybean yield reaches 50 bushels/acre. In May, 4.72 million tons of soybeans were processed in the United States (+3.4% compared to May 2020). Weekly US export sales of soybeans were 92,751 tons (141,669 and 241,678) of the old crop and 1,670,056 tons of the new crop (841,650). Export commitments for the old crop reached 61.84 million tons (44.82) and 9.28 million tons of the new crop (6.94). Sales of soymeal reached 417,387 tons and weekly soyoil sales were 2,323 tons. India lifted restriction on imports of refined palm oil.