Over the past week, the EUR/USD currency pair declined by 0.0004 to 1.0426. Meanwhile, the price of US WTI light crude oil rose by $1.14 per barrel, reaching $70.60 per barrel.

Oil prices increased amid optimism that efforts to stimulate China’s economy would drive its recovery. However, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar limited the gains. China, the world’s largest oil importer, revised its 2023 GDP growth figures upward by 2.7% but stated that the adjustment would not significantly impact this year’s growth. Chinese authorities also announced plans to issue special government bonds worth $411 billion next year. Beijing is boosting fiscal stimulus to revive its struggling economy. The latest weekly report on US crude oil inventories by the American Petroleum Institute revealed a decrease in crude stockpiles by 3.2 million barrels last week, market sources reported on Tuesday.

Over the past week, March SRW wheat futures in Chicago increased by 13 1/2 cents to close at $5.46 1/2 per bushel.

For the previous week, CBOT March corn futures rose by 7 3/4 cents to close at $4.54 per bushel.

Throughout the past week, Chicago January soybean futures gained 5 1/2 cents, reaching $9.80 per bushel.

Accumulated US export sales for the week ending December 19.

*Source: USDA

Weather:

Over the past week in the United States, temperatures dropped—significantly in the US Corn Belt and slightly in the US Wheat Belt. There were scattered showers in the central parts of the country. In Western Europe, it was not very cold, with rainfall. On the Balkans, there was considerable snow and rain. Rainfall occurred in Ukraine, while snow fell in Russia. In Australia, light rainfall was observed in the east. In Brazil, rainfall across the entire country continued. However, in Argentina, it remained dry for the second consecutive week.

Over the next 10 days, the Corn Belt in the United States will experience a continued sharp cold spell with moderate snowfall. In the US Wheat Belt, temperatures will also drop—quite cold in Kansas with light precipitation. In Western Europe, warm weather with heavy rainfall in France, while Germany will be cold with snow. Hungary and Poland will remain relatively dry with temperatures around 0°C. On the Balkans, it will be quite warm at the beginning of 2025, with no precipitation. By the end of the first ten days of the month, cooler weather will return with snow. In southern Ukraine, temperatures around 0°C are expected with no precipitation. In the central and northern regions, cold weather with snow. In southernmost parts of Russia, temperatures will stay around 0°C with no precipitation, but moving northward, temperatures drop significantly accompanied by snowfall. In India, moderate temperatures with no rainfall. In China, weather will not be very cold but it will stay dry. In Indonesia and Malaysia, moderate rainfall is expected. In western and southern parts of Australia, it will be quite warm with no precipitation. In the east, weather will be warm but with occasional showers. In Brazil, rainfall continues. In Argentina, warm weather persists, with very warm conditions in the south. Light rainfall is expected across the country. Overall, the situation becomes critical only in Argentina due to the lack of rainfall. In Russia, moderate snowfall occurred, and more is expected.

GRAIN EXPORT:

* US (September- August)  /  * Russia, Ukraine and the EU (July- June)

Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Export Performance and Market Trends

Wheat:
Last week, U.S. wheat exports were moderate, while corn and soybean exports performed well. Weekly export sales of wheat and corn were excellent, while soybean sales were moderate. Wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine dropped significantly during the week, although demand for Ukrainian corn increased.

On Friday, wheat prices rose in Chicago and Paris. For the week ending December 19, 2024:

• U.S. wheat export sales totaled 612,408 tons (457,933 tons the previous week and 276,406 tons a year earlier).
• Export commitments reached 16.76 million tons (15.27 million previously).
• Weekly wheat exports stood at 376,240 tons (405,744 and 341,982 previously).
• Season-to-date exports amounted to 11.57 million tons (9.07 million).

Russia’s 2024 wheat production was 82 million tons, with production in the southern export region dropping by 30% compared to 2023 due to frost and drought. In Turkey, grain production in 2024 reached 39 million tons (-7.5%), including 20.8 million tons of wheat (-5.5%), 8.1 million tons of barley (-12%), and 8.1 million tons of corn (-12%).

IKAR revised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in 2025/26 to 41 million tons, compared to SovEcon’s estimate of 36.4 million tons. Algeria purchased 1.17 million tons of milling wheat, a significant single purchase, while Egypt bought 1.27 million tons, primarily from Russia. These countries are stockpiling wheat ahead of export quotas from Russia and dwindling Ukrainian export potential.

From July 1 to December 21, 2024, Ukraine exported 21.256 million tons of grain (17.484 million a year earlier), including 9.613 million tons of wheat (7.255 million), 1.968 million tons of barley (0.991 million), and 9.351 million tons of corn (9.097 million). Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts 2024/25 grain export potential at 46.9 million tons (55.6 million previously), including 16.2 million tons of wheat (18.3 million), 2.9 million tons of barley (2.5 million), and 20.5 million tons of corn (29.2 million).

