Grains Market Overview 23.07.2021

Yesterday, CBOT SRW wheat, corn and soybeans futures prices fell sharply. In Paris, the prices of the new wheat and corn crops fell, while rapeseed futures prices rose.

The currency pair EUR/USD fell to 1.1780. The price of US WTI crude oil rose to 71.91 USD/barrel.

Oil prices have risen. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil stocks at a key hub in Cushing and Oklahoma have fallen to their lowest levels since January 2020. Gasoline consumption is approaching 2019 levels in the United States, India, Spain and Portugal, while demand fell by 6% in the UK. China provided 3 million tons of oil from its reserve to processors or about 22 million barrels earlier this month to try to stem the sharp rise in prices.

Chicago Contract USD/mt +/-
Wheat September 254.36 -6.80
Corn December 220.95 -2.85
Soybeans November 511.56 -10.10
Soymeal December 403.45 -8.82


Paris Contract EUR/mt +/-
Wheat September 210.00 -3.75
Corn June 260.75 +0.75
Rapeseed August 529.00 +5.25


Yesterday, Chicago September wheat futures prices fell by 18 1/2 cents to close at $6.92 1/4 a bushel. Recent rainfall is unlikely to significantly change the state of spring wheat crops in the United States. Canada - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada have lowered their forecast for the wheat production in Canada in 2021 by 0.3 million tons to 31.4 million tons (35.2 million tons in 2020). A very good wheat production is still expected in Canada. In the week ended 15.07.2021, the export sales of wheat from the United States were 473,166 tons (424,691 tons a week earlier and 586,663 tons a year earlier). Export commitments reached a total of 7.59 million tons (8.84 million tons a year earlier). Pakistan is looking to buy 500,000 tons of wheat and Ethiopia is looking to purchase 400,000 tons. In Argentina, 96% of the planned areas are sown with winter wheat. The FAS USDA forecasts a wheat production in the EU in 2021 of 138.4 million tons compared to the official forecast of 138.2 million tons. In the week ended on 21.07.2021, wheat exports from the French port of Rouen reached 65,529 new (27,702 tons a week earlier). According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Romania, the wheat production in the country will reach a record 12 million tons in 2021.

Yesterday, Chicago December corn futures prices decreased by 7 1/4 cents to close at $5.61 1/4 a bushel. The market saw greater chances of precipitation in the United States and Europe over the next two weeks and sales followed. The market is volatile because it needs to accurately assess rainfall and whether it will lead to a yield over 176 bushels/acre. Rainfall is distributed in two regions of the United States. Weekly export sales of corn from the United States decreased net by 88,491 tons (+138,817 and +220,585). Since the beginning of the season, export commitments have reached 69.77 million tons. Sales of corn from the new crop were 47,693 tons (133,211 and 638,714) and export commitments for the new corn crop reach 16.13 million tons (7.69). Sorghum sales also fell to a net drop of 52,200 tons. Today, Chinese authorities will hold a tender for the sale of 23,488 tons of Ukrainian corn.

Yesterday, CBOT November soybean futures prices fell by 27 1/2 cents to close at $13.62 1/4 a bushel. The fall in soyoil prices over the past two sessions has also pushed soybean prices up. Weather is currently the most important factor on the soybean market, which brings instability to the market. Weekly export sales of soybeans from the United States are at the level of 62,038 tons (21,653 and 307,486). Export commitments reached a total of 61.99 million tons (46.39). Sales of soybeans from the new crop reached 176,267 tons (290,750 and 2,300,503) and export commitments for the new crop add up to a total of 9.86 million tons (10.39). Sales of soymeal were 68,288 tons and soyoil sales were only 708 tons. The weekly report of the USDA Soybean Crush showed an expected margin of 2.42 USD compared to 2.82 USD from the assessment of 15.07.2021. Brazil's Pátria Agronegócios predicts that the new soybean area in Brazil will increase by 6.7% to 40.85 million hectares. This will lead to a soybean production of 144.7 million tons. Margins of soybean processors in China remain negative.

Export sales of wheat from the United States are growing steadily. Sales of soybeans from the old crop are understandably weak, but those from the new crop are also quite weak. Authorities in China have announced that in the second half of the year they expect a slowdown in grain imports compared to the same period in 2020.

Yesterday's decline does not seem to be seen as a significant drop, but rather as a slight correction. In the last few days, however, precipitation has fallen in parts of Russia and Ukraine, which could be a turning point for the market in the Black Sea region.