Once again, IKAR has increased its forecast for the 2023/24 wheat production in Russia by 1.5 million tons to 89.5 million tons, and the total grain production by 2 million tons to 139 million tons, including an increase of the barley production estimate of +0.5 million tons. The Russian wheat production has become very large once again. Results above 82 – 84 million tons lead to a sustained retention of low prices. At the same time, Ukraine is also having a good wheat production.

During the week of August 7th to 13th, 545,000 tons of grain were exported from the Russian port of Novorossiysk (559,000 tons the previous week), including 486,000 tons of wheat and 60,000 tons of barley. The largest customers for wheat were Kenya with 121,000 tons, Sudan with 67,000 tons, Peru with 55,000 tons, Bangladesh with 52,000 tons, and Saudi Arabia for barley.

From July 1st to August 14th, 2023, Ukraine exported 3.122 million tons of grain (2.65 million tons the previous year), including 848,000 tons in August (948,000 tons). Wheat exports reached 1.25 million tons (429,000 tons), barley exports were 385,000 tons (90,000 tons), and corn exports totalled 1.481 million tons (328,000 tons). After the closure of the grain corridor, exports decreased slightly, but larger declines are possible in the coming weeks.

As of August 1st, 2023, grain reserves in Kazakhstan amounted to 5.944 million tons, including 4.7 million tons of wheat, 889,000 tons of barley, 61,600 tons of corn, and others.

According to data from FranceAgriMer as of August 7th, 2023, the harvesting campaign of soft wheat in France has been completed on 89% of the fields (+2% for the week and 94% compared to the previous year). 85% of the corn crops are in good and excellent condition (81% the previous week and 53% the previous year).

According to the FAS USDA forecast, soybean imports to China are expected to reach a record 100 million tons in 2022/23. Import will remain high in the last quarter of the year due to Brazil offering a lot of soy at a low price. In the first 10 months of 2022/23, imports were 84.5 million tons, including 30 million tons from the US (+10% compared to 2021/22).

The US Meteorological Service predicts that El Niño will continue until February 2024 with a 90% probability. The phenomenon has already altered the world's climate. The weather will become drier in West Africa, Southeast Asia, and the northern parts of South America, while wetter conditions are expected in the southern parts of South America. Drought will harm the wheat crops  in Australia, palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia, but it will boost all productions in Argentina and the southern parts of Brazil.

Abiove has raised its forecast for the 2022/23 soybean production in Brazil by 1 million tons to 157 million tons (+27.1 compared to 2021/22). Exports will reach 98.5 million tons (+19.8 compared to 2021/22), ending stocks will be 6.7 million tons (-0.6 and +2.8). Soybean processing in Brazil is expected at 53.5 million tons.

Conab has raised its forecast for the second corn production in Brazil for 2022/23 by 2.1 million tons to 100.2 million tons. Thus, the total corn production will be 130 million tons (113.1 in 2021/22). Domestic consumption of corn will reach 79.4 million tons (unchanged), exports are estimated at 50 million tons (+2), and ending corn stocks are projected at 10.5 million tons (+0.2).

According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 329,100 tons of canola were exported from Australia in June (503,700 in May). Main recipients of the product were Pakistan with 120,600 tons, Japan with 71,800 tons, and Belgium with 62,060 tons. Market operators expect monthly exports to be between 150,000 and 300,000 tons until November. From October to June, canola exports amounted to 4.81 million tons, exceeding the record and the previous year's 4.64 million tons. The largest customers were Belgium with 887,500 tons, Germany with 783,300 tons, and the UAE with 678,700 tons.