The Russian government has approved a wheat export quota of 11 million tons for the period February 15 to June 30, 2025. During this period, the export of barley, rye, and corn will be prohibited. For wheat exported under this quota, an export tax of 50%, but no less than 100 EUR/ton, will apply.
For the week of November 4–10, the export taxes on Russian grain were as follows:
- Wheat: 3,696.3 rubles/ton (up from 3,020.3 the previous week)
- Barley: 1,767.7 rubles/ton (up from 1,166)
- Corn: 4,127 rubles/ton (up from 3,584.1).
From July to November 2024, grain exports from Russia reached 30.1 million tons (-1% compared to the previous year). Wheat exports were 25.3 million tons (+1.7%).
Between July 1 and November 28, 2024, Ukraine exported 17.978 million tons of grain (up from 12.921 million a year earlier). November exports totaled 3.579 million tons (compared to 3.681 million last year), including:
- 8.837 million tons of wheat (up from 5.755 million)
- 1.856 million tons of barley (up from 0.87 million)
- 6.976 million tons of corn (up from 6.07 million).
According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture, as of November 28, 2024:
- 98% of grain areas have been harvested, yielding 53.903 million tons with an average yield of 7.97 tons/hectare.
- Corn: 96% harvested, 24.161 million tons collected, with an average yield of 6.43 tons/hectare (potential yield: 25.2 million tons).
- Sunseed: 96% harvested, 10.222 million tons collected, with an average yield of 2.1 tons/hectare (potential yield: 10.5 million tons).
- Soybeans: 99% harvested, 6.014 million tons collected, with an average yield of 2.3 tons/hectare.
In 2024, the cost of rail wagon grain transport from Ukraine dropped from 21.3 USD/ton to 14–15 USD/ton.
Turkey announced a tender to sell 100,000 tons of durum wheat on an FOB basis, with exports scheduled for January 6–27.
According to AGPM, France's 2024/25 corn production is forecasted to reach 13.9 million tons (up from 12.6 million in 2023/24).
The European Commission lowered its 2024/25 wheat production estimate for the EU to 112.6 million tons, the lowest in 12 years (-10% compared to 2023/24). Exports remain unchanged at 25 million tons (down from 35.3 million in 2023/24). The corn production is projected at 59.6 million tons (down 3% from last year), with imports of 19.5 million tons (+0.5) and stocks of 19.4 million tons (up from 17.4). Barley production is forecasted at 49.8 million tons, with stocks at 2.6 million tons.
According to EIA, U.S. ethanol production reached a record 1.12 million barrels per day for the week of November 16–22, 2024 (+6,000 barrels per day compared to the record two weeks prior and +108,000 barrels per day year-on-year). Ethanol exports were 158,000 barrels per day. Ending ethanol stocks as of November 22, 2024, stood at 22.87 million barrels (+0.306 million week-on-week and +1.49 million year-on-year).
Agroconsult predicts Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean production will reach 172.2 million tons, a 10.7% increase from 2023/24 and exceeding the current record of 162.4 million tons from 2022/23. Exports are expected to total 103.4 million tons (up from 98.2 million in 2023/24). Recent rainfall has raised river levels, enabling barges to operate at 50% capacity.