Corn:
On Friday, corn futures also increased in Chicago and Paris. For the week ending December 19, 2024:

• U.S. weekly corn export sales reached 1,711,266 tons (1,174,565 and 1,242,116 previously).
• Export commitments totaled 38.02 million tons (29.79 million).
• Weekly exports were 1,123,883 tons (1,054,466 and 1,279,454 previously).
• Season-to-date exports stood at 14.75 million tons (11.71 million).

Ethanol production in the United States for the week ending December 20, 2024, reached 1.107 million barrels per day (+4,000 barrels), while ethanol stocks rose by 438,000 barrels to 23.074 million barrels. Favorable rainfall in Argentina increased projected corn acreage to 6.6 million hectares. In December, Brazil is expected to export 4.1 million tons of corn, according to Anec.

In Ukraine, corn prices in December stabilized at 205–207 USD/ton and may rise to 210–215 USD/ton in January. Ukraine is becoming a key player in the global corn market, with high demand expected in January. However, competition with US corn in the EU market could intensify by February–March.

Following strong U.S. corn export sales, U.S. farmers have depleted their stocks, and future sales will depend on price increases. Ukraine is expected to influence prices, but by February–March, Ukrainian corn may face competition in the EU market from pre-contracted, cheaper U.S. corn shipments. Despite this, the U.S. corn remains 10 USD/ton cheaper. The market is expected to remain volatile in January–February, with deficits predicted in April–May, leading to peak seasonal prices before Brazil’s second corn production.

Soybeans:
On Friday, soybean and soymeal futures fell in Chicago, while soyoil futures rose. In Paris and Canada, rapeseed and canola futures also declined. For the week ending December 19, 2024:

• U.S. soybean export sales totaled 978,351 tons (1,424,158 and 849,585 previously).
• Export commitments reached 39.69 million tons (36.33 million).
• Weekly exports were 1,573,186 tons (1,686,317 and 1,081,669 previously).
• Season-to-date exports amounted to 26.75 million tons (21.70 million).

Brazil’s soybean harvesting campaign will start in early January, with larger volumes expected by the end of the month. Anec forecasts Brazilian soybean exports in December at 1.62 million tons and soymeal exports at 2.1 million tons. Conab predicts Brazil’s soybean exports for 2024/25 will reach 105.5 million tons, with January–November exports at 96.8 million tons.

Rainfall in Argentina:
In Argentina, recent rainfall has been limited, though crops are in good condition. Rain forecasts for the next 10 days are divided; sufficient rainfall would ease concerns about drought through mid-January, aiding corn and soybean crop development.

Market Outlook:
Trading volumes have been low due to holidays, a trend expected to continue into early January. Wheat and corn markets appear to have rebounded, but soy remains dependent on Brazil’s strong production and Argentina’s weather.

Recent weeks suggest that wheat and corn prices have likely bottomed out, with the market now reversing upward. Soybean prices, however, remain dependent on Brazil's nearly certain large production and Argentina’s likely good to excellent production. Trading volumes have been low over the past two weeks due to the holidays, a trend expected to continue through early January.

U.S. soybean export sales have declined, possibly temporarily, despite Brazil’s large production. However, this production seems priced into the market. As a result, soybean prices will depend on rainfall in Argentina, which remains uncertain. U.S. soyoil and soymeal export sales are at very high levels amid reduced global palm oil stocks. China’s hog herd is finally recovering, which will drive new soybean purchases, not necessarily from the U.S. Biofuel markets in the U.S. face uncertainty due to the strong oil lobby under Trump. The new president will struggle to balance oil interests with the farming community that strongly supported him. However, the threat of tariffs may allow the United States to negotiate better export terms for biofuels, oil, and natural gas. Export growth will likely be a key strategy for the new administration, reshaping global trade flows.

Changes in FOB prices of major exporters in recent days:

During the week, FOB prices around the world showed mixed movements.

Wheat: FOB wheat prices mostly increased. The FOB price of Bulgarian wheat was at 234 USD/ton (+$4/ton for the week and -$6/ton a week earlier). The FOB price of Australian milling wheat stood at 227 USD/ton (-$1 for the week and -$10 a week earlier), wheat with 10% protein was priced at 221 USD/ton (-$1 for the week and -$8 a week earlier), and the FOB price of Australian feed wheat was 192 USD/ton ($193 a week earlier). Wheat prices from Australia and Argentina remain low and highly competitive compared to those from the Black Sea region.

Corn: FOB corn prices showed little movement except in the United States, where prices rose significantly. The FOB price of Brazilian corn increased by 3 USD/ton during the week, reaching 213 USD/ton (+$1 a week earlier).

Soybeans: FOB soybean prices were mixed. The FOB price of Brazilian soybeans dropped by 8 USD/ton (-$4 a week earlier) to 384 USD/ton.

Vegetable Oils: Over the past week, global vegetable oil prices saw minimal increases, except in South America and for sunseed oil in Ukraine, which experienced declines.

Export prices Black Sea, USD/mt (compared to the previous week